![\"Fuel](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/shutterstock-2050847999-1024x683.jpg\")
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\u00a9Shutterstock<\/p>\n
Tariq Mahmood, Canada<\/p>\n
After almost two months of fighting, the name of one location in particular is ringing in everyone\u2019s ears:\u00a0the Strait of Hormuz. Whether it\u2019s politicians shouting expletives in all caps over social media, demanding the strait be opened, or whether it\u2019s your relatives arguing over how important the strait actually is \u2013 needless to say, we can all feel the effects of this war.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Just some days ago (18th\u00a0of April 2026), the Strait of Hormuz was once again closed. But why is this tiny bit of water so important, and how did we land in such a situation?<\/p>\n
Why is Oil So Important?<\/p>\n
The world needs oil, and lots of it. It\u2019s not just transportation fuel \u2013 oil is an \u2018efficient\u2019 energy source \u2013 it\u2019s easy to find, extract, ship around, and use, so making it the easiest option.<\/p>\n
But oil is so much more than energy: also needed to make all plastics, synthetic rubber, medicine, fabrics \u2013 basically dozens of fundamental products every human needs.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s why oil doesn\u2019t seem like such a big deal (2-3% of global GDP) but can impact 90% of the world\u2019s economy: almost all food production (through fertilizers), manufacturing, construction, travel, shipping, etc. is done with oil as its bedrock.<\/p>\n
When it comes to oil, not all countries are equal. There\u2019s a group of privileged oil producers known as OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) which includes Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Iran, and Kuwait. This organization comes together to determine how much oil they will sell, how much they\u2019ll produce, etc. If they restrict oil, prices go up; if they open the taps, the prices go down.<\/p>\n
The above five countries produce roughly 26% of the world\u2019s fuel.[1]\u00a0More importantly, they consume far less than they produce. Why does this matter?<\/p>\n
The United State produces 22% of the world\u2019s oil, but it consumes 20% of the world\u2019s oil, leaving little for export. For context, Saudi Arabia produces 11% of the world\u2019s oil but consumes only 4%.[2]\u00a0This means it can export much more oil to countries like China, which only produces 5% of the world\u2019s oil, but consumes a whopping 15%.<\/p>\n
Why the Strait of Hormuz is So Important<\/p>\n
Simply put, the Strait of Hormuz is the focal point of all Middle East oil transportation. It\u2019s very narrow \u2013 only 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest \u2013 and connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. At least \u201820% of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) usually passes through the strait\u2019[3],\u00a0with China and India receiving the largest amount.[4]\u00a0Europe imports about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil through the Strait.[5]\u00a0Other Asian countries like Japan and South Korea are particularly devastated by such a closure \u2013 Japan relies on approximately 90% of its oil from the Middle East, whilst South Korea relies on 70-80% of its fuel from there. We\u2019re looking at over\u00a0five billion people in countries around the world, relying on oil from the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
If these countries\u00a0could\u00a0find another efficient way to get the oil out, they would. They simply\u00a0cannot.<\/p>\n
You might wonder, \u2018why doesn\u2019t Saudi Arabia build a pipeline across the country to ship it on the other side?\u2019 Well, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have such pipelines, but it\u2019s not nearly enough for the oil needed. Furthermore, most of the oil is bound for Asia, and Saudi Arabia\u2019s pipeline puts the oil over a thousand kilometres further away.[6]<\/p>\n
Still, this doesn\u2019t solve the problem for Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq or Iran. They are still stranded due to the ongoing war.<\/p>\n
Who Stands to Lose the Most?<\/p>\n
To efficiently break down the nations most affected and damaged by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the shortages can be split into\u00a0three tiers of economic affliction.<\/p>\n
Tier 1: Critical<\/p>\n
The Gulf States (Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar) will be devastated by this closure. Nearly 60% of Iran\u2019s government expenditures relies, and 90% of export revenues originate from oil and gas resources.[7]\u00a0For countries like Qatar, its \u2018earnings from its hydrocarbon sector accounted for 83% of total government revenues in 2023\u2019.[8]\u00a0Even worse, oil accounts for ~90% of Iraq\u2019s government revenue, with the vast majority transiting Hormuz, without any viable bypass. Even countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who have pipelines, will face great economic struggles, as their oil industry is severely damaged, whilst their tourism industry is hampered as well.<\/p>\n
