Before the war, it was clear who had the final say in Iran: The country\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, towered above everyone as the primary religious, political and military authority. After his death, his son was chosen to succeed him. But Mojtaba Khamenei is badly injured and in hiding, which raises a crucial question: Who is really in charge in Iran?<\/p>\n
It turns out, it\u2019s not one person. It\u2019s a group of them. This week, my colleague Farnaz Fassihi has a remarkable story on how the war has empowered the Revolutionary Guards and is turning Iran\u2019s theocracy into something more like a military regime.<\/p>\n
Today I write about what that means for peace talks with the U.S. \u2014 and for Iran itself.<\/p>\n
The rise of Iran\u2019s generals<\/p>\n
On Tuesday, as Vice President JD Vance prepared to fly to Islamabad, Pakistan, for a second round of peace talks, the Iranians pulled out.<\/p>\n
The decision was made by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. They argued that President Trump\u2019s blockade made talks futile. Iran\u2019s president and foreign minister both disagreed. But the views of the Guards prevailed \u2014 as they tend to do in Iran these days.<\/p>\n
When Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled Iran as the supreme leader, he exerted absolute control over all decisions about war, peace and negotiations with the U.S. But reporting by my colleague Farnaz Fassihi shows that his son and successor does not play the same role.<\/p>\n
Mojtaba Khamenei is awaiting a prosthetic for his leg and is struggling to speak after suffering grave injuries in the strikes that killed his father. He has not been seen or heard from publicly since he was appointed in March. Instead, Farnaz explains in her gripping inside story<\/a> of Iran\u2019s new wartime leadership, it\u2019s the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards who effectively run the country.<\/p>\n The Guards have long wielded power in Iran\u2019s military, political and economic affairs. But under the elder Khamenei, they still reported to a religious figure who was also serving as the commander in chief of the armed forces.<\/p>\n Khamenei\u2019s death in U.S.-Israeli strikes on the first day of the war created a vacuum and an opportunity, Farnaz writes. The Guards rallied behind Mojtaba, a longtime ally, and played an instrumental role in elevating him to the position of supreme leader.<\/p>\n They\u2019ve been calling the shots ever since.<\/p>\n The Islamic republic is moving into a new era, Farnaz told me. It\u2019s no longer a regime run by clerics, she said. What we\u2019re seeing now are the early stages of a military regime.<\/p>\n Islamic republic 3.0<\/p>\n Trump likes to say that the war ushered in \u201cregime change,\u201d and that the new leaders are \u201cmuch more reasonable.\u201d In reality, the Islamic republic has not been toppled \u2014 but the regime has evolved. Whether it\u2019s more reasonable probably depends on your perspective.<\/p>\n The Revolutionary Guards were the masterminds of Iran\u2019s military response to the U.S.-Israeli strikes. They came up with the strategy of striking neighboring Gulf countries, and, crucially, to close the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n They were the ones who agreed to a temporary cease-fire with the U.S. and who then tapped Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Parliament and a former Guards general, to lead the talks with Vance in Islamabad. After they pulled the plug on those talks this week, they seized two cargo vessels that had tried to pass through the Strait of Hormuz \u201cwithout the necessary permits.\u201d<\/p>\n They\u2019ve also used their gains in the war as leverage to outmaneuver political rivals at home, Farnaz writes. The president and his cabinet have been sidelined from major decision-making, and the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was marginalized in the peace negotiations, even though he led talks before the war.<\/p>\n The new supreme leader, meanwhile, is only the third since the Iranian revolution in 1979, and his ties to the Guards run deep. He fought in a Guards brigade in the Iraq-Iran war.<\/p>\n \u201cThink of it as the Islamic republic 3.0,\u201d Farnaz said. \u201cReligion is fading. The generals are running the country. And the Supreme Leader is with them.\u201d<\/p>\n Pragmatic repression<\/p>\n The Trump administration started the war with the idea that it might be able to find pragmatic factions within the ranks of the Guards Corps with whom it could cut a deal. There might be something to the pragmatic part.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a possibility that the Guards rule Iran more pragmatically than the clerics,\u201d Farnaz told me. \u201cThey have economic interests, so they may be more prepared to open up the country economically and let foreign investors in as part of a deal.\u201d<\/p>\n But the administration seems to have miscalculated on the factionalism. The new form of collective government led by the generals hasn\u2019t resulted in the kind of disunity at the top that might help the U.S. in the next round of negotiations.