00:00 Speaker A <\/p>\n
First, here’s the Dow. It’s underwater today. It has not been one of the huge outperformers over these last 11 days. But let me show you what’s going on with the Nasdaq. We are seeing another day of gains over 1%. That’s up 1.37%. Nasdaq is set for its 11th straight day of gains and that’s ditto for the semiconductor index, the so-called socks as well as XLK, that’s large cap tech. So tech has just seen this monster rally. Now here’s the S&P 500, it is up 3\/4 of 1% and let me show you what it’s done over these last 11 days. It’s up over 10%. So I went back in history and I found 23 times since 1962 that the S&P 500 has been up 10% in 11 days and those usually have pretty good returns. You’re talking about a year out up 20% over 80% of the time, but three of those times, only three of those times did it get back up to those record highs, which is what we’re looking at right now. March 2000, uh 1982 someplace in there and also uh November of 2020. Now 82 and 2020 were good buys, but March 2000, that was the top of the tech boom and that was not very good. So, we don’t have a lot of data there in terms of uh, you know, these rallies into record highs, but that’s something to think about. <\/p>\n
01:13 Speaker A <\/p>\n
Let’s talk oil. Uh fell yesterday, right? Stable today. You got these reports saying, you saw this, US and Iran could hold new peace talks as soon as this week. What are you seeing in the oil market? <\/p>\n
01:29 Jake <\/p>\n
Yeah, you’re right. It’s flat. Futures today, roughly flat, slightly below the flat line. Also physical prices like we were talking about yesterday, have moderated down from roughly 160 per barrel a week ago to now about 100 per barrel. So that’s a marked drop. What’s driving this? It’s these peace talks. It’s the chance that we could be seeing US-Iran negotiations as soon as this week resuming as you said. <\/p>\n
02:03 Jake <\/p>\n
Now, that said, US officials have stressed there is no agreement to extend the ceasefire yet. Iran’s military is saying that if the US naval blockade doesn’t end, it will move to disrupt trade throughout the Gulf. So there are still there’s still some escalation to come here, but we saw more of President Trump’s interview with Fox News today. He’s telling Fox he thinks the war is very close to over, signaling a pretty bullish sign for the end of this war. You see oil holding flat on <\/p>\n
02:49 Jake <\/p>\n
Traders are saying, let’s see what happens. Let’s see if we get these talks. Let’s see where things go and then we’ll start trading oil and see where the movement goes. <\/p>\n
03:03 Speaker A <\/p>\n
Let’s say you get a peace deal done, Jake. How long before the straight of Hormuz could return to something like normal? Like what what could it be what could like a rough timeline be? <\/p>\n
03:12 Jake <\/p>\n
It’s going to be a long time. and I’ll give you a few reasons. So right now there are 400 tankers holding oil trapped in the Gulf that can’t get out. Outside of that that straight, there are several hundred other tankers sitting there waiting to load. There are also taker tankers around the globe that would have to get there and start reloading, removing. Even if you take out the logistics of moving that many ships at once. New data out today showed that the outages at the wellhead, shut-ins where production has been shut down have now totaled 430 million barrels of oil. This is across Saudi Arabia, across Kuwait, across Iraq, across Oman. You see these wellhead shut ins. And the problem is that when you shut down a well, you can’t just turn it back on. There are pressure issues, there are water issues. Depending on how long that well is shut down, restarting it could be days or weeks or months. Every strategist I talked to tells me the tail of this is expected to be measured in at least months. We saw Rystad Energy saying this morning, just the bill to repair infrastructure alone that’s been damaged could be as high as $58 billion. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"00:00 Speaker A First, here’s the Dow. It’s underwater today. It has not been one of the huge…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68673,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[102,16965,25537,572,10060,722,101],"class_list":{"0":"post-68672","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-strait-of-hormuz","8":"tag-hormuz","9":"tag-jake-conley","10":"tag-jared-blikre","11":"tag-nasdaq-composite","12":"tag-naval-blockade","13":"tag-president-trump","14":"tag-strait-of-hormuz"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116410606170346082","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68672","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68672"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68672\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68672"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68672"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68672"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}