Climate scientists warn<\/a> it appears increasingly likely that a planet-warming El Ni\u00f1o will take shape over the coming months, with U.S. meteorologists estimating<\/a> a one-in-three chance of a “strong” weather event forming in October to December.<\/p>\n European climate models indicate<\/a> an even higher probability of a very strong or “super El Ni\u00f1o,” although the so-called spring barrier<\/a> means that these forecasts can be inaccurate. <\/p>\n El Ni\u00f1o \u2014 or “the little boy” in Spanish \u2014 is widely recognized<\/a> as the warming of the sea surface temperature, which occurs naturally every few years. Such an event is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.<\/p>\n A super El Ni\u00f1o, which doesn’t have an official scientific category, is understood to refer to an exceptionally strong phase of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above normal. <\/p>\n Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst, food and farming at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, said 2026 was shaping up to be another year in which conflict and climate risks have become a costly reality.<\/p>\n “Food prices are being squeezed from both sides: by climate extremes disrupting production in major growing regions, and by a food system still hooked on fossil fuels<\/a> and therefore exposed to spikes in gas, fertiliser, transport and packaging costs,” Jaccarini told CNBC by email.<\/p>\n “That is why the prospect of a strong El Ni\u00f1o matters,” he continued. “It can turbocharge weather risks in a climate already destabilised by human emissions, compounding inflation driven by high fossil fuel prices.” <\/p>\n 2026 might produce a super El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern. In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen.<\/p>\n Paul Donovan<\/p>\n chief economist at UBS<\/p>\n Some commodities are particularly exposed to the weather event, with El Ni\u00f1o typically putting upward pressure on cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar, Jaccarini said. He also cited broader risks for other products linked to the tropics, such as bananas, tea, coffee, chocolate and soy-fed meat.<\/p>\n Expectations of El Ni\u00f1o’s return follow a multi-year La Ni\u00f1a event<\/a>, which generally has the effect of lowering global temperatures compared to normal years.<\/p>\n ‘Super El Ni\u00f1o’<\/p>\n Oil and gas prices and fertilizer costs have skyrocketed<\/a> due to the Iran war severely disrupting supplies through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. <\/p>\n Roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, although shipping traffic has virtually ground to a halt since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28. <\/p>\n World leaders on Wednesday welcomed<\/a> the announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire<\/a>\u00a0although experts told CNBC that the agreement offers no clear path to peace<\/a> and the disruption caused by weeks of strikes will have a lasting impact. <\/p>\n The price spikes for fuel and fertilizer come as the U.S. planting season begins in earnest, ramping up fears among U.S. farmers of elevated food prices and lower crop yields.<\/p>\n A general view of the Hong Kong skyline in fog on March 29, 2026 in Hong Kong, China.<\/p>\n Sawayasu Tsuji | Getty Images News | Getty Images<\/p>\n Every energy price spike inevitably stokes fears of higher food prices given that fertilizer manufacture is energy intensive and natural gas is used to produce some chemicals, according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at Swiss bank UBS.<\/p>\n “However, higher fertilizer prices may not be the biggest agricultural price threat this year, 2026 might produce a super El Ni\u00f1o weather pattern,” Donovan said in a note published in late March.<\/p>\n “In that case, drought and limited water supply might be more important than shortages of nitrogen,” he added.<\/p>\n Significant risks<\/p>\n Analysis published<\/a> by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) last month warned that the number of food-insecure people across the globe could reach levels last seen at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. <\/p>\n The WFP estimates that the number of people facing acute hunger could jump by 45 million if the Iran war persists beyond June and oil prices stay above $100 per barrel. This prediction would add to the 318 million people across the globe who are already food insecure. <\/p>\n Dawid Heyl, a co-portfolio manager for the global natural resources strategy at Ninety One, said the prospect of an El Ni\u00f1o event poses a risk to global food production, but the extent of this risk depends on when the climate phenomenon develops, how extreme it is and how long it lasts.<\/p>\n “I’ve been saying this to so many colleagues and anyone who would listen, but I wasn’t really concerned about Russia-Ukraine in terms of food inflation,” Heyl told CNBC by video call. <\/p>\n “I am a lot more concerned about [the Iran war] this time around, because of the impact on nitrogen, fertilizer production and availability,” Heyl said.<\/p>\n Asked about the prospect of a powerful El Ni\u00f1o event developing in the wake of the sprawling Middle East crisis, Heyl said: “If you get two negative factors like that combining then it could really be tough going.” <\/p>\n A tractor drips nitrogen fertilizer onto rows of romaine lettuce at Pisoni Farms near Gonzales, California, US, on Wednesday, April 1, 2026.<\/p>\n Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n The likes of India, Australia, Brazil and Argentina were all cited as countries that could be significantly exposed to El Ni\u00f1o, Heyl said, albeit for different reasons. <\/p>\n The European Union, meanwhile, said<\/a> earlier this month that an El Ni\u00f1o event later this year threatens northwestern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan with dry conditions, “posing a significant risk to the main agricultural season.” <\/p>\n![\"Farmers](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/108286497-17751207031775120701-44978085271-1080pnbcnews.jpg\")
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