Hundreds of oil tankers are idling at either end of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, responding to attacks by the United States and Israel, has effectively blockaded it.<\/p>\n
As soaring oil prices rattle the global economy, President Trump has vowed to reopen the shipping route \u201cone way or another.\u201d But short of a deal with Iran or a dangerous, prolonged occupation, experts warn, it will be hard to fully restore traffic in the strait.<\/p>\n
Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n
Geography is strategy<\/p>\n
The strait is narrow and shallow, forcing ships within miles of Iran\u2019s mountainous shores, a landscape that favors asymmetric warfare tactics, in which Iran uses weapons that are small, widely dispersed and hard for adversaries to eliminate completely.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe Iranians have thought a lot about how to utilize the geography to their benefit,\u201d said Caitlin Talmadge, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies Gulf security issues.<\/p>\n
The weapons may be relatively small, but that allows the Iranians to hide them in cliffs, caves and tunnels, and then deploy them at close range along the coastline.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe sheer proximity of Iran and width of the strait is what makes it so difficult,\u201d said Jennifer Parker, a former naval officer now at the National Security College of Australian National University.<\/p>\n
A vessel that comes under attack in the waterway doesn\u2019t have much time to act.<\/p>\n
\u201cYou have very limited time from a detection,\u201d Ms. Parker said. \u201cTo then try and respond and take out that missile or drone, your response time, depending on the speed of it, could well be minutes.\u201d<\/p>\n
Hidden firepower<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump has sent mixed messages about how he hopes to reopen the strait, including suggesting on Monday that he could jointly control the strait with Iran\u2019s supreme leader<\/a>. But most of the options the United States is considering involve the military<\/a>.<\/p>\n The first step toward opening the strait by military force would involve trying to strip away Iran\u2019s ability to attack ships. Since the war began at the end of February, as many as 17 vessels have been struck, according to Kpler<\/a>, a maritime data firm.<\/p>\n So far, thousands of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iranian military sites have not managed to stop the threat. It may not be possible to find and destroy every last place where Iran\u2019s weapons are being stored, or deployed.<\/p>\n \u201cThey have many places where they could put missile batteries,\u201d said Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a retired Marine Corps colonel. \u201cAnd because the missile batteries are mobile, it\u2019s hard to find and target them.\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Trump has called for naval escorts for commercial tankers transiting the strait. That, Mr. Cancian said, would be a major military operation<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cIt would involve ships escorting the tankers,\u201d he said. \u201cThere would be minesweepers to take care of any mines that might have been laid. There would be aircraft overhead to intercept any drones and to attack any missile batteries on shore.\u201d<\/p>\n Sending in warships to fend off drone and missile attacks brings its own risks.<\/p>\n \u201cThe destroyer\u2019s defensive systems are really designed for something different than the close-in knife fight of the strait,\u201d said Eugene Gholz, an associate professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame. \u201cEvery part of the destroyer is sensitive to being attacked.\u201d<\/p>\n But it may be mines that are the biggest threat.<\/p>\n \u201cIf there\u2019s a seriously credible threat of mines being in the water, that changes things completely,\u201d said Jonathan Schroden, an expert on irregular warfare at CNA, a nonpartisan defense research institute. \u201cNo navy is going to want to put their capital ships in a waterway that is potentially or actually mined.\u201d<\/p>\n Mine-clearing operations could take <\/a>weeks<\/a>, and they could put U.S. sailors directly in harm\u2019s way. The slow-moving teams would require protection themselves, including air cover.<\/p>\n Risks on the ground<\/p>\n