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<\/a>Chris Low<\/p>\nUniversity of Utah history professor Chris Low<\/a> has closely researched desalination and its role in the social, economic, and political life of the Middle East, calling the countries that rely on it \u201csaltwater kingdoms.\u201d<\/p>\n \u2018Roughly 100 million people\u00a0in the Gulf region rely on desalination plants for their water,\u2019 Low wrote in a March 5 article in The Conversation<\/a>. \u2018Without them,\u00a0almost nobody would be able to live\u00a0in Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE \u2013 or\u00a0much of Saudi Arabia, including its capital, Riyadh.\u2019<\/p>\n Yet these plants are easily targeted by advanced weaponry and low-tech sabotage. Since the start of the war on Feb. 28, national and international news media have sought out Low\u2019s perspective. His forthcoming book, \u201cSaltwater Kingdoms, Fossil-Fueled Water and Climate Change in Arabia,\u201d is under contract with the University of California Press.<\/p>\n @theU sat down with Low, who directs the U\u2019s Middle East Center<\/a>, to discuss what\u2019s at stake. The conversation is edited for length and clarity.<\/p>\n Water infrastructure is hardly the most exciting subject. What inspired you, as a historian, to study the Middle East\u2019s desalination industry?<\/p>\n When I was researching my first book, Imperial Mecca<\/a>, which was about the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca, I was trying to tell the story of pilgrimage-related pandemics of cholera in the late 19th century. That backed me into water infrastructure, so I started to tell this story of Saudi Arabia\u2019s pilgrimage experience and water infrastructure. As I worked through the end of that project, I collected a variety of Ottoman, British, American, and Arabic-language materials on desalination. I decided that my next project would tell the story of the Gulf inside out. Don\u2019t focus on the oil. It\u2019s important, but I wanted to reframe these petrostates as what I call \u2018Saltwater Kingdoms.\u2019 They produce the most man-made fossil fueled water in the world.<\/p>\n How did desalination become so critical to the Gulf states?<\/p>\n Everybody starts with the basic equation, the Gulf equals oil. We think of these oil-wealthy gulf monarchs as petro-states. Fair enough. Prior to oil wealth, these were sparsely populated Bedouin territories, by modern standards, destitute. No material wealth. The transformation is quite obvious. What I think people tend to not understand is the interconnection between oil wealth and this water infrastructure. The 20th century is also a story of the installation of massive desalination units all across the Gulf. This process started even before the discovery of oil. The steam and coal-powered British Empire, as it\u2019s moving between the Mediterranean to India, for example, they realize, \u2018We don\u2019t have enough water resources to support industrialization, new labor flows, the kinds of business that we want to do.\u2019<\/p>\n By the time we get to the end of World War II, oil is being discovered in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and eventually all over the Persian Gulf region. These regimes were asking their Western partners for this infrastructure. This is the way that we understand the growth of these societies. There\u2019s no way you\u2019re going to get from a population in Abu Dhabi in 1950, between 5,000 and 15,000, to millions today. It\u2019s ecologically impossible. Oil money won\u2019t get you there. You have to have that water infrastructure to make this happen.<\/p>\n Describe how important desalination plants are to the people in the Gulf. <\/p>\n Most of the Gulf States and major cities are more than 90% reliant for municipal drinking water on seawater desalination. Saudi Arabia is a little different story. The Kingdom has a bigger territory and relies more on groundwater use. So, that number might be something like 70% for a country like Saudi. These bapllpark figures for drinking water don\u2019t include the Gulf\u2019s wider industrial and agricultural water usage profiles.<\/p>\n For the largest plants in the world, like Ras al-Khair in Saudi Arabia, we might be looking at a million cubic meters of production per day. That would be roughly 264 million gallons. This category of mega plants includes sites like Ras al-Khair, Shuaiba on Saudi Arabia\u2019s Red Sea coast, Taweelah in Abu Dhabi, and Jebel Ali in Dubai. If we look at the list of the top 10 in the world, eight or nine of those are in the Gulf.<\/p>\n To what extent has the Iranian regime targeted desalination plants since the start of the war?<\/p>\n On March 7, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi<\/a>, puts out this bombshell tweet that says, \u2018United States and Israel have attacked Qeshm Island. They have attacked a desalination plant that serves some 30 villages.