Caskets demand explanations.<\/p>\n
Thirteen American service members have been killed and more than <\/a>300 wounded<\/a> since President Trump and Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu launched their war against Iran a month ago. For the families who\u2019ve lost sons and daughters, the American commander in chief\u2019s shifting explanations for the war are infuriating. He\u2019s listed more than half a dozen<\/a> so far \u2014 including regime change, ending Iran\u2019s nuclear program and destroying that nation\u2019s military. He\u2019s even called the whole thing a \u201clittle excursion<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n After a full career, I can attest that we soldiers know we\u2019re expendable. And yet we still go where we\u2019re sent. But there is an asterisk. There is just one thing that we ask. It\u2019s that America spends our lives on something worth the sacrifice.<\/p>\n Would you be willing to die for a \u201clittle excursion\u201d? Would you send your daughter or your son to die in one?<\/p>\n We often forget that foreign policy is just this personal. It begins and ends at home. It\u2019s one kid willing to fight, to go wherever deployed. It\u2019s one family willing to sacrifice. That\u2019s the nucleus, the atomic unit of American foreign policy. Because armies don\u2019t fight wars alone; societies do.<\/p>\n That\u2019s why popular consent matters so much. In every major conflict of this past century, vast American majorities (over 75%)<\/a> supported the war at the outset. The war in Iran currently falls under 40%<\/a> approval, perhaps the least popular war America has ever started.<\/p>\n That abysmal percentage tracks almost exactly with the president\u2019s own popularity<\/a>. He hasn\u2019t even tried to convince the American public to support this war. No justification, no explicit reason for why this, why now. A modern commander in chief has never taken us into conflict without concern for consent.<\/p>\n Consent matters now because this will not be an easy war. It\u2019s true that Iran is relatively weak. Its national economy is smaller than Connecticut\u2019s. Its defense spending is roughly 1% to 2% of ours.<\/p>\n But location, location, location. With 1,000 miles of coastline, Iran has long prepared to wage naval guerrilla warfare that does deliberate damage to the global economy via the Hormuz Strait.<\/p>\n Even without Iran\u2019s extreme geostrategic advantage, shooting from the hip can\u2019t change regimes or end nuclear programs. Airstrikes won\u2019t cut it, just like they didn\u2019t get the job done this past summer when the administration claimed it \u201cobliterated\u201d the Iranian nuclear program.<\/p>\n To do either job \u2014 remove the regime or end its nuclear program \u2014 would take far more troops than we\u2019d be willing to send. Iran is much bigger than Iraq and Afghanistan combined, and without considerable allied support we wouldn\u2019t have the requisite troop strength to get this job done. Every military operation intends a range of impact from influence to control. With airstrikes we can influence Iran, but we\u2019ll never get anywhere close to control.<\/p>\n Shock and awe wears off real quick \u2014 I know from experience in Iraq \u2014 and any organized group of people with explosives and a willingness to die can inflict a lot of pain. So Iran will wait us out and they will inflict pain when they want and as targets present.<\/p>\n So that\u2019s reality. Iran can and will inflict economic pain, and the U.S. and Israel can inflict physical pain. Both sides are like two boxers without knockout punching power, so we\u2019re destined for a punishment doom loop. But for Iran, merely surviving would be a win. For the U.S., the pain will soon become unbearable. And that\u2019s how we will end up in some form of d\u00e9tente.<\/p>\n It\u2019s easy to think of a list of potential events that might sour Americans further on the war. Terrorism, cyber attacks and plain pocketbook pain. \u201cIf we don\u2019t open Hormuz,\u201d assesses<\/a> global oil expert<\/a> Bob McNally, we could see gas prices at an \u201call-time high.\u201d Just what precise American pressure point might end the war?<\/p>\n But the individual straws matter less in this situation because the camel\u2019s back is already broken. Americans are already against this war and already find the costs too high. Besides, the normal war-ending signals from the public are unlikely to matter much when the commander in chief doesn\u2019t care to give a coherent reason to go to war. It follows that he also won\u2019t necessarily leave the war even if good reasons to do so are obvious to everyone else.<\/p>\n If you can\u2019t justify it, don\u2019t fight it. Maybe that\u2019s the real lesson here. Maybe that\u2019s the real \u201cTrump corollary\u201d for foreign policy practitioners: You can\u2019t win a war you can\u2019t explain.<\/p>\n Especially to the families of the fallen.<\/p>\n