<\/p>\n All parties are aligned on keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. lifts its blockade, Farnaz said. They know this is their biggest bargaining chip and won\u2019t give it up before the two sides return to the negotiating table, she said.<\/p>\n The impact of Iran\u2019s evolving leadership will be felt most by the Iranian people.<\/p>\n The social strictures formerly enforced by Iran\u2019s religious leaders have already been dialed back. The demand that women cover their hair is barely enforced even now.<\/p>\n At the same time, the regime is continuing to execute protesters and has set up military checkpoints across the country.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s possible that they\u2019ll be less strict with social issues but more repressive politically,\u201d Farnaz said.<\/p>\n Of course, we\u2019re talking about a country that is still at war. These significant changes have unfolded over the course of less than two months; we still don\u2019t know what kind of Iran will emerge when this is done.<\/p>\n Other developments in the war:<\/p>\n ASK A CORRESPONDENTDo you have questions about the Trump-Xi summit?<\/p>\n Trump and China\u2019s leader, Xi Jinping, are set to meet for a summit in Beijing next month. David Pierson, our correspondent who writes about China and how it engages with the world, will be covering the long-awaited summit.<\/p>\n Tell us what you\u2019d like to know about U.S.-China relations and Chinese foreign policy. We\u2019ll pick a few questions for him to answer in this newsletter. Send us your questions here<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u2018EXTRAORDINARY\u2019 ART OF THE DAY<\/p>\n Take a look at works by the four artists shortlisted for this year\u2019s Turner Prize. The director of the Tate Britain museum in London, who serves as the chair of the prize jury, said yesterday that the four artists had all taken viewers on \u201cextraordinary journeys.\u201d<\/p>\n MORNING READ<\/p>\n In Jakarta, Indonesia\u2019s capital, compact Chinese electric cars weave through the streets. Chinese cosmetics crowd pharmacy shelves. And Chinese hot pot restaurants and milk-tea chains have sprouted in the city\u2019s many, many malls.<\/p>\n Squeezed by cautious consumers at home, Chinese companies are fanning out across the globe. Indonesia, with its teeming young population, is an obvious target. There, brands like the fast-food chain Mixue and the automaker BYD are reshaping how Indonesians see Chinese products. Find out why some see China as \u201cthe future.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n When your manager is a bot<\/p>\n A shop in San Francisco calls itself the world\u2019s first retail boutique run by artificial intelligence. It has human workers, but they are all managed by an A.I. bot named Luna. The experiment was designed to see how far we are from a future where A.I. agents are running everyday companies.<\/p>\n It turns out that future may still be far away. Luna struggled with employee schedules, ordered 1,000 toilet seat covers for the employee bathroom and the business lost roughly $13,000. Read more<\/a>.<\/p>\n Blotkake is a layered spongecake covered with whipped cream and fruit<\/a>, and Norwegians are passionate about it. The dessert is decorated with cloudberries, which are a protected crop in Norway and might be hard to find in some countries, but raspberries are a good substitute.<\/p>\n WHERE IS THIS?BEFORE YOU GO \u2026<\/p>\n When I was a child, the sentence I most dreaded hearing from my parents was \u201clet\u2019s go to the museum.\u201d<\/p>\n Maybe I was a particularly grumpy kid. Or maybe museums in Germany weren\u2019t great for children in those days.<\/p>\n The first time I was truly gripped was when I went to the Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington as a teenager. The staff gave me the passport of a Jewish girl who was killed by the Nazis, and for the duration of the visit, she was my alter ego. The experience was powerful, accessible and raw.<\/p>\n Good museums connect you with history in a visceral way. Last week, I took my 10-year-old son to the Churchill War Rooms in London, the underground site from where Britain\u2019s prime minister masterminded the effort in World War II. My son loved it: the sand bucket where Churchill used to stub out cigars; the world map with thousands of push pins marking ships that had been taken or sunk. And of course, Churchill\u2019s bed (complete with chamber pot).<\/p>\n Suddenly, the stories of his great-grandfather, a British officer who had been captured by the Germans, were less abstract. He\u2019d worn the same uniform as the wax figure of an officer adjusting the pins on the map.<\/p>\n The other thing that brought the past to life was the recorded sound of someone whistling in the corridor (a wink from the curator, who told us Churchill hated whistling \u2014 it was the one thing he shared with Hitler).<\/p>\n The song I have for you today is \u201cSummertime<\/a>\u201d by Ella Fitzgerald, whose career took off a few years before Churchill settled into his wartime bunker. Tomorrow is her birthday.<\/p>\n Have a great weekend! \u2014 Katrin<\/p>\n TIME TO PLAY<\/p>\n Here are today\u2019s Spelling Bee<\/a>, Mini Crossword<\/a>, Wordle<\/a> and Sudoku<\/a>. Find all our games here<\/a>.<\/p>\n