\u2019 This claim comes out, but has not been verified. Then, Araghchi says, \u2018The U.S. set this precedent, not Iran.\u2019 Almost immediately afterwards, Iran struck a plant in Bahrain. In the last few days the rhetoric has only escalated further.<\/p>\n Are desalination plants the region\u2019s Achilles heel?<\/p>\n If Iran were to pursue a coordinated strategy of hitting dozens of these mega plants in the Gulf, that would be much worse than hitting the oil facilities. In a dangerous escalation of the situation over the weekend, President Donald Trump issued on March 21 an ultimatum<\/a> to Iran, threatening to \u2018obliterate\u2019 Iranian power plants if Iran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf<\/a> took to X (Twitter) to warn that if Iran\u2019s power plants and infrastructures were targeted, Iran would pursue a concerted strategy to \u2018irreversibly destroy\u2019 the Gulf\u2019s critical energy and desalination facilities.<\/p>\n Trump then backed down from his previous ultimatum, suggesting that renewed talks with Iran<\/a> could lead to a deescalation, but Iranian officials expressed skepticism.<\/p>\n As I told Arab News<\/a>, \u2018Attacking a desalination is, and should be, taboo. To me, it (is) analogous to using a nuclear weapon. These are things we shouldn\u2019t be considering because they\u2019re far too dangerous and disastrous.\u2019<\/p>\n The vulnerability is huge. If you were to ask what\u2019s worse, I would say attacking civilian water infrastructure. That\u2019s a clear international crime and human rights violation. The water piece of this is so interconnected. Oftentimes port facilities, refineries and water facilities are within a few miles or actually side by side with one another. \u00a0So, generally, those facilities are vulnerable because of their proximity to one another.<\/p>\n They\u2019re not fortified?<\/p>\n There\u2019s really no way that you could. These sort of infrastructures are on a massive scale. All these Gulf regimes have a clear sense that they need to position themselves to intercept and protect these, but it\u2019s a really hard task.<\/p>\n All these cities have missile interception systems and support from the United States. But none of this is foolproof. There are two worries. There\u2019s incidental contact damaging the plants, but the worst-case scenario is the pursuit of a concerted strategy by an Iranian regime in its death throes.<\/p>\n #####<\/p>\n Banner image: The United Arab Emirates\u2019 Jebel Ali Power and Desalination Complex, on the coast of the Persian Gulf in Dubai, is among the world\u2019s largest water desalination plants. As the Iran war widens, fears grow that plants like this could become targets for Iranian attacks. Photo credit: Adobe Stock.<\/p>\n The following is a list of Middle East Center Director Chris Low\u2019s recent media appearances featuring his comments about Gulf desalination plants and their relevance to the ongoing Iran war.<\/p>\n Low\u2019s article in The Conversation: \u201cPersian Gulf desalination could become military targets in regional war<\/a>,\u201d The Conversation, 5 March 2026.<\/p>\n Mother Jones, \u201cMiddle East Desalination Plant Attacks Highlight Risks of Relying on \u2018Fossil Fuel Water\u2019<\/a>,\u201d 16 March 2026.<\/p>\n Il Sole 24 Ore\u00a0(Italy), \u201cLa \u00abguerra contro l\u2019acqua\u00bb l\u2019altra grande paura dei Paesi del Golfo<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 11 March 2026.<\/p>\n Inside Climate News, \u201cAttacks on Middle East Desalination Plants Highlights the Risks of Near-Total Dependence on \u2018Fossil Fuel Water\u2019<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 11 March 2026.<\/p>\n Q Euronews, \u201c\u2018Serious water crisis\u2019 on horizon as Middle East\u2019s desalination plants hit and acid rain falls<\/a>,\u201d 10 March 2026.<\/p>\n Arab News, \u201cAre water desalination plants the Gulf\u2019s Achilles\u2019 in the latest Middle East conflict?<\/a>,\u201d , 10 March 2026.<\/p>\n L\u2019Express\u00a0(France), \u201cGuerre en Iran: S\u2019en prendre \u00e0 une usine de dessalement \u00e9quivaut \u00e0 sortir l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 10 March 2026.<\/p>\n Newsweek, \u201cDrinking Water Warning Issued for Millions as Iran War Threatens Water Supply<\/a>,\u201d 9 March 2026.<\/p>\n Associated Press, \u201cOil built the Persian Gulf. Desalinated water keeps it alive.War could threaten both<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 8 March 2026. <\/p>\n Global News (Canada), \u201cUS-Iran War: Growing concern for Gulf nation\u2019s water supply<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 8 March 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Atlantic, \u201cThe Gulf Countries Can\u2019t Take Much More<\/a>,\u201d\u00a0 6 March 2026.<\/p>\n<\/a>Graphic credit: Adobe Stock.<\/p>\n