This prompts experts to believe that total economic collapse is on the horizon for some Arab states. Whilst many parts of the world think about war from their own country\u2019s perspective, the greatest loser in this war is the Middle East by a long shot. Whilst the world worries about oil prices, tens of millions are facing the economic downturn of the greatest oil shock in history.[9]<\/p>\n
In fact, the worldwide of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community, His Holiness Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (aba) spoke regarding this very topic at the beginning of the war, when the depths of its economic impact were not yet even realised.\u00a0<\/p>\n
As a Muslim leader of millions globally and a resolute proponent of world peace, His Holiness (aba) stands against all forms of injustice and all things which contravene the establishement of a peaceful and harmonious world.\u00a0\u00a0Thus, he stated:<\/p>\n
\u2018I do not believe that such powers [Western powers] would willingly bear these losses; rather, they will recover this money from those Arab countries by claiming they are defending them.<\/p>\n
On the one hand, their oil fields are being shut down, inflation is rising, and oil production is declining; on the other hand, they will also have to bear the costs of these defensive measures. Consequently, their reserves will diminish significantly and may even become exhausted.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the economies of the Arab world will suffer greatly. Although the Western world and major powers may also experience some losses, the greatest loss will fall upon the Arabs. This is something they should yet understand.\u2019[10]<\/p>\n
East Asia, including Japan and South Korea, will also feel the economic devastation due to a lack of domestic oil. Although both countries have reserves (Japan has ~240 days, South Korea has ~208), their entire economy could grind to a halt in a matter of months.<\/p>\n
Last but certainly not least, countries that rely on oil from the Strait of Hormuz with little to no domestic reserves, will suffer far worse than East Asia. Countries like Bangladesh, a country of 175 million people, began feeling the effects of this war days after it started, with some people lining up in queues for 2 hours, only to be turned back because no petrol was left.[11]\u00a0For Pakistan\u2019s 260 million, petrol and diesel prices rose more than 50%, creating deep wounds in the wallets of Pakistani breadwinners.[12]\u00a0The effects will only worsen with the summer months as well, when electricity demand skyrockets.<\/p>\n
Tier 2: Severe<\/p>\n
Countries in this tier will be directly damaged by the closure of the Strait but will not face collapse. China, for example, does possess domestic oil and gas, but not enough to allow its industries to operate as normal. Currently, 40-50% of its crude oil transits through the strait, but it also possesses oil reserves, and can receive oil from Saudi Arabia through the Saudi pipeline, which delivers its oil to the Western Coast (Red Sea). This is\u00a0only\u00a0a short buffer, and cannot be a long-term solution. Furthermore, liquid natural gas is truly the more worrying concern, as Qatar (one of the world\u2019s leading LNG exporters) cannot utilise any pipeline and must suffer the closure of Hormuz. In the long term, China would certainly focus on domestic energy production in order to reduce risk, but for now, the risk is severe.[13]<\/p>\n
India falls into a similar tier. The BBC notes: \u2018India is the world\u2019s third-largest importer of crude, but 60% of its natural gas and over 90% of LPG imports (it is the world\u2019s second largest consumer) also originate from the region\u2019, a factor that many are overlooking. Furthermore, \u2018A quarter of its\u00a0fertiliser imports\u00a0are also from Middle Eastern countries and supply disruptions could pose problems for its vast agrarian economy\u2019.[14]\u00a0Other regions like Southeast Asia also face these shortages.<\/p>\n
Some African countries also receive a majority of their oil from the Middle East, including Uganda, Mauritius, and Kenyam who receive more than 50% of their energy imports from the Gulf region.\u00a0\u00a0Beyond oil and natural gas, \u2018A sustained\u00a0rise in the cost of fertilizer\u00a0could force governments in\u2026 sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops\u2026 [which] could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.\u2019[15]<\/p>\n
Tier 3: Serious<\/p>\n
European countries perhaps feel like the war\u2019s effects have reached their gas pumps, but this war\u2019s continuation will only worsen in the months to come. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has even gone as far as to say recently that the economic impact of this war would rival the COVID economic downturn.[16]\u00a0Also notable is the fact that Europe and Asia may soon compete against one another for oil and LNG shipments. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever even noted that the best solution would likely be to \u2018normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy\u2019.[17]\u00a0Notwithstanding, Europe does not rely on oil and LNG from the Strait of Hormuz as others do.<\/p>\n
