Most food in the US also travels by diesel-powered trucks, adding another pricing pressure. Produce, meat, dairy, and other products need refrigeration, which could sting thanks to higher electricity bills. Then there\u2019s the spiking cost of petrochemicals, which are needed to package pretty much all processed food.<\/p>\n
In short: There\u2019s nowhere to hide from higher prices.<\/p>\n
But unlike the hit to gasoline prices,\u00a0it takes a bit for price shocks at the producer level to trickle down to consumers. Purdue University\u2019s Ken Foster, a professor of agricultural economics, and Bernard Dalheimer, an assistant professor of macroeconomics and trade, wrote in March that if the conflict continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, food-at-home inflation could rise by 3 to 6 percentage points over the next 12 to 18 months<\/a>, calling it \u201ca broad but lagged and sticky shock.\u201d<\/p>\n Read more:\u00a0Iran war sends gas prices skyrocketing, airfare climbing<\/a><\/p>\n Where could that shock be seen first? \u201cIt\u2019s in dairy where the transportation cost share is highest, and we need to cool the dairy all the way through,\u201d Dalheimer said, though it\u2019s difficult to say how exactly that will hit consumers.<\/p>\n Indeed, energy prices are felt more immediately and across more foods, while higher fertilizer prices will burden a smaller group of products and take longer to work their way through to US food prices, Foster and Dalheimer told Yahoo Finance. Many commercial-scale farmers in North America had already purchased much of their fertilizer for 2026 before the conflict with Iran began, and they won\u2019t begin to look at shifting their crop production to account for less or more expensive fertilizer until next year, Foster said.<\/p>\n \u201cIf the conflict persists and starts to affect the prices that farmers pay for the \u201827 crop, then you start to see real food price effects in \u201827,\u201d Foster said.<\/p>\n Jacqui Fatka, a farm supply and biofuels economist in CoBank\u2019s Knowledge Exchange research division, agreed that it will take time for food price increases in the supply chain to show up in US consumers\u2019 budgets.<\/p>\n While farm diesel prices are surging, for example, many farmers \u201clikely secured diesel prices for spring planting between December and February,\u201d she wrote in a report this month<\/a>. But if the conflict drags on, higher prices this summer could snag farmers looking to purchase fuel for the fall, squeezing their margins.<\/p>\n David Ortega, food economist and professor at Michigan State University, also said higher diesel prices \u2014 which were down slightly this week from earlier this month, averaging about $5.40 per gallon<\/a> \u2014\u00a0are worth watching for their impacts on food prices.<\/p>\n Still, \u201cthis is not going to be a shock that\u2019s going to be showing up overnight,\u201d Ortega said. The impacts of higher fertilizer costs will be even slower to unfold.<\/p>\n \u201cA spike in fertilizer prices is certainly an issue for farmers, and a longer-term concern for food production, but not something that is really going to meaningfully drive grocery prices like the rising cost of fuel,\u201d Ortega said.<\/p>\n Emma Ockerman<\/a>\u00a0is a reporter covering the economy and labor for Yahoo Finance. You can reach her at\u00a0emma.ockerman@yahooinc.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n Sign up for the Mind Your Money newsletter<\/a><\/p>\n![\"A](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/82a89f50-4ed9-4ffe-8058-4a77beb4d33f.jpeg\")
A drone view shows a tractor in a field in Saint-Julien-de-Concelles near Nantes, France, April 7, 2025. (Reuters\/Stephane Mahe) \u00b7 REUTERS \/ REUTERS <\/p>\n