While plans to toll vessels could add as much as $1 per barrel to the price of crude oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz, container ships in the Persian Gulf remain trapped despite a ceasefire between the United States and Iran.<\/p>\n
\u201cCommercial shipping remains tightly constrained relative to pre-conflict levels and skews heavily toward outbound exits,\u201d wrote<\/p>\n
Destine Ozuygur, senior market analyst for Xeneta, in a LinkedIn post. \u201cMore importantly, transits are taking place within the selective guardrails of an Iran-operated tollbooth.\u201d<\/p>\n
Iran and the United States announced a two-week ceasefire Tuesday evening ahead of President Donald Trump\u2019s deadline threatening Tehran with massive destruction.<\/p>\n
About 20% of the world\u2019s crude oil moves to markets through the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade by Iran has throttled supply and sent prices of fuel soaring.<\/p>\n
Reports have said that operators of some very large crude carriers (VLCCs), the most numerous in global commerce, have paid Iran $2 million per ship to ensure safe passage through the strait. Under a plan by Oman and Iran to make tolls permanent, a typical VLCC holding 2 million barrels of oil translates to a potential $1 dollar more per barrel charged to buyers on delivery, analysts estimate.<\/p>\n
Brent crude prices rose as high as $110 a barrel on Monday only to fall to just over $90 following the ceasefire announcement.<\/p>\n
The Federal Maritime Commission in recent weeks has rejected multiple requests from carriers asking to waive the 30-day waiting period to implement emergency fuel surcharges.<\/p>\n
Vessel traffic through the strait has shown a steady increase, Ozuygur said, citing reports that 21 ships made the passage over the weekend. Xeneta has not yet confirmed any inbound or outbound container vessel transits since the ceasefire announcement.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe monetization of passage through the strait is an unsettling reality that deeply influences what happens next in the scale and pace of any recovery,\u201d she said. \u201cRussia and China\u2019s recent veto of the United Nations Security Council resolution to reopen the waterway increases the likelihood that this becomes the operating status quo.\u201d<\/p>\n
While tankers are limited by the location of oil production, Ozuygur said container shipping is already adapting.<\/p>\n
\u201cA tenuous ceasefire does not change the fact that liner networks have implemented structural adaptations. Since March 1, at least five services have introduced new connections to Jeddah and King Abdullah ports [In Saudi Arabia], or Mersin [in Turkey], with weekly capacity into Jeddah increasing by 19%.\u201d<\/p>\n
While a return to former routing patterns is possible, Ozuygur said liner networks have committed future schedules to alternate routings, with bookings two-plus weeks out having clear destinations.<\/p>\n
Higher costs are likely with new routings that rely on intermodal solutions that are more complex, as trucking and rail move containers slower, and in smaller quantities.<\/p>\n
The follow-on effect of persistent congestion can hamper U.S.-bound traffic moving through the ports of Nhava Sheva and Mundra in India.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Ozuygur said, volatile fuel prices are pressuring stakeholders across the supply chain while boosting carrier margins.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhether we see a rapid return, or the more likely measured application of hybrid strategies in the next two weeks, there is no immediate sustained relief for shippers,\u201d she said, adding bookings made today for the Persian Gulf will still carry the risk of renewed closure in two weeks\u2019 time.<\/p>\n
Read more articles by Stuart Chirls\u00a0here.<\/a><\/p>\n Related coverage:<\/p>\n Trump budget boosts military shipbuilding spending by 242% to $65.8 billion<\/a><\/p>\n Montreal port chief exits after just two years on the job<\/a><\/p>\n 34,000 shipping routes diverted from Hormuz disruption: Report<\/a><\/p>\n Maersk again turned down on request to fast-track emergency fuel surcharge<\/a><\/p>\n The post New tolls could add $1 a barrel to Hormuz oil<\/a> appeared first on FreightWaves<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"While plans to toll vessels could add as much as $1 per barrel to the price of crude…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":57923,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[3676,2566,22505,34,39,101,4068],"class_list":{"0":"post-57922","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-persian-gulf","8":"tag-container-shipping","9":"tag-container-ships","10":"tag-fuel-surcharges","11":"tag-iran","12":"tag-persian-gulf","13":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","14":"tag-vessel-traffic"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57922"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57922\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/57923"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}