By Samia Nakhoul<\/p>\n
DUBAI, April 20 (Reuters)- – A warning by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has crystallised fears among Gulf states that reopening the Strait of Hormuz may be the most Iran-U.S. talks can achieve, falling short of the broader de-escalation they regard as vital.<\/p>\n
Officials and analysts expect the next round of negotiations, due in Islamabad, will focus increasingly not on Iran’s missiles or regional proxies but on uranium enrichment limits and how to handle \u200cIran\u2019s leverage over the Strait, the world\u2019s most critical oil shipping route.<\/p>\n
Gulf officials warn the approach risks entrenching Iran’s grip on Middle East energy supplies by managing rather than dismantling its leverage, prioritising global economic stability even while leaving \u200cthe countries most exposed to the energy and security consequences outside formal decision-making.<\/p>\n
Gulf sources say U.S.\u2013Iran diplomacy is now centered less on rolling back Iran\u2019s missile programme and more on enrichment levels and tacitly accepting Tehran\u2019s leverage over Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil supplies.<\/p>\n
Although negotiations remain stalled over enrichment, with Iran \u200brejecting both zero enrichment and demands to ship its stockpiles abroad, Gulf officials say the shift in priorities itself is troubling.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the end of the day, Hormuz will be the red line,\u201d one Gulf source close to government circles said. \u201cIt wasn\u2019t an issue before. It is now. The goal posts have moved.\u201d<\/p>\n
There was no immediate response from Gulf Arab governments to requests for comment on the issues raised in this article.<\/p>\n
Iran’s threats to Gulf shipping during the war have broken long\u2011standing taboos around the Strait, making its disruption a realistic lever in negotiations for the first time.<\/p>\n
Hormuz’s central role was bluntly articulated by Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, in a post on X on April 8.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not clear how the truce between Washington and Tehran will play out,\u201d Medvedev said. \u201cBut one thing is certain — Iran has tested its nuclear weapons. It \u200cis called the Strait of Hormuz. Its potential is inexhaustible.\u201d<\/p>\n
The remark cast Hormuz as leverage enabling \u2060Iran to raise costs and shape rules without crossing the nuclear threshold.<\/p>\n
HORMUZ IS A ‘GOLDEN ASSET’, SAYS IRANIAN SECURITY SOURCE<\/p>\n
Iranian security officials privately echo that view, describing the Strait not as a contingency but as a long\u2011prepared instrument of deterrence.<\/p>\n
\u201cIran prepared for years for a scenario involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, planning every step,\u201d said a senior Iranian security source. \u201cToday it is one of Iran\u2019s most effective \u2060tools — a form of geographic leverage that serves as a powerful deterrent.\u201d<\/p>\n
The source described the Strait as a \u201cgolden, invaluable asset rooted in Iran\u2019s geography — one the world cannot take away precisely because it flows from Iran\u2019s location.\u201d<\/p>\n
A second Iranian source, close to the Revolutionary Guards, went further, suggesting that a long\u2011standing taboo surrounding the use of Hormuz had now been broken.<\/p>\n
This source described Hormuz as a sword “drawn from its sheath” that the U.S. and regional states could not ignore, providing the region with leverage against external powers.<\/p>\n
What alarms Gulf Arab states most, analysts say, is that while Iranian missiles, drones \u200band \u200bproxies have repeatedly attacked their region, negotiations are increasingly framed almost exclusively around Hormuz because of its global economic impact, marginalising Gulf security concerns.<\/p>\n
At its core, \u200bthe Hormuz dispute is less about who controls the Strait than about who sets the rules \u200cof passage, Gulf sources say, reflecting a broader shift away from fixed international norms toward power\u2011based arrangements.<\/p>\n
That, said Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center, exposes an imbalance between those who define the rules and those who bear the consequences when rules are broken.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat is taking shape today is not a historic settlement,\u201d Al\u2011Ketbi told Reuters, \u201cbut a deliberate engineering of sustainable conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWho’s suffering from missiles and proxies?\u201d she added. “Israel, and specifically the Gulf states. What would be a good deal for us is (addressing) missiles, proxies — and Hormuz. And it seems they don\u2019t care about the missiles or the proxies.\u201d<\/p>\n
CAUTION ON SANCTIONS RELIEF<\/p>\n
Analysts warn such an approach in the talks would not so much resolve tensions as stabilise them at manageable levels, an outcome that may suit Washington and Tehran but risks entrenching instability for Gulf states living under the threat of missiles.<\/p>\n
The U.S.\u2013Israeli war on Iran, which began on February 28, has already left Gulf economies absorbing the fallout, from attacks on energy infrastructure to rising export and insurance costs. Alternative trade export routes raise costs and remain exposed to the \u200csame Iranian missile threats.<\/p>\n
Diplomats say Gulf officials have urged Washington against full sanctions relief, advocating a phased approach to test Iran’s behaviour. They say core \u200bthreats remain unaddressed, notably missiles able to hit Gulf capitals and Iran’s armed proxies used as extensions of the Iranian state.<\/p>\n
Across the Arab Gulf, sentiment toward \u200bWashington now ranges from quiet resentment to growing frustration and confusion over unilateral U.S. decision\u2011making.<\/p>\n
Abdulaziz Sager, Chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf \u200bResearch Center, said dealing with the Iran issue required “a different approach.”<\/p>\n
“The U.S. is part and parcel of regional security…” he added. “But that does not mean acting unilaterally \u2014 going full-fledged without involving the region.”<\/p>\n
While Gulf leaders \u200cbristle at being sidelined, they privately and publicly concede that U.S. military capabilities continue to shape \u200boutcomes through their unmatched superiority.<\/p>\n
UAE academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla said that Gulf Arab \u200bstates had survived the war in large part due to their own defences and sophisticated U.S.-supplied weapons such as the THAAD and Patriot air defence systems.<\/p>\n
RELYING ON SINGLE PROTECTOR HAS LIMITS, ANALYST SAYS<\/p>\n
Yet while America was indispensable, it was fallible, Abdulla said, citing what he called its underestimation of the likelihood of confrontation over Hormuz.<\/p>\n
The U.S. has repeatedly committed to defending its Gulf allies during the war via air and missile defence cooperation, naval security and protection of critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n
One of the \u200bwar’s lessons, Gulf states say, is the limit of reliance on a single external protector, said \u200cMohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai\u2011based research center B\u2019huth.<\/p>\n
Gulf Arab rulers say they have long warned Washington against conflict with Iran, yet they have remained publicly mute since the war broke out. The restraint reflects not just \u200bdiplomacy but uncertainty over a conflict they pay for in economic damage and defence costs but do not control.<\/p>\n
Now, as Washington and Tehran negotiate, Gulf officials argue their exclusion from the talks is no longer a regional issue \u200bbut a global one, given Hormuz\u2019s international importance.<\/p>\n
(Additional reporting by Parisa Hafezi in Dubai; Writing by Samia Nakhoul, Editing by William Maclean)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By Samia Nakhoul DUBAI, April 20 (Reuters)- – A warning by former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has crystallised…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":77433,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[27699,714,34,1933,101,69],"class_list":{"0":"post-77432","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tehran","8":"tag-dmitry-medvedev","9":"tag-gulf-states","10":"tag-iran","11":"tag-iranian-missiles","12":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","13":"tag-tehran"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116446310106938018","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=77432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/77432\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/77433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=77432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=77432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=77432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}