That elevated cost threatens to offset larger tax refunds<\/a> this season, depending on how long the Iran conflict lasts, some experts say. <\/p>\n Iran on Wednesday received President Donald Trump<\/a>‘s 15-point plan to end the war<\/a>, which initially lowered crude oil prices. But that drop reversed on Thursday<\/a> after the country rejected the U.S. ceasefire offer<\/a>.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, American consumers are still paying higher prices at the pump. The price of gasoline<\/a> on Thursday was at a nationwide average of $3.98 a gallon, up by roughly 33% from one month ago, according to AAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n Those higher gas prices could chip away at the windfall received by some taxpayers this spring. As of Mar. 13, the average refund amount<\/a> for individual filers was $3,623, about $350 more than a year earlier, according to the latest IRS data. <\/p>\n Read more CNBC personal finance coverage<\/p>\n While the average refund size could still shift, it’s increasingly “less likely we’re going to see a major change” before the April 15 tax deadline, William McBride, chief economist at the Tax Foundation, told CNBC. <\/p>\n This season’s bigger tax refunds come as both parties focus on Americans’ affordability concerns<\/a>. Republicans hold slim majorities in the House and Senate ahead of the November midterm elections. <\/p>\n Trump has said this will be the “largest tax refund season of all time<\/a>” based on the 2025 changes enacted via his “big beautiful bill.”<\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n Higher gasoline prices could offset bigger tax refunds<\/p>\n If the Strait of Hormuz were closed for three weeks and crude oil prices jumped to $110 per barrel in March, retail gasoline prices could peak at $4.36 per gallon in May, according to a March 18 analysis<\/a> from economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.<\/p>\n Under that scenario, higher gasoline prices could be “wiping out most or all of the larger tax refunds on average,” the authors wrote. <\/p>\n
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