WASHINGTON\u00a0\u2014\u00a0Reporters assigned to travel aboard Air Force Two were told to prepare for an early morning departure on Tuesday for Islamabad until an unexplained delay \u2014 followed by a detour by Vice President JD Vance to the White House \u2014 revealed clues that something was wrong.<\/p>\n
Iranian diplomats had not yet responded to U.S. proposals intended to form the basis of a new round of talks<\/a>. Some were questioning whether they would attend at all. Had he departed as planned, Vance risked a humiliation, spending hours flying to Pakistan only to be stood up on arrival.<\/p>\n A crisis meeting at the White House led President Trump to announce an indefinite extension to a ceasefire deadline that had been set as a pressure tactic. Now, unable to bring the Iranians to heel, that pressure was suddenly off.<\/p>\n It was an early lesson for Vance in the many ways high-stakes diplomacy can veer off-course.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are obvious risks for Vance,\u201d said Chester Crocker, who served as an assistant secretary of State in the Reagan administration, \u201cbeing associated with failure or with a dubious deal.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s aides are clear on the stakes in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program<\/a> and an end to the war. Control of the Strait of Hormuz<\/a> could determine global oil prices for years. Any final deal will shape whether Americans ultimately conclude the fight was worth it \u2014 and could sway the outcome of the midterm elections.<\/p>\n But for America\u2019s lead negotiator, the stakes are also personal.<\/p>\n Vance, a diplomatic novice, has found himself at the helm of an effort rife with political risk that has stymied seasoned diplomats ahead of an anticipated run for president<\/a>.<\/p>\n You’re reading the L.A. Times Politics newsletter <\/p>\n George Skelton and Michael Wilner cover the insights, legislation, players and politics you need to know. In your inbox Monday and Thursday mornings. <\/p>\n By continuing, you agree to our Terms of Service<\/a>, which include arbitration and a class action waiver. You agree that we and our third-party vendors may collect and use your information, including through cookies, pixels and similar technologies, for the purposes set forth in our Privacy Policy<\/a> such as personalizing your experience and ads. <\/p>\n The potential payoff is substantial, placing Vance at the center of an international stage with the power to end a historically unpopular war<\/a>.<\/p>\n But he also may be forced to attach his name to a nuclear deal that provides Tehran access to billions of dollars in sanctions relief, in exchange for limits on its nuclear work that will ultimately expire over time, under conditional monitoring access for international inspectors \u2014 an agreement with striking echoes to a 2015 nuclear deal negotiated by a Democratic administration that was disparaged by his party for over a decade.<\/p>\n Vance is negotiating not on his own terms, but on behalf of a mercurial president whose decisions will ultimately determine whether an agreement can be reached. And the Iranians know that Trump\u2019s days in office are numbered, with Vance, a war skeptic, possibly in line to succeed him.<\/p>\n One U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said the vice president is \u201ca pragmatist,\u201d realistic about the prospects of a deal.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat he has to gain is an image that he can operate effectively on the world stage on a fraught issue. Even if he will give credit to the president, he will be seen as capable of resolving really hard, security-related problems,\u201d said Dennis Ross, a veteran diplomat on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict who served in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton and Obama administrations. \u201cWhat he has to lose is that he was given the role and did not succeed.\u201d<\/p>\n Failure could raise doubts about his statecraft. But even success at the negotiating table could result in an agreement that turns off Republican voters he may need in a 2028 presidential bid.<\/p>\n \u201cVance is put in an impossible position,\u201d said Arne Westad, a professor of history at Yale. <\/p>\n \u201cAny deal with the current Iranian regime will be seen as problematic by many Republicans,\u201d Westad said. \u201cIf he fails to secure a deal, he will be attacked by those who want an end to the U.S. war \u2014 and be seen as ineffective by the president.\u201d<\/p>\n Reputation \u2018on the line\u2019<\/p>\n Trump has publicly acknowledged that Vance, a Marine Corps veteran who has consistently opposed U.S. military engagements in the Middle East, had reservations over launching the Iran war in the first place. \u201cHe was, I would say, philosophically a little bit different than me,\u201d the president told reporters<\/a> in March. \u201cI think he was maybe less enthusiastic.\u201d<\/p>\n For that reason, according to Iranian state media reports, Vance was seen by Tehran as their preferred interlocutor in negotiations. Iranian officials expressed gratitude when, during fevered talks ahead of the initial announcement of a ceasefire, they learned that Steve Witkoff, the president\u2019s roving negotiator, had recommended that the vice president be included in the delegation \u2014 an exceptional gesture that marked Washington\u2019s highest-level engagement with the Islamic Republic in history.<\/p>\n Republican strategists said Vance\u2019s participation is a demonstration that Trump trusts him, an essential trait for any future Republican presidential nominee and aspiring heir to the MAGA movement.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s rare that a vice president has been put in the position of directly negotiating with a foreign adversary,\u201d said Terry Nelson, a longtime Republican media strategist. \u201cWe are engaging a very senior political leader in negotiations with a country that has killed U.S. soldiers and sown chaos in the region. I do think it\u2019s an indication of our resolution and seriousness.