![\"Oil](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/8227981cd0e4d04c96344119420b5e6c.jpeg\")
Oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, on June 4, 2023. – Alexander Manzyuk\/Reuters <\/p>\n Oil pump jacks outside Almetyevsk in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, on June 4, 2023. – Alexander Manzyuk\/Reuters <\/p>\n
The Iran war has handed Russia\u2019s beleaguered economy a much-needed lifeline.<\/p>\n
High oil prices are boosting the Kremlin\u2019s coffers, helping plug a hole in its federal budget and sustain the war effort in Ukraine. But beyond oil, a global scramble for natural gas and fertilizer supplies \u2014 also choked off by the Iran conflict \u2014 could further boost Russia\u2019s financial gains.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe biggest winner of the (Iran) conflict is Russia,\u201d said Ben Cahill, a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think tank in Washington, DC. The Kremlin can now sell previously discounted Russian crude \u201cat full market prices,\u201d marking \u201ca pretty big turnaround\u201d for the economy, he added.<\/p>\n
The windfall for Russia\u2019s public finances comes at a crucial moment. Before the Iran war, \u201cRussia was heading toward a genuine budget crisis,\u201d said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a Russia-focused research institute in Berlin. Although the latest Middle East conflict has not fundamentally changed the outlook for an economy structurally damaged by a drawn-out war, it has \u201cbought time,\u201d she told CNN.<\/p>\n
Quite how much time depends on how long the Iran war lasts, but higher oil prices have already brought some relief. Russia\u2019s finance ministry signaled that spending cuts previously expected for this year will now be pushed out to 2027, Prokopenko added.<\/p>\n
By mid-March, the price of Russian Urals crude stood at $90 a barrel, twice as high as in February, according to Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Even a smaller increase, of $30 a barrel, seen earlier in March, meant $8.5 billion of additional revenue per month, \u201c$5 billion of which goes into state coffers and the rest \u2013 to oil companies,\u201d he wrote in a note<\/a> this week.<\/p>\n Oil and natural gas revenues account for roughly a quarter of Russia\u2019s federal budget, and they are key to funding its \u201cwar machine in Ukraine,\u201d said Simone Tagliapietra, a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. \u201cThis spells bad news for Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n Before the Iran war, the pool of buyers for Russian oil was shrinking and customers were demanding steep discounts, thanks to stricter sanctions from the European Union and Washington. The White House also penalized India, one of the biggest buyers of Russian crude in recent years.<\/p>\n That pressure was working. Exports of Russian crude and oil products plunged to 6.6 million barrels a day in February, their lowest level since the start of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to the International Energy Agency. Export revenues plunged by about 30% that month compared with a year earlier.<\/p>\n Story continues <\/p>\n The Iran war has since brought about drastic change, thanks in part to a stark reversal of the Trump administration\u2019s previous position on Russian oil. Earlier this month, the United States temporarily eased sanctions<\/a> on seaborne Russian crude to \u201cenable oil to keep flowing into the global market.\u201d<\/p>\n Russian shipments to India are on course to nearly double in March, compared with February, as Indian refiners ramp up purchases to offset a fall in oil supply from the Middle East, according to Kpler, a real-time data and analytics provider.<\/p>\n In recent days, Indian buyers have paid more for Urals crude than for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, said Sumit Ritolia, a senior analyst at Kpler, citing sources and pricing data from Argus Media.<\/p>\n The Middle East conflict could also deliver other financial and strategic gains to the Kremlin.<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit route not just for oil, but also liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, helium and aluminum<\/a> \u2013 all of which Russia produces in vast quantities.<\/p>\n As the world\u2019s second-largest fertilizer exporter, Russia is already getting \u201cmore and more\u201d orders, with importers in Nigeria and Ghana pre-purchasing shipments for the third quarter of this year, according to Prokopenko.<\/p>\n \u201cOnce established, these connections will solidify into a dependency that could outlast any ceasefire,\u201d she noted<\/a> this week.<\/p>\n Russia is also the world\u2019s second-largest producer of natural gas, behind only the United States. Already, there is some speculation that the European Union could delay the timeline<\/a> for phasing out Russian natural gas. Some imports are due to be prohibited as early as next month, with November 2027 currently set as the deadline to stop all Russian imports.<\/p>\n This points to another potential strategic win for Russia, said Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. Here, too, lifting US sanctions on some Russian oil is symbolic, opening the door for the Kremlin to renegotiate with the United States for longer-term concessions, she told CNN.<\/p>\n If India and China reduce their dependence on fossil fuels from the Middle East, they may increasingly turn to Russian imports instead, according to Vakulenko of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. And that could strengthen the case for some large-scale infrastructure projects, which would deliver another boost to the Russian economy.<\/p>\n The MT Desert Kite, a tanker carrying Russian oil, is pictured behind Narara Marine National Park in the Arabian Sea, Gujarat, India, on March 11, 2026. – Amit Dave\/Reuters <\/p>\n
The Utrenneye field, which feeds Novatek’s Arctic LNG 2 project, on the Gydan Peninsula on the Kara Sea shore line in the Arctic circle, some 2,500 km from Moscow, on November 30, 2021. – Natalia Kolesnikova\/AFP\/Getty Images <\/p>\n