Those international automakers account for roughly a third of sales in the Middle East, according to the report, led by Toyota at 17%, Hyundai<\/a> at 10% and Chery<\/a> at 5%. In Iran specifically, Bernstein reports Iranian automakers Iran Khodro and SAIPA lead, followed by Chery with a 6% market share.<\/p>\n Other Chinese carmakers also are expected to be impacted, as the Middle East has become a growing destination for Chinese auto exports. Bernstein, citing China export data, said the region accounted for about 17% of China’s passenger vehicle exports in 2025.<\/p>\n The Bernstein report notes that while sales in the region will be impacted, the closing of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, which links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean, and rising oil prices<\/a> will have ripple effects across the global automotive industry.<\/p>\n “Closure of the Strait of Hormuz adds 10-14 days to transit times,” Bernstein analyst Eunice Lee said in a Wednesday investor note, adding “a prolonged conflict and closure of the strait would hurt sales, increase logistics costs, and delay deliveries.”<\/p>\n Roughly 20 million barrels of crude oil travel through the strait every day, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. It’s also a “critical passage” for vehicle and parts shipments to the Middle East, Bernstein noted.<\/p>\n Bernstein said any effect on Japanese automakers “appears limited for now, but close monitoring of developments is still required.” It also said, of the European automakers, Chrysler and Jeep parent Stellantis<\/a> “seems to have the largest exposure in light of its overall issues.”<\/p>\n![\"Julian](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/108274697-6ED1-WEX-030626-Julian.jpg\")
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