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\n Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.\u00a0Photo: Joe Raedle\/Getty Images <\/p>\n
\n Donald Trump shakes hands with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club on Dec. 29, 2025, in Palm Beach, Fla.\u00a0Photo: Joe Raedle\/Getty Images <\/p>\n
The ceasefire announced Tuesday night by President Donald Trump and confirmed by Iranian officials is on life support. If Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu gets his way, it may soon be dead.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Over the first 36 hours of the supposed ceasefire, hundreds have been killed and thousands injured in Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The attacks extended beyond Israeli\u2019s traditional targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut\u2019s outskirts into the central parts of the capital \u2014 and may mark the heaviest bombardment<\/a> of the country<\/a> since Israel\u2019s 1982 invasion<\/a>.<\/p>\n Trump suggested the ceasefire remains intact because Israel\u2019s attacks are \u201ca separate skirmish,\u201d but the official announcement<\/a> of the agreement described \u201can immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon.\u201d The language was put forward by Pakistan\u2019s prime minister, who had brokered the deal and, according to the New York Times, the U.S. had seen the text<\/a> before it was publicly released.<\/p>\n The words \u201cincluding Lebanon,\u201d however, lasted no longer than it took for Netanyahu to talk to Trump<\/a> immediately before the ceasefire announcement. Trump confirmed<\/a> Thursday that he told Netanyahu to \u201clow-key it,\u201d appearing to give Israel a green light to immediately violate the ceasefire and put it at risk of collapse.<\/p>\n In response, Iran says it will not open the Strait of Hormuz so long as Israel is violating the ceasefire. And planned talks in Islamabad for the U.S. and Iran to hammer out a longer-term agreement during the two-week ceasefire window have been thrown into doubt.<\/p>\n Netanyahu once said, \u201cAmerica is a thing you can move very easily.\u201d<\/p>\n For his part, Netanyahu sought to dispel any notion that the Iran war was ending, emphasizing that the ceasefire is temporary and \u201ca way station<\/a> on the way to achieving all of our goals.\u201d<\/p>\n When it comes exerting Israeli influence on the U.S., Netanyahu once infamously said, \u201cAmerica is a thing you can move very easily<\/a>.\u201d Indeed, according to reports<\/a>, it was Netanyahu who convinced Trump to launch this war in the first place<\/a>.<\/p>\n Now, potentially upending U.S. efforts to disentangle itself from conflict with Iran, the Israeli prime minister finds himself on familiar footing: playing the role of spoiler against any form of U.S.\u2013Iran d\u00e9tente.<\/p>\n Decades of D\u00e9tente-Busting<\/p>\n America\u2019s supposed junior partner has worked ceaselessly to prevent any off-ramp from confrontation between the U.S. and Iran. In 1995, when Iran and the U.S. flirted with economic rapprochement by opening the Iran oil industry to American investment and development, Israel and AIPAC lobbied Congress and President Bill Clinton to block it<\/a>.<\/p>\n In 2002, as Iran worked directly with the U.S. on Afghanistan in the aftermath of September 11, seeking a grand bargain, Israel interdicted a weapons shipment it said was bound for Palestinian forces, making questionable claims<\/a> about the shipment\u2019s Iranian provenance. The seizure helped tank the exploratory talks on Afghanistan and convinced President George W. Bush instead to infamously cast Iran as part of the \u201caxis of evil.\u201d<\/p>\n Over the course of President Barack Obama\u2019s Iran nuclear talks from 2013 to 2015, Israel worked to block a deal \u2014 with Netanyahu engaging in unprecedented efforts to sabotage diplomacy. He even addressed a joint session of Congress against a nuclear deal over the White House\u2019s objections<\/a>. Ultimately, Netanyahu succeeded with Trump\u2019s ascension: Under intense lobbying<\/a>, Trump tore up the deal<\/a> and nearly brought the countries to war before his first term ended.<\/p>\n Joe Biden campaigned on reentering the deal, but that aim was prematurely dispatched during Biden\u2019s transition when Israel assassinated Iran\u2019s top nuclear scientist in 2020<\/a>, prompting Iranian hard-liners to pass legislation that blew up talks<\/a>. When negotiations finally began in earnest in 2021, Israel launched an attack on Iran\u2019s Natanz nuclear facility<\/a>. Iran responded by announcing it would, for the first time, enrich uranium to nearly weapons-grade. The talks, predictably, failed.<\/p>\n We\u2019re independent of corporate interests \u2014 and powered by members. Join us. <\/p>\n Join Our Newsletter <\/p>\n Thank You For Joining! <\/p>\n \n Original reporting. Fearless journalism. Delivered to you. <\/p>\n Will you take the next step to support our independent journalism by becoming a member of The Intercept?\n <\/p>\n By signing up, I agree to receive emails from The Intercept and to the Privacy Policy<\/a> and Terms of Use<\/a>.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s Second Term<\/p>\n Though Trump has proved to be a willing partner in Netanyahu\u2019s push to increase tensions with Iran, Israel nonetheless now found ways to play the spoiler \u2014 much in the same manner it did with Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden.<\/p>\n These were not wars to defeat Iran, but rather wars to defeat U.S. diplomatic efforts.<\/p>\n The Israelis successfully turned two round of nuclear talks during Trump\u2019s second term into cover for surprise attacks. Both the war on Iran in June 2025<\/a> and the current one were initiated not amid great diplomatic impasses, but when Iran put forward workable proposals. In both cases, U.S. officials said Israel was going to act regardless of the American position \u2014 and so the U.S. had to join the wars.<\/p>\n These were not wars to defeat Iran, but rather wars to defeat U.S. diplomatic efforts. They are the kinetic manifestation of Israel\u2019s long efforts<\/a> to keep the U.S. in a permanent state of war<\/a> with Iran, sometimes cold, sometimes hot.<\/p>\n If U.S.\u2013Iran talks do move forward and there actually is progress toward hammering out a sustainable cessation of hostilities, Israel will remain a wildcard. Any long-term ceasefire will require Israel\u2019s acquiescence.<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n If Netanyahu tanks the ceasefire and the U.S. and global economy continues to suffer, Israel\u2019s already plunging support among Americans is likely to falter even further. At this point, however, Netanyahu seems more concerned with his domestic political welfare than his credibility with American voters. <\/p>\n Netanyahu is widely thought to benefit from wars<\/a> \u2014 from Gaza to Iran and now, most critically, in Lebanon \u2014 to shore up his political fortunes<\/a>. He faces an election in October and losing could lead to the revival of corruption charges that might land him in prison.<\/p>\n
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