{"id":69550,"date":"2026-04-17T06:16:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/69550\/"},"modified":"2026-04-17T06:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T06:16:15","slug":"uk-in-worst-case-scenario-planning-for-food-shortages-as-a-result-of-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/69550\/","title":{"rendered":"UK in \u2018worst-case scenario\u2019 planning for food shortages as a result of Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The UK could see shortages<\/a> of key supermarket goods this summer if the Iran war<\/a> continues, a leaked government document has revealed. <\/p>\n

Officials have put together contingency plans for a \u201creasonable worst-case scenario\u201d, highlighting that the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz <\/a>shipping route could lead to carbon dioxide shortages. <\/p>\n

The secret analysis \u2013 first reported by The Times<\/a> \u2013 was codenamed \u201cExercise Turnstone\u201d and was run by the government\u2019s emergency committee, Cobra. <\/p>\n

\"TheThe government has begun planning for shortages in case the Iran war continues (AFP\/Getty)<\/p>\n

It showed that No 10, the Treasury, and the Ministry of Defence were all involved in rehearsing scenarios looking at the impact of the Iran war on British industry. <\/p>\n

The \u201creasonable worst-case scenario\u201d was based on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz had not been reopened and no peace deal had been reached<\/a>. <\/p>\n

It warned supplies of CO2 could fall to just 18 per cent of current levels \u2013 a warning that was based on a key UK plant suffering a mechanical error, and high gas costs leading to a fall in production across Europe of ammonia and fertiliser, which make CO2 as a by-product.<\/p>\n

It is thought that farming and hospitality would be the two worst-hit industries, because CO2 is used to prolong the shelf life of foods, including salad, packaged meats, and baked goods. <\/p>\n

CO2 is also used in the process of slaughtering pigs and chickens, a sector that is not thought to have much in the way of stockpiled supplies. <\/p>\n

Breweries could also be hit by shortages because of CO2\u2019s use in making drinks fizzy, sparking concerns that shortages could disrupt the Fifa World Cup, which starts in June. <\/p>\n

But a government spokesperson said that reasonable worst-case scenarios are \u201ca planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events\u201d. <\/p>\n

Asked about the leak, the business secretary said the public should be \u201creassured\u201d that ministers are making contingency plans for the impact of the Iran war. <\/p>\n

\u201cIt is difficult for me, because, of course, these leaks are very unhelpful,\u201d Peter Kyle said. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut when people do read it, they need to be reassured that we are doing this kind of planning, and we are doing this kind of scenario planning.<\/p>\n

\u201cBear in mind that back in Covid, Boris Johnson missed five Cobra meetings in the lead-up to it.<\/p>\n

\u201cI can tell you, because I\u2019m in these meetings, the prime minister has been there since the very start, and he is going through personally and driving deep dives into lots of areas of resilience throughout our economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr Kyle pointed to his own decision near the start of the conflict to reverse the mothballing of the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside to secure supplies of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n

He added: \u201cPeople should be reassured that we are doing this kind of action behind the scenes to keep resilience in our economy, so that when the full extent of what may or may not emerge, because this situation is still unfolding in the Middle East, you have a government that is acting with creativity and boldness.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mr Kyle also insisted that supplies of carbon dioxide are \u201cnot a concern\u201d for the UK. <\/p>\n

\"PeterPeter Kyle insisted that supplies of carbon dioxide are \u2018not a concern\u2019 for the UK (Getty)<\/p>\n

Asked about the availability of CO2 in the country, he told Sky News: \u201cIf any of these things change, I will be up front with the public about it in advance so that we can prepare. But right now, people should go on as they are, enjoying beer, enjoying their meats, enjoying all the salads.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut also, there are critical uses for CO2: MRI scanning, for example, water purification; it\u2019s involved in our nuclear industry, our civil nuclear power industry, some defensive uses for it as well. <\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s lots of needs for CO2, so these are the reasons why I took it so seriously way back to six months ago, not just in the last few weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n

Karen Betts, chief executive at the Food and Drink Federation said that consumers should \u201cnot be concerned about shortages\u201d and noted that, where possible, producers would look to shield customers from price hikes. Even so, they are set to rise in the second half of 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe UK\u2019s food and drink manufacturers are agile and resilient. However, the war in the Middle East is causing supply chain disruption which is starting to push up manufacturing costs, including for energy, road and sea freight, packaging and some commodities,\u201d Ms Betts said.<\/p>\n

\u201cManufacturers will work hard to protect consumers from price rises but, even under an optimistic scenario, our forecast is that food inflation will reach at least 9 per cent by December.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are engaging government to ensure they are acting to reduce costs where possible for food and drink manufacturers, to mitigate the impact of rising food prices on inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n

To prevent the \u201creasonable worst-case scenario\u201d from unfolding, The Times reported, ministers have drawn up plans to ask factories to increase CO2 production to 100 per cent by ceasing other manufacturing. <\/p>\n

They have also discussed emergency legislation to compel the factories to cooperate, which could be passed in just a few days of parliamentary time, as well as relaxing competition law to allow the prioritisation of more limited CO2 supplies to key areas, including healthcare. <\/p>\n

A government spokesperson said: \u201cWe took decisive action last month to shore up the UK\u2019s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.<\/p>\n

\u201cReasonable worst-case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Your support helps us to tell the story From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":69551,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[328,18580,16601,5326,13360,18221,3077,5084,34,25952,25949,25953,396,6500,201,81,5485,25951,811,25950],"class_list":{"0":"post-69550","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran","8":"tag-business","9":"tag-business-finance-and-industry","10":"tag-cabinet-meeting","11":"tag-central-london","12":"tag-color-image","13":"tag-downing-street","14":"tag-england","15":"tag-horizontal","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-london-england","18":"tag-looking-at-camera","19":"tag-one-person","20":"tag-people","21":"tag-peter-kyle","22":"tag-photography","23":"tag-politics","24":"tag-politics-and-government","25":"tag-portrait","26":"tag-uk","27":"tag-waist-up"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116418588526719125","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/69551"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}