South America also sources much of its oil from countries such as Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Ecuador, and Colombia, among others. This makes it somewhat secure against shortages, especially due to a shorter distance to the United States, Canada and Mexico.<\/p>\n
Notwithstanding, every country in the world will continue to feel fluctuating oil costs, with many countries at risk of entering \u2018stagflation\u2019, an economic term to describe the perfect storm of slow economic growth with high inflation. With the war\u2019s continuation, the best-case scenario seems to be recession and struggle, and the worst-case seems to be global catastrophe.<\/p>\n
Conclusion: Who Stands to Benefit?<\/p>\n
If you\u2019ve perhaps noticed, the United States does not fall under any of the above tiers, for a very simple reason: they risk very little in this war. The United States ramped up oil production in the 2010s to secure itself against oil shortages. Thus,\u00a0\u2018the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is\u00a0much less severe\u2019.[18]\u00a0When it comes to liquified natural gas, the United States is actually the world\u2019s leading exporter \u2013 it has been increasing production over the last few years and will continue to do so for the next decade.[19]\u00a0[20]\u00a0Israel also sources most of its fuel from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, thus avoiding the Strait of Hormuz entirely.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Regarding this, His Holiness (aba) astutely states the reality:<\/p>\n
\u2018Some analysts even claim that this [war] is economically costly for the United States. However, this remains merely an opinion. Such powers calculate everything carefully in advance and carry out thorough assessments. They would already have planned for all of this. I do not believe that such powers would willingly bear these losses; rather, they will recover this money from those Arab countries by claiming they are defending them.\u2019[21]<\/p>\n
When we ask ourselves, \u2018who suffers most from the closing of this strait\u2019, we must also ask ourselves who stand to benefit?<\/p>\n
In reality, the entire enterprise of war is only permissible when others stand by and allow injustice to occur. Thus, when we observe the bombing of schools full of innocent children, when we see the struggles that billions will face if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and when a world war is lays itself out before our very eyes, we must then decide whether or not we will seek out change \u2013 if that\u2019s through donating to charities, having a powerful conversation with ill-informed friends, or sending an ardent prayer to God in the middle of the night.<\/p>\n
Note: Many of the figures provided vary depending on the source one reads. However, the risks, complications, and outcomes remain the same.<\/p>\n About the Author:\u00a0Tariq Mahmood is an Imam of the Ahmadiyya Muslim Community in Canada and serves in the editorial board of The Review of Religions.<\/p>\n ENDNOTES<\/p>\n [1]\u00a0https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/tools\/faqs\/faq.php?id=709&t=6<\/a><\/p>\n [2]\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n [3]\u00a0https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c78n6p09pzno<\/a><\/p>\n [4]\u00a0https:\/\/www.iea.org\/about\/oil-security-and-emergency-response\/strait-of-hormuz<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n [5]\u00a0https:\/\/www.iea.org\/about\/oil-security-and-emergency-response\/strait-of-hormuz<\/a><\/p>\n [6]\u00a0https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/strait-hormuz-alternatives-oil-9.7168112<\/a><\/p>\n [7]\u00a0https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0140988311001101<\/a><\/p>\n [8]\u00a0https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/international\/analysis\/country\/QAT<\/a><\/p>\n [9]\u00a0https:\/\/abcnews.com\/Business\/iran-war-triggered-severe-oil-supply-shock-history\/story?id=132024753<\/p>\n [10]\u00a0His Holiness Hazrat Mirza Masroor Ahmad (aba),\u00a0Friday Sermon, Delivered 6th\u00a0March, 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n [11]\u00a0https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/asia\/south-asia\/oil-fuel-shortage-bangladesh-asia-iran-war-b2949757.html<\/a><\/p>\n [12]\u00a0https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/pakistan-fuel-prices-increase-iran-war-d649ed3d36e603d57ed5a0e374858832<\/a><\/p>\n [13]<\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/www.energypolicy.columbia.edu\/implications-of-the-conflict-in-the-middle-east-for-chinas-energy-security\/<\/a><\/p>\n [14]\u00a0https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cn43wllgn4vo<\/a><\/p>\n [15]\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/03\/23\/business\/energy-environment\/oil-importers-middle-east-iran-war.html<\/a><\/p>\n [16]\u00a0https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/as-iran-war-rages-europe-gears-up-for-energy-crisis\/a-76641027<\/a><\/p>\n [17]\u00a0Ibid.<\/p>\n [18]\u00a0https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2026\/03\/23\/business\/energy-environment\/oil-importers-middle-east-iran-war.html<\/p>\n [19]<\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/us\/biden-administration-approves-more-exports-major-us-lng-terminals-2022-03-16\/<\/a><\/p>\n