Shafaq News<\/p>\n
Less than a month after the outbreak
\nof the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Iraq has shifted
\nfrom a position of observation to becoming an active arena of confrontation.
\nDespite this, analysts and observers interviewed by Shafaq News say Iraq\u2019s
\npolitical and diplomatic posture still demonstrates an ability to contain
\nescalating regional tensions.<\/p>\n
Since the start of the war, the Fragile Stability<\/p>\n Researcher and Academic Haider Shallal added that political will at Researcher and academic Alaa Najah Najah, speaking to Shafaq News, Read more: Iraq’s energy vulnerability: When a petro-state has no buffer<\/a><\/p>\n Beyond Neutrality<\/p>\n Ahmed Al-Yasiri, head of the \u201cIraq has become a theater of Al-Yasiri noted that this situation Political Survival<\/p>\n From London, Haitham Al-Haiti, He attributed this to the view that Recent Iraqi government decisions Read more: How the Iran\u2013US\u2013Israel war exposes Iraq\u2019s defense paralysis<\/a><\/p>\n Risk of War<\/p>\n The head of Iraq\u2019s Supreme Judicial Amid these developments, Najah Al-Yasiri emphasized that diplomacy The challenges extend beyond This economic strain coincides with
\nIraqi government has firmly maintained that decisions on war and peace rest
\nexclusively with the state, in accordance with the constitution and the law. It
\nhas been warned that any unilateral military action by armed factions or
\nexternal actors constitutes a clear violation of sovereignty and threatens
\nnational stability. This position faces increasingly complex and overlapping
\nfield developments. Armed factions have intensified domestic attacks and
\nclaimed strikes on US bases in neighboring countries. At the same time, Iran
\nhas carried out strikes against US positions and Iranian Kurdish opposition
\ngroups based in the Kurdistan Region, while the United States and Israel have
\ntargeted sites and headquarters of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF<\/a>), a state-affiliated paramilitary
\numbrella group, across Iraq.<\/p>\n
\nShallal said Iraq is \u201cwalking a tightrope between escalation and containment,\u201d
\nrelying on a delicate balance in its foreign policy to avoid sliding into open
\nconfrontation. In an interview with Shafaq News, he attributed this approach to
\nIraq\u2019s sensitive geopolitical position and the far-reaching consequences that
\nany broad escalation could have on regional stability, particularly global
\nenergy security.<\/p>\n
\nthe domestic, regional, and international levels still leans toward containing
\ntensions. He noted that this aligns with ongoing regional diplomatic efforts,
\nincluding initiatives led by Turkiye, aimed at de-escalating the conflict and
\nreturning parties to dialogue.<\/p>\n
\nsaid the risk of involvement in conflict is not measured solely by the presence
\nof tensions, but by how they are managed. He described the current pattern as
\n\u201ccontrolling escalation rather than igniting it,\u201d placing Iraq within a
\n\u201cdefensible margin.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nadded that the multiplicity of international and regional partners generates a
\nform of indirect deterrence, as the interests of various actors converge to
\nprevent a collapse in stability. However, he warned that \u201cthe real challenge
\nlies not in conventional
\nwar, but in low-intensity escalation and indirect conflicts that may take
\nsecurity or economic forms.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nArab-Australian Center for Strategic Studies, noted that Baghdad has
\neffectively moved beyond neutrality, though it has not entered the conflict as
\na direct combatant.<\/p>\n
\nconflict rather than a fighting party, which is more dangerous because it
\ncombines external targeting with internal division,\u201d he told Shafaq News,
\nadding that Iraqi sovereignty is being violated \u201cfrom all directions.\u201d<\/p>\n
\nprompted the Iraqi government<\/a> to take an \u201cexceptional decision\u201d earlier this
\nweek to grant security forces the authority to respond and defend themselves,
\nreflecting a shift in the rules of engagement.<\/p>\n
\nprofessor of political science at the University of Exeter, stated that Iraqi
\npolitical leaders, particularly within Shiite factions, \u201cmay not want to go far
\nwith Iran, but are compelled to be part of the battle.\u201d<\/p>\n
\n\u201ca collapse of Iran would pose an existential threat to its political future,
\nespecially amid political fragmentation and corruption\u201d. As a result, these
\nforces face limited options. According to Al-Haiti, the United States is
\nunwilling to tolerate pro-Iran factions or the continued presence of the PMF, pushing these
\ngroups toward a \u201climited conflict\u201d to preserve their political survival.<\/p>\n
\nclearly reflect this paradox. While authorities have granted security forces,
\nincluding the PMF, the right to respond, they have simultaneously stressed the
\nneed to confine weapons to state control, pursue attacks on diplomatic
\nmissions, and reject the use of Iraqi territory to launch attacks on
\nneighboring countries. These measures are seen as an attempt to contain
\npressure from armed factions while avoiding confrontation with the United
\nStates.<\/p>\n
\nCouncil, Judge Faiq Zidan, warned against the dangers of an uncontrolled slide
\ntoward war, describing the declaration of war as one of the most serious
\nsovereign decisions due to its significant political, military, and legal
\nconsequences. He stressed that unilateral decisions in this regard weaken state
\nauthority and undermine the rule of law.<\/p>\n
\noutlined three paths to avoid escalation: strengthening positive neutrality in
\nforeign policy, reinforcing the domestic front institutionally and in terms of
\nsecurity, and expanding multilateral diplomatic engagement.<\/p>\n
\nmust remain \u201cbalanced and professional,\u201d aimed not only at avoiding war but
\nalso at mitigating its impact by managing the complex relationship between
\nTehran and Washington and using internal pressure tools, such as religious
\nauthorities, to restrain armed factions.<\/p>\n
\nsecurity into political and economic domains. Iraq, which depends on oil<\/a> for 90
\npercent of its revenues, faces mounting pressure due to the closure of the
\nStrait of Hormuz and attacks on key oil fields, including Majnoon, Rumaila, and
\nKirkuk, further complicating the economic situation.<\/p>\n
\ncoordinated diplomatic pressure from six Arab countries, Saudi Arabia, the
\nUnited Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Jordan, which called on
\nBaghdad on Wednesday to take immediate measures to halt attacks by armed
\nfactions on neighboring states. They said the use of Iraqi territory as a
\nlaunch point for such attacks constitutes a violation of UN Security Council
\nResolution 2817.<\/p>\n