![\"Vessels](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/69f32d668a40723ae0cd5e7a4b2964e2.jpeg\")
Vessels off the coast of Musandam Governorate, overlooking the strait of Hormuz, in Musandam governance in Oman, on April 8, 2026. – Reuters <\/p>\n Vessels off the coast of Musandam Governorate, overlooking the strait of Hormuz, in Musandam governance in Oman, on April 8, 2026. – Reuters <\/p>\n
A fragile ceasefire that\u2019s mostly quieted the skies over the Middle East isn\u2019t giving shippers the nerve to brave the narrow waterway that holds the key to 20% of the world\u2019s oil supply.<\/p>\n
The Strait of Hormuz may be officially re-opening for business, but shipping company executives and analysts told CNN uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire<\/a> is still making transit too risky right now. Explicit approval and safety assurances from Iran, clear guidance on how and when to transit and a long-term view of the strait\u2019s future are all so far missing, shippers told CNN.<\/p>\n Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth-largest shipping company in the world, has six container ships trapped in the strait, but it\u2019s keeping them put for now.<\/p>\n \u201cOur top priority is the safety of our employees on land and on sea. Based on our current risk assessment we are refraining from transiting the strait,\u201d spokesman Nils Haupt said.<\/p>\n Word of a two-week ceasefire sent oil plunging and stocks soaring<\/a> on Wednesday, a reflection of the strait\u2019s importance to global commerce. That rally has given way to a reality check: Despite repeated assurances from President Donald Trump that the strait is open, only a few ships<\/a> have made the journey in recent days. Oil, after notching double-digit declines, is again flirting with $100 a barrel.<\/p>\n Indeed, Lale Akoner, a global market analyst at financial services company eToro, told CNN it could take six months to get ship traffic back to where it was before the war began. More than 100 cargo-carrying vessels moved through the 21-mile-wide waterway daily before the conflict, according to shipping-data provider Lloyd\u2019s List. That means the economic consequences of the war<\/a> \u2013 higher energy costs<\/a> and their varied knock-on effects \u2013 are likely to well outlast the fighting.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s why: Shippers are hesitant to trust a ceasefire that\u2019s already been shaky, especially without direction on which ships can go when. Just two oil or gas tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced, according to Kpler, a data intelligence and analytics platform. Over 400 tankers, 34 LPG tankers and 19 LNG vessels remained in the region as of Wednesday, according to MarineTraffic data.<\/p>\n And ships don\u2019t just need to get out \u2013 they also need to get in, so that they can load up stored-up oil that\u2019s been trapped on land for weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cVessel operators believe it\u2019s not worth taking the risk,\u201d said Joe McMonigle, president of think tank Global Center for Energy Analysis and who lives in Saudi Arabia. \u201cPeople are going to be extremely cautious about going back to normal.\u201d<\/p>\n Story Continues <\/p>\n While other critical goods like fertilizer flow through the straight, oil is the number one priority.<\/p>\n \u201cThe ceasefire removes the worst-case scenario, but it\u2019s temporary and conditional,\u201d said eToro\u2019s Akoner.<\/p>\n Behind the scenes shipping companies are trying to figure out how to get their ships out of the Persian Gulf safely.<\/p>\n Shipping executives say they have \u201cno information\u201d on how to transit the strait during the ceasefire and are not in contact with Iranian authorities, according to Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, a global shipping logistics company.<\/p>\n Shipping experts say Iran is still in charge of the strait \u2013 and those authorities haven\u2019t laid out a plan for safe passage yet.<\/p>\n Mart\u00edn Izaguirre Salgado, a seafarer who has been stuck on board his company\u2019s oil tanker in the Persian Gulf since late February, said as of Thursday, they were still stuck.<\/p>\n Shippers want \u201cexplicit approval from the people that may do you harm,\u201d said Ron Widdows, the former head of the World Shipping Council. \u201cHow that process works, who exactly is the body that\u2019s got the authority to say, \u2018Yeah, you can or not.,\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n Adding to the uncertainty, Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Thursday that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> slowed sharply and then stopped following what it said was an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.<\/p>\n Tankers that have been stuck in the strait for weeks aren\u2019t the only issue.<\/p>\n \u201cYou also must have a willingness of empty tankers to come back in through the strait, refill and then go back out,\u201d an oil industry source told CNN. \u201cThat whole process takes several days.\u201d<\/p>\n Hapag-Lloyd, for example, has no vessels waiting to get into the waterway. \u201cThat would not make sense at all,\u201d spokesman Haupt said.<\/p>\n Instead, shipping companies are \u201cbasically waiting until others test\u201d passage, said Flexport\u2019s Manders.<\/p>\n \u201cOil tankers and vessels of Chinese origin will likely test these waters first,\u201d Manders said. (China is an Iranian ally.)<\/p>\n Iran is also now raising charging a new toll to get out of the strait.<\/p>\n \u201cThe IRGC has been charging ships up to $2 million per tanker to transit. Payment is accepted in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrencies, bypassing the dollar-based financial system and US sanctions,\u201d said Manders.<\/p>\n A woman fills up her vehicle’s tank at a gas station in the Hamilton Heights neighborhood in the Manhattan borough of New York on March 31, 2026. – Charly Triballeau\/AFP\/Getty Images <\/p>\n
Shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. – Marine Traffic <\/p>\n