\u201cIf Iran suffers any damage, the damage to the countries in the southern Persian Gulf will definitely be greater,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
There\u2019s a limit on how long Iran can bide its time, however.<\/p>\n
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management said Iran \u201cwas expected to\u00a0run out of storage capacity within approximately one month, but it may already be forced to shut in part of its oil production within a couple of weeks.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t \u2018Collapsing financially\u2019?<\/p>\n Trump said Tuesday that Iran was \u201ccollapsing financially<\/a>\u201d under the blockade imposed by the US Navy on April 12, claiming that the country was \u201cstarving for cash.\u201d<\/p>\n Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the blockade meant storage at Iran\u2019s Kharg Island, the main export terminal through which most of the country\u2019s crude is shipped, \u201cwill be full and the fragile Iranian oil wells will be shut in.\u201d<\/p>\n Jamie Ingram, managing editor of Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), told AFP it was likely the timeline for Iran to hit its oil storage limits would be measured in \u201cweeks rather than days.\u201d<\/p>\n He added it was likely that \u201cIran will slightly reduce production before getting to the stage where storage constraints start to bite.\u201d<\/p>\n According to analysis by oil expert Homayoun Falakshahi shared by energy intelligence firm Kpler, Iran\u2019s crude production has already slowed since the start of the war.<\/p>\n Output fell by around 200,000 barrels per day in March to 3.68 million bpd and is expected to drop a further 420,000 bpd in April to about 3.43 million bpd, reflecting \u201cthe broader impact of export disruptions and refining constraints linked to the ongoing conflict,\u201d Falakshahi said.<\/p>\n But Laylaz in Tehran said beyond the psychological effect of the blockade, the \u201creal material effect has been small so far.\u201d<\/p>\n Ingram said Kharg Island \u201cshouldn\u2019t be a particular bottleneck,\u201d for Iran.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is the final storage facility used before oil is exported and Iran can divert crude oil to other facilities rather than straight to Kharg,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \t \u2018Mutually assured disruption\u2019<\/p>\n The MEES expert also said Iran\u2019s dependency on oil exports via Hormuz had \u201cdeepened due to the damage caused by US and Israeli strikes to other sections of the Iranian economy.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cBut Iran has also proven its ability to withstand huge oil-revenue declines during previous rounds of sanctions. I would not underestimate the regime\u2019s resilience in this regard,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n As the initial two-week truce between Iran and the US was set to expire Trump had said Tuesday he would maintain the ceasefire<\/a> to allow more time for peace talks.<\/p>\n Iran said it welcomed the efforts by mediator Pakistan but made no other comment on Trump\u2019s announcement, while vowing not to reopen Hormuz so long as the US blockade remains in place.<\/p>\n \u201cIt will take a long time before such economic pain forces Iran to compromise,\u201d Ingram said, explaining it is \u201cmore likely economic disruption\u2026 pushes China into exerting more pressure on Iran to negotiate.\u201d<\/p>\n \t Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, said \u201cIran\u2019s economy was battered before the war, is contending with added strains caused during it, and now faces the combination of sanctions, seizures and potential strikes.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIran\u2019s leadership has previously shown a high threshold for pain even if the pressure on ordinary Iranians increases. It also likely calculates that its own efforts to subdue traffic through Hormuz act as a sort of mutually assured disruption,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\tA tanker sits anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, April 18, 2026. (AP Photo\/Asghar Besharati)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AP26105759120895-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tBackdropped by ships in the Strait of Hormuz, damage, according to local witnesses caused by several recent airstrikes during the US-Israel military campaign, is seen on a fishing pier in the port of Qeshm island, Iran, April 13, 2026. (AP Photo\/Asghar Besharati)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AP26108447361822-e1776906644420-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tTankers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, April 18, 2026. (AP Photo\/Asghar Besharati)<\/p>\n
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