\u201d<\/p>\n Whit Ayres, a veteran Republican pollster who has consulted Republican senators and governors for more than three decades, said the vice president\u2019s appointment as lead negotiator \u201celevates Vance as Trump\u2019s heir-apparent even more than before.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWhether that becomes a plus or a minus depends on the outcome of the negotiations,\u201d Ayres added, \u201cand Trump\u2019s ultimate standing with the Republican electorate, both of which are unknowns.\u201d<\/p>\n Talks are currently deadlocked<\/a> over long-standing demands from Tehran that its leadership has held since the early 2000s, when previously undisclosed nuclear activities first triggered international alarm over Iran\u2019s expanding program.<\/p>\n Iran has periodically accepted temporary limits on its nuclear work \u2014 pausing uranium enrichment during talks and, under the 2015 deal, committing to a prolonged cap on enrichment at levels beyond any clear civilian need. But it has always insisted on a \u201cright to enrich\u201d on its own soil, rejecting U.S. attempts to permanently end the program as a foreign attempt to thwart Iran\u2019s scientific progress.<\/p>\n Returning from the first round of ceasefire negotiations, Vance dismissed that position, articulated to him in Islamabad by the speaker of Iran\u2019s Parliament.<\/p>\n \u201cHe said, \u2018We refuse to give up the right to enrichment,\u2019\u201d Vance said. \u201cAnd I thought to myself, you know what, my wife has the right to skydive, but she doesn\u2019t jump out of an airplane, because she and I have an agreement that she\u2019s not going to do that, because I don\u2019t want my wife jumping out of an airplane.\u201d<\/p>\n Echoes of a broken deal<\/p>\n The 2015 deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> \u2014 negotiated by veteran, nonpolitical U.S. diplomats and nuclear scientists over two years of near-constant negotiations \u2014 removed roughly 98% of Iran\u2019s nuclear stockpile from the country, while keeping the country\u2019s nuclear infrastructure largely in place, save for the decommissioning of a heavy-water plutonium reactor that could have provided Tehran with a second path to a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n Under the agreement, Iran consented to limit its use of advanced centrifuges for 10 years, and to restrict uranium enrichment to below weapons-grade levels for 15 years. Inspectors from the U.N.\u2019s International Atomic Energy Agency were granted unprecedented access to monitor the program, though some of these enhanced inspection measures were set to expire after roughly two decades.<\/p>\n In exchange, Iran regained access to tens of billions of dollars of its frozen assets<\/a>, and settled a long-standing legal dispute with Washington that led the Obama administration to transfer $400 million in cash to Tehran. The episode prompted scandal on the political right, which accused Democrats of fueling terrorism through the funding of Iran\u2019s proxy militias.<\/p>\n Now, after just two weeks of negotiations, the Trump administration is already acknowledging that a final deal with Iran would rely on a familiar formula: temporary caps on Iran\u2019s nuclear work in exchange for substantial sanctions relief. Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.<\/p>\n Iran comes to the talks with added leverage today, able and willing to disrupt the flow of 20% of the world\u2019s energy through the Strait of Hormuz. And the United States is negotiating alone, without its former partners in the \u201cP5+1\u201d \u2014 Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany \u2014 at its side.<\/p>\n Anna Kelly, principal deputy press secretary at the White House, told The Times that \u201cafter Democrats like Joe Biden and Barack Hussein Obama weakened our country on the world stage, President Trump has effectively restored American strength with the help of Vice President Vance, who is doing a great job leading the United States in negotiations with Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe president and his entire national security team have an incredible track record in making good deals for our country, and the American people can rest assured that the United States will not enter any agreement that does not put our national security interests first,\u201d Kelly said.<\/p>\n Matt Gorman, a longtime Republican strategist and chief communications officer at Targeted Victory, said the JCPOA was viewed particularly critically because it \u201cwas negotiated in peacetime.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cVance would essentially be ending a war, if successful, and that allows him to make a very different argument,\u201d Gorman said.<\/p>\n The vice president is currently polling as the front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, ahead of Marco Rubio, who \u2014 despite serving as Trump\u2019s secretary of State and national security advisor \u2014 is not directly involved in the Iran talks.<\/p>\n Vance\u2019s role at the negotiating table could help position him as a peacemaker, Crocker noted, distinguishing him from advocates of the war entering the presidential primaries.<\/p>\n But Vance \u201chas been tasked by a president incapable of staying on message, with limited stores of credibility with adversaries as well as allies and a disregard for the complexities of the issues,\u201d said Barbara Bodine, former U.S. ambassador to Yemen. \u201cHis task? A credible end to the war without clear objectives.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAt best, this will be a faux-gilded JCPOA 2.0. Victory will be declared to no applause. On the line is not just Vance\u2019s own reputation, but a demerit in his run for the 2028 presidency,\u201d Bodine added. \u201cThe Iran portfolio was no gift.\u201d<\/p>\n What else you should be reading<\/p>\n The must-read: How a Trump-endorsed Republican could become California\u2019s next governor<\/a>
The deep dive: Palisades reservoir that was empty during fire is dry again. Residents aren\u2019t happy about it<\/a>
The L.A. Times Special: The Flores twins built a drug empire with El Chapo \u2014 then betrayed him<\/a><\/p>\n