{"id":34958,"date":"2026-03-25T05:50:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T05:50:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/34958\/"},"modified":"2026-03-25T05:50:19","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T05:50:19","slug":"conflict-in-the-persian-gulf-pushes-funds-to-the-long-side","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/34958\/","title":{"rendered":"Conflict in the Persian Gulf pushes funds to the long side"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission\u2019s latest commitment-of-traders report in the United States indicates that funds have pushed their cards on the long side of the table when it comes to agricultural futures.<\/p>\n

The latest report was for the week ending March 10, which was 11 days into the United States and Israel\u2019s conflict with Iran.<\/p>\n

Funds have now become long not only in the vegetable oil complex, but also for corn. Even the \u201cpermanent\u201d bearish fund position in wheat has been partially lifted.<\/p>\n

\t<\/p>\n

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There is no question the vegetable oil complex has benefited the most from the conflict in the Middle East. This is due to the link between crude and vegetable oil values.<\/p>\n

The link has pushed funds to add to their existing long position in soybeans, soybean oil and canola.<\/p>\n

Funds added a net of 33,815 contracts to their recently accumulated long position in canola.<\/p>\n

The fund position on March 10 stood at a net long of 95,162 contracts, which is the equivalent of 1.9 million tonnes. This the longest fund position that funds have held in canola since the last week of July 2025.<\/p>\n

Funds are also long soybean oil futures, with purchases last week amounting to a net long of 33,329 contracts. This pushed the fund soybean net oil position to 108,838 contracts, which amounts to 2.97 million tonnes of soybean oil.<\/p>\n

Soybean futures have been rising since the rumours of a China agreement in early February.<\/p>\n

Managed money funds have been long soybean futures since the end of the 2025 harvest but are now holding a record net long position for this time of year.<\/p>\n

Funds during the past week added a net 23,205 contracts to their long position. The total fund long on March 10 was 222,107 contracts, which amounts to 1.11 billion bushels.<\/p>\n

Grain markets have not fared as well since the start of the war, but funds have also turned to the long side of the ledger in wheat and corn.<\/p>\n

Corn markets have benefitted from fund positioning as they added 140,297 contracts to their long position last week. On March 10, funds held a total net fund position of 193,271 contracts, which is the equivalent of 966 million bu.<\/p>\n

Even wheat markets have benefited from fund buying with Minneapolis and Kansas City futures in a net long position.<\/p>\n

On March 10, funds were net long 15,990 and 9,425 contracts in Minneapolis and Kansas City, respectively. Funds remain net short in Chicago and held a net short of 22, 345 contracts.<\/p>\n

This puts funds in a small net long in total wheat contracts.<\/p>\n

What does it mean?<\/p>\n

Funds are taking a long position in most commodities, which is helping boost prices. Essentially, the fund positioning is adding to the war premium for these commodities.<\/p>\n

The only issue is that fund positions can rapidly move from long to short, depending on their sentiment toward the commodity.<\/p>\n

Look for funds to remain on the bullish side of the market until the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is opened for all commercial traffic. When this happens is anybody\u2019s guess.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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