Good morning. Washington is calling the Iran war finished but markets and energy producers are not \u2013 more on that below, along with Toronto\u2019s new counterterrorism unit and the next generation of space enthusiasts. But first:<\/p>\n
Today\u2019s headlinesOpen this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Iranians walk past a Tehran billboard that reads “The Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”ATTA KENARE\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n EnergyWaiting in Hormuz<\/p>\n At the Pentagon\u2019s first press briefing since U.S. President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth repeatedly referred to the major combat operation in the past tense. \u201cAmerica\u2019s military achieved every single objective on plan, on schedule, exactly as laid out from day one,\u201d he said yesterday morning. \u201cOperation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.\u201d <\/p>\n That sort of language might be a tad premature: Both sides offered competing accounts<\/a> of the terms of the agreement, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the ceasefire deal did not include Lebanon. Israel then carried out its heaviest assault on the country<\/a> since the start of the war, striking more than 100 targets in a 10-minute span and killing at least 254 people. Iran, which fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states yesterday, kept the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israel\u2019s attacks.<\/p>\n But even if Tehran can be persuaded to open the vital waterway \u2013 perhaps at the peace talks meant to begin tomorrow in Pakistan \u2013 it\u2019ll be a while before much oil flows through the Gulf region again. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said it would take months<\/a> after the war ends for normal output to resume, and that fuel prices will most likely continue to rise until then. \u201cJust as we had never before seen the strait close, we\u2019ve never seen it reopen,\u201d EIA administrator Tristan Abbey said on Tuesday. \u201cWhat exactly that looks like remains to be seen.\u201d<\/p>\n The chokepoint holds<\/p>\n Roughly 20 per cent of the world\u2019s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly all of that traffic came to a standstill once the U.S and Israel launched their war in Iran. According to the UN, some 2,000 ships \u2013 including<\/a> oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers and cargo ships, along with six tourist cruise liners \u2013 have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the end of February. Whenever the waterway does reopen, it\u2019ll be gridlock: Before the conflict, about 150 vessels passed through the narrow strait each day.<\/p>\n Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n A ship in Oman sits anchored outside the Strait of Hormuz last month.Elke Scholiers\/Getty Images<\/p>\n But with tankers stuck and storage facilities filled to the brim, Middle Eastern countries have been forced to curb their production of oil. Restarting operations isn\u2019t like flipping a switch \u2013 it\u2019s a costly and technically complex challenge that requires workers, equipment and resources to return to the region. Under the best of circumstances, the International Energy Agency estimated in early March<\/a>, it would take weeks or even months for full production to resume.<\/p>\n And these are not the best of circumstances. Last month, Israel hit a production facility<\/a> for the South Pars gas field, the crown jewel of Iran\u2019s energy industry. Tehran quickly retaliated with multiple strikes<\/a> on Qatar\u2019s Ras Laffan hub, the largest liquified natural gas plant in the world. All told, 75 critical energy infrastructures across the region have been attacked, more than a third of them severely, IEA executive director Fatih Birol said in an interview<\/a> with Le Figaro this week. Repairs will take a long time \u2013 three to five years, in the case of Ras Laffan, provided that officials feel it\u2019s safe for the work to begin. <\/p>\n Passing the buck<\/p>\n So, yes, oil prices tumbled more than 15 per cent<\/a> after Trump\u2019s abrupt ceasefire announcement, in the biggest one-day drop since the spring of 2020. But at around US$95, the cost of a barrel remains well above pre-war levels, and consumers are still feeling the effects<\/a> of those energy hikes. Groceries are getting more expensive. The prices of phones and laptops are poised to go up. Airlines have already consolidated flights, raised baggage fees and tacked on gas surcharges \u2013 and there\u2019s no guarantee the jet-fuel shortage<\/a> will end before summer travel season begins.<\/p>\n Plus, it looks like we\u2019re in for another sticker shock: Iran said it will only allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz if they cough up US$2-million each. Industry experts have taken to calling it the Tehran Toll Booth, and yesterday, Trump floated the idea of getting in on the scheme. \u201cWe\u2019re thinking of doing it as a joint venture,\u201d he told<\/a> ABC News\u2019 Jonathan Karl. \u201cIt\u2019s a beautiful thing.\u201d <\/p>\n The Shot\u2018I want to go to Mars.\u2019Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n Gabriella Lamberti \u2013 and her telescope \u2013 at home in Vaughan, Ont.Fred Lum\/The Globe and Mail<\/p>\n Ten-year-old Gabriella Lamberti can fashion rocket ships out of cardboard boxes, or marshmallows and toothpicks, or plastic kits that are meant to build forts \u2013 and she\u2019s a major fan of Canadian astronaut Jeremy Hansen. Read more about her space ambitions here<\/a>.<\/p>\n The WrapWhat else we\u2019re following<\/p>\n At home: Toronto police say their new counterterrorism unit led to the speedy arrest<\/a> of a man charged with shooting at a Jewish restaurant last week.<\/p>\n Abroad: Ethiopia\u2019s mothers are bearing the costs<\/a> of struggling health services, after the Trump administration shuttered USAID and took away US$1.8-billion in annual funds. <\/p>\n Politics: The Quebec government has prorogued the legislature<\/a> as the Coalition Avenir Qu\u00e9bec gets ready to choose its new leader \u2013 and the new premier \u2013 this weekend.<\/p>\n Sports: Whatever else is going on, FIFA\u2019s World Cup machine<\/a> keeps rolling.<\/p>\n In: Canadian Tire has revealed the first products it designed<\/a> with Hudson\u2019s Bay iconic stripes. (I\u2019m partial to the deck chair.)<\/p>\n