Maya\u00a0Ikene\u202fargues that the Iran war is\u00a0not just\u00a0disrupting gas markets, but redrawing Europe’s energy alliances. As Italy and Spain both rushed to buy Algerian gas, the scramble reveals an uncomfortable truth: the green transition is underway, but not fast enough to prevent the next crisis\u00a0<\/p>\n
When the Iran war sent shockwaves through global energy markets in late February 2026, Europe’s response was swift and geographically telling. Gas prices surged by over 50% within weeks. Storage levels, already unusually low for the season, offered little buffer. And within 24 hours of each other, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni<\/a> and Spanish Foreign Minister Jos\u00e9 Manuel Albares<\/a> both landed in Algiers.\u00a0<\/p>\n Whatever their domestic political differences, Rome and Madrid converged on the same address when the gas ran short. That convergence reveals something important about where European energy geopolitics is heading.\u00a0<\/p>\n An asymmetric shock\u00a0<\/p>\n The immediate trigger was the disruption to Qatari liquid natural gas (LNG) flows through the Strait of Hormuz, after\u00a0QatarEnergy\u00a0said it needed to declare force majeure<\/a> on some LNG contracts. For Europe, the consequences were real but unevenly distributed.\u00a0<\/p>\n Italy bore the brunt. Qatari LNG had accounted for roughly 10% of Italy’s annual gas needs<\/a>, a significant exposure for a country that also relies heavily on gas-fired power generation. The macroeconomic consequences are not trivial: rising energy costs could push Italian inflation up by close to a percentage point by year-end. Spain entered the crisis in a\u00a0relatively stronger position, with a more diversified supply and higher reserves than many peers.<\/p>\n Spain and Italy are looking at the same external energy shock through very different structural lenses. Heavily reliant on Middle Eastern gas, Italy is bearing the brunt<\/p>\n This divergence is visible in electricity markets too. So far in 2026, gas has influenced the price of electricity in Spain during only around 15% of hours; in Italy, that figure has been closer to 89%.<\/a> The\u00a0two countries are looking at the same external shock through\u00a0very different structural lenses.\u00a0<\/p>\n Why Algiers was a pivot point\u00a0<\/p>\n What makes this moment geopolitically significant is not the emergency diplomacy itself, but what it reveals about Algeria’s growing centrality to southern European energy security and the layered politics surrounding it.\u00a0<\/p>\n Algeria is already a major supplier to both countries. It delivered around 20 billion cubic metres to Italy in 2024, approximately 30% of Italian consumption, with flows running through the Transmed<\/a> pipeline via Tunisia. For Spain, Algeria is the primary pipeline supplier via the Medgaz<\/a>, the direct submarine link to Almer\u00eda. Both governments went to Algiers seeking more.\u00a0<\/p>\n Meloni’s visit produced commitments to deepen cooperation between Italy\u2019s Eni<\/a> and Algeria\u2019s Sonatrach<\/a>, including in offshore and shale gas exploration. The optics were clear: Italy, facing the steeper cliff, needed fast reassurance of supply. Albares arrived the following day with a slightly different posture. Spain, less exposed, was\u00a0consolidating\u00a0a strategic advantage \u2014 and a diplomatic relationship that had been badly frayed.<\/p>\n The Western Sahara dispute between Spain and Algeria has not been resolved. But energy urgency is quietly reshuffling its diplomatic weight<\/p>\n That diplomatic subtext matters. Spain and Algeria had fallen out sharply in 2022, after Madrid backed a Moroccan autonomy plan for the Western Sahara, a position Algiers views as support for its regional rival. The relationship cooled sharply, and energy ties became politically strained. The current crisis has accelerated a thaw that was already underway. During Albares’ visit, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune confirmed<\/a> he would reactivate the 2002 Treaty of Friendship<\/a> between the two countries, suspended during those years of strain. The Western Sahara dispute has not been resolved. But energy urgency is quietly reshuffling its diplomatic weight.\u00a0<\/p>\n Energy infrastructure and its limits\u00a0<\/p>\n