WASHINGTON\u00a0\u2014\u00a0President Trump is threatening to deploy ground troops to seize critical oil infrastructure on Iran\u2019s Kharg Island, a military gambit that experts say would risk American lives and could still fail to end the war.<\/p>\n
If Trump wants to hobble Iran\u2019s oil industry for leverage in negotiations, a better option might be setting up a blockade at sea against ships that have filled up at Kharg Island\u2019s oil terminals, the experts said. <\/p>\n
The island \u2014 located on the other side of the Persian Gulf from U.S. bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia \u2014 is the beating heart of Iran\u2019s oil industry, through which 90% of its exports pass. It is important because Iran\u2019s coastline is mostly too shallow for tanker ships to dock.<\/p>\n
\u201cPutting people on the ground might be the most psychologically compelling way of striking a blow at Iran,\u201d said Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. <\/p>\n
\u201cOn the other hand, you\u2019re putting your own troops at jeopardy,\u201d said Eisenstadt, a retired Army reserve officer who served in Iraq. \u201cIt\u2019s not far from the mainland. So they can potentially rain a lot of destruction on the island, if they\u2019re willing to inflict damage on their own infrastructure.\u201d <\/p>\n
Seizing Kharg Island could escalate the conflict, said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies. <\/p>\n
He said Iran and its proxies \u2014 including Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels \u2014 could intensify their retaliation, including by laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz or striking targets with drones across the Arabian Peninsula, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. <\/p>\n
Commodities researchers and investment banks warn major retaliation could have lasting implications for energy prices and the global economy.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt will be hard to take. It will be hard to hold,\u201d Citrinowicz said of Kharg Island. \u201cAnd it might damage the economy, but not in a way that will force the Iranians to capitulate.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump says \u2018maybe we take Kharg Island\u2019<\/p>\n
Trump is under growing pressure to end the monthlong conflict with Iran, which has attacked U.S. bases and allies in the region.<\/p>\n
Iran also has largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint through which 20% of the world\u2019s oil normally flows, causing fuel prices to soar and other economic tumult. <\/p>\n
Trump said in a social media post Monday that \u201cgreat progress is being made\u201d in talks with Iran to end military operations. But he said that if a deal is not reached \u201cshortly\u201d and the strait is not immediately reopened, the U.S. would obliterate power plants, oil wells, Kharg Island and possibly even desalination plants.<\/p>\n
Trump has raised the idea of American forces seizing Kharg Island. <\/p>\n
\u201cMaybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don\u2019t. We have a lot of options,\u201d Trump told the Financial Times. \u201cIt would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asked about Iranian defenses there, he said: \u201cI don\u2019t think they have any defense. We could take it very easily.\u201d<\/p>\n
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that ground troops would not be needed to achieve the Trump administration\u2019s goals. He did not repeat that assertion Monday after being asked about plans for U.S. ground troops, saying \u201cthe president has several options at his disposal\u201d but diplomacy is Trump\u2019s preference.<\/p>\n
\u201cNow, they are making threats about controlling the Hormuz Strait in perpetuity, creating a tolling system and the like,\u201d Rubio told ABC\u2019s \u201cGood Morning America.\u201d \u201cThat\u2019s not going to be allowed to happen. And the president has a number of options available to him, if he so chooses, to prevent that from happening.\u201d<\/p>\n
U.S. has hit targets on the island crucial to Iran<\/p>\n
The U.S. has already struck various targets on the island, including air defenses, a radar site, the airport and a hovercraft base, according to satellite analysis by the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute\u2019s Critical Threats Project.<\/p>\n
Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said disrupting Kharg Island would not completely halt oil exports as Iran has other small ports. But it would reduce the oil revenue flowing to Iran\u2019s government, \u201cforcing flows through a much smaller, costlier and less efficient export system,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
However, Tehran has too much at stake to surrender over a single asset, no matter how economically significant, said Citrinowicz, the Iran expert at Israel\u2019s Institute for National Security Studies.<\/p>\n
While occupying Kharg might offer Washington some leverage in any negotiations, he said the notion that control of the island could be traded for Iran\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium was far-fetched.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s in no way a decisive blow,\u201d Citrinowicz said.<\/p>\n
U.S. troops face risk from Iran\u2019s mainland if they tried to seize Kharg Island<\/p>\n
A U.S. Navy ship carrying about 2,500 Marines recently arrived in the Middle East, while at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division are expected soon. Another 2,500 Marines are being deployed from California. The Trump administration has not said what all those troops will be doing, but the 82nd Airborne is trained to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure key territory and airfields.<\/p>\n
One of the reasons American troops would be vulnerable on Kharg Island is its close proximity \u2014 about 33 kilometers (21 miles) \u2014 to the Iranian mainland, from which missiles, drones and artillery could be fired. Despite continued U.S. and Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic is still attacking targets across the region, including a Saudi air base hundreds of miles away where more than two dozen American troops were injured last week.<\/p>\n
Even with American ships and planes providing support, there would still be a relatively short window of time to shoot down every drone or missile launched from the mainland at the island, Eisenstadt said. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe coast tends to be mountainous, so the drones can come in through mountain passes where it\u2019s hard for our radar to pick up,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd we don\u2019t have the warning time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Eisenstadt says a sea blockade against ships carrying Iranian oil would be a safer strategy and achieve the same goal of controlling most of Iran\u2019s oil industry.<\/p>\n
\u201cThrow up a quarantine that seeks to seize Iranian oil shipments that are exiting the Gulf,\u201d agreed Clayton Seigle, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It could be done at a distance \u201coutside the range of the lion\u2019s share of Iran\u2019s weapon systems.\u201d<\/p>\n
Seigle argued against destroying Kharg Island\u2019s oil infrastructure, which Trump also suggested. <\/p>\n
\u201cWe were supposed to be coming to the rescue of the people that had been rising up and protesting for a better future,\u201d Seigle said. \u201cSo to cripple Iran\u2019s revenue-generating potential for many years to come would definitely not work in that direction.\u201d<\/p>\n
Finley and Metz write for the Associated Press. Metz reported from Ramallah, West Bank. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON\u00a0\u2014\u00a0President Trump is threatening to deploy ground troops to seize critical oil infrastructure on Iran\u2019s Kharg Island, a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":45049,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[17657,711,9961,14660,102,196,2601,18496,1827,39,18754,4738,392,18755,18753,18756],"class_list":{"0":"post-45048","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-persian-gulf","8":"tag-danny-citrinowicz","9":"tag-drone","10":"tag-expert","11":"tag-ground-troop","12":"tag-hormuz","13":"tag-iran-war","14":"tag-kharg-island","15":"tag-michael-eisenstadt","16":"tag-oil-industry","17":"tag-persian-gulf","18":"tag-security-studies-program","19":"tag-ship","20":"tag-trump","21":"tag-u-s-basis","22":"tag-washington-institute","23":"tag-well-option"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116324444749864503","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45048","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=45048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/45048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/45049"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=45048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=45048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}