In the days following the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies assessed that if Trump were to declare victory and the US drew down its forces in the region, Iran would likely view it as a win, one of the sources said.<\/p>\n
\t If Trump instead said the US had won but maintained a heavy troop presence, Iran would likely see it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that would necessarily lead to the end of the war, the source said.<\/p>\n \u201cCIA is not familiar with the intelligence community\u2019s reported assessment,\u201d Liz Lyons, director of the agency\u2019s office of public affairs, said in a statement after the publication of this story. The CIA declined to answer Reuters\u2019 specific questions about its current work on Iran.<\/p>\n The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.<\/p>\n White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US is still engaging with the Iranians on negotiations and would \u201cnot be rushed into making a bad deal.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe president will only enter into an agreement that puts US national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n Though Iran, whose leaders are sworn to destroy Israel, denies seeking nuclear arms, it has enriched uranium to levels with no peaceful application and obstructed international oversight of nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n High political costs<\/p>\n Opinion polls show the war is overwhelmingly unpopular with Americans. Only 26 percent of respondents in a Reuters\/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign has been worth the costs, and only 25% said it has made the US safer.<\/p>\n Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days have described Trump as keenly aware of the political price being paid by him and his party.<\/p>\n Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, a flurry of diplomacy has failed to fully open the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway.<\/p>\n \t Choking off the shipping that carries about 20% of the world\u2019s crude oil has driven up energy costs worldwide and the price at US gasoline pumps. Iran\u2019s ability to disrupt commerce gives it powerful leverage against the United States and its allies.<\/p>\n A decision to scale back the US military presence in the region, paired with a mutual lifting of the blockade, would eventually bring down gasoline prices.<\/p>\n So far, however, the two sides appear far from any agreement.<\/p>\n Last weekend, Trump canceled a trip by his special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner to meet Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday that it would take \u201ctoo much time\u201d and that if Iran wanted to talk, \u201call they had to do was call.\u201d<\/p>\n Military options remain on table<\/p>\n Various military options remain formally on the table, with renewed airstrikes on Iran\u2019s military and political leaders among them, according to a separate person familiar with administration dynamics.<\/p>\n \t One of the US officials and another person familiar with the discussions said, however, that the most ambitious of those options \u2014 such as a ground invasion of the Iranian mainland \u2014 appears less likely than it did a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n A White House official described the domestic pressure on the president to wrap up the war as \u201cenormous.\u201d<\/p>\n One of the sources said Iran has taken advantage of the ongoing ceasefire to dig out launchers, munitions, drones, and other material that had been buried by US and Israeli bombing in the opening weeks of the conflict.<\/p>\n As a result, the tactical costs of resuming full-scale war are arguably higher now than they were in the initial days of the ceasefire, which began on April 8.<\/p>\n The ceasefire declared by Trump came with core declared goals of the war unfulfilled, including ensuring that Iran does not attain nuclear weapons, destroying its missile program, and creating the conditions for the Iranian public to overthrow the regime.<\/p>\n Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.<\/p>\n
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\n\t\tAn Iranian man walks past symbolic belongings laid on the ground at Valiasr Square in Tehran on April 24, 2026, in tribute to the schoolgirls in Minab killed in an airstrike. A large billboard depicting Iran\u2019s slain supreme leader Ali Khamenei is visible in the background. (AFP)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/hormuz-1-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tThe sun rising behind tankers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Qeshm Island, Iran, April 18, 2026. (Asghar Besharati\/AP)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/1777450279_461_AP26115147942895-e1777095496515-640x400.jpg\")
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\n\t\tA police officer walks past posters of US and Iran talks near a possible venue in Islamabad, Pakistan, April 25, 2026. (AP Photo\/Anjum Naveed)<\/p>\n
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