{"id":38987,"date":"2026-03-27T16:36:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:36:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/38987\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T16:36:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T16:36:15","slug":"analysis-1-month-into-the-war-iran-is-fighting-israel-and-the-us-with-insurgent-tactics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/38987\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: 1 month into the war, Iran is fighting Israel and the US with insurgent tactics"},"content":{"rendered":"

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) \u2014 One month into their war with Iran<\/a>, the United States and Israel find themselves confronting an opponent that fights more like an insurgency than a nation \u2014 using increasingly limited resources to inflict maximum pain<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Despite being battered daily by airstrikes from two of the world\u2019s most sophisticated militaries, Iran has shown it can still torment its Gulf Arab neighbors and Israel with missiles and drones and maintain a stranglehold<\/a> on the world\u2019s economy, primarily through threats.<\/p>\n

Tehran\u2019s ability to control the flow of traffic \u2014 and therefore the flow of oil \u2014 through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> is its biggest strategic advantage. And, in fact, it\u2019s a tactic that Iran\u2019s very own proxies have adopted for years under decades of its tutelage as the leader of the self-described \u201cAxis of Resistance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Iran\u2019s economy, long ago cut off from the global markets because of sanctions, is broadly insulated from the pain it is now inflicting on others<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The chokehold on the strait is causing oil prices to skyrocket, stock markets to plunge, and the cost of many basic goods to rise, putting pressure<\/a> on U.S. President Donald Trump that could lead him to escalate the conflict further.<\/p>\n

While Iran has found some success with cutting off the strait, it has its own problems lurking at home that the U.S. and Israel may be able to exploit the longer the war goes on. But its theocracy\u2019s path to victory through insurgent-like tactics remains fairly simple \u2014 just survive.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Islamic Republic understands that it cannot defeat the United States militarily,\u201d wrote Shukriya Bradost, a Mideast security analyst. \u201cInstead, its objective is both simpler and more strategic: Survive the war long enough to claim victory.\u201d <\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz is a key challenge for the US<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf<\/a> through which a fifth of all oil and natural gas once passed, now finds itself largely devoid of traffic. The Islamic Republic allows through only the shipments it wants and at a price it dictates<\/a>. Even with nearly all of its navy destroyed, Iran can hold the waterway hostage through an arsenal of missiles and drones built up over decades. <\/p>\n

Countries in Asia, the primary customers for oil that passes through the strait, are feeling the pinch most acutely \u2014 but the market for oil is global, so drivers in Europe and the U.S. are also seeing price hikes. And since oil is so fundamental to the world economy \u2014 its cost is baked into the manufacture and transport of many goods \u2014 it\u2019s not just gasoline prices that are rising<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s bad news for Trump, who was already struggling to show Americans he could bring down the cost of living<\/a> ahead of midterm elections in November. <\/p>\n

Ending the standoff is not easy. One way would be to negotiate a ceasefire \u2014 and Trump says talks are progressing<\/a>, something Iran denies. <\/p>\n

If that fails, the U.S. and Israel would either have to decide they have achieved enough and walk away from the war \u2014 or dramatically escalate the conflict to force the strait open. Trump has already ordered thousands more paratroopers and Marines<\/a> into the region. And he has set a new deadline \u2014 already delayed twice \u2014 of 8 p.m. Eastern time April 6 for Iran to reopen the strait. Otherwise, he\u2019s threatened to begin bombing power plants in Iran.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump\u2019s preference remains \u2018escalate to de-escalate,\u2019\u201d the risk advisory Eurasia Group said in an analysis Thursday. \u201cThe U.S. is moving more ships and ground troops into the region and will be better prepared to escalate in mid-April.\u201d<\/p>\n

But Iran has shown itself resilient to the battering it has received thus far. <\/p>\n

Iran maintains its ability to cause havoc despite being hit hard<\/p>\n

Trump on Thursday night said about 9% of Iran\u2019s missile arsenal remains. There was no way to independently verify that figure \u2014 but even if accurate, Tehran still has ways to wreak havoc.<\/p>\n

With its aircraft broadly destroyed and its air defenses at their weakest, Iran still maintains a vast network of air and sea bases, many built up decades ago. <\/p>\n

It also has more recently built underground bases, which along with missile launchers disguised as commercial trucks, allow it to hide its launch sites until the last minute. Keeping mobile launchers on the move can protect them from airstrikes.<\/p>\n

That strategy, known as \u201cshoot and scoot,\u201d is a mainstay of many insurgent groups, including Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels. The Iran-backed group itself successfully disrupted international shipping, in the Red Sea. Shiite militias in Iraq, also backed by Iran, used similar tactics against U.S. troops there. Both have survived if not thrived while being repeatedly targeted.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s geography and terrain \u2014 a mountainous nation about the size of America\u2019s largest state, Alaska \u2014 also give it the space and features to hide like an insurgent force.<\/p>\n

But problems still lurk under the surface for Iran as well. <\/p>\n

Iran faces an angry population and leadership questions<\/p>\n

Both American and the Israeli leaders have said they hope Iran\u2019s people, who challenged the country\u2019s theocracy<\/a> in nationwide protests in January, would take over their government.<\/p>\n

There have been no signs of any such uprising \u2014 and, for now, many Iranians are sheltering from airstrikes<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s public also remembers the government\u2019s bloody crackdown<\/a> earlier this year that saw thousands killed and tens of thousands detained. The Revolutionary Guard\u2019s all-volunteer Basij force, which was key to that crackdown, remains active<\/a> despite repeatedly being targeted in the war, with social media videos showing their armed fighters roaming streets, blaring propaganda from loudspeakers.<\/p>\n

In a sign that Iran is feeling the pressure on its forces, Guard official Rahim Nade-Ali said it has begun to recruit children as young as 12 for the Basij. He described it as responding to public demand \u2014 but it is also a way to fill out its ranks as its checkpoints come under attack.<\/p>\n

Questions also remain about Iran\u2019s leadership. Mojtaba Khamenei hasn\u2019t been seen publicly since becoming Iran\u2019s new supreme leader<\/a>, with U.S. officials saying he\u2019s been wounded in the war. The Guard and other military units appear to be operating without any central command. And any ceasefire deal that doesn\u2019t give the Guard and hard-liners what they want could fracture the country\u2019s political leadership.<\/p>\n

But Trump\u2019s military pressure might not be having the desired effect.<\/p>\n

\u201cWashington seems to believe that an overwhelming display of military power will force the Iranians to the negotiating table,\u201d the New York-based Soufan Center said in an analysis Friday. \u201cBut … the U.S. can\u2019t expect to gain in peace what it was not able to take in war.\u201d<\/p>\n

___<\/p>\n

EDITOR\u2019S NOTE \u2014 Jon Gambrell<\/a>, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) \u2014 One month into their war with Iran, the United States and Israel…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":19036,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[328,38,1402,197,34,61,196,37,199,3985,324,768,2289,16954,16955,200,771,781,82],"class_list":{"0":"post-38987","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-donald-trump","10":"tag-drone-surveillance-and-warfare","11":"tag-general-news","12":"tag-iran","13":"tag-iran-government","14":"tag-iran-war","15":"tag-israel","16":"tag-israel-government","17":"tag-jon-gambrell","18":"tag-mideast-wars","19":"tag-military-and-defense","20":"tag-mojtaba-khamenei","21":"tag-rahim-nade-ali","22":"tag-shukriya-bradost","23":"tag-war-and-unrest","24":"tag-washington-news","25":"tag-waterways","26":"tag-world-news"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116302117742972080","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38987","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38987"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38987\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38987"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38987"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38987"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}