{"id":91457,"date":"2026-04-30T17:43:16","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T17:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/91457\/"},"modified":"2026-04-30T17:43:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T17:43:16","slug":"analysis-why-irans-oil-industry-is-increasingly-threatened-by-us-blockade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/91457\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Why Iran\u2019s oil industry is increasingly threatened by US blockade"},"content":{"rendered":"

By JON GAMBRELL<\/p>\n

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) \u2014 Even as Iran squeezes world energy supplies with its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, its own oil industry is increasingly being threatened by an American blockade.<\/p>\n

With no way to export the oil it is pumping out and diminishing room to store it at home, Iran<\/a> may be forced to dramatically reduce or cease production from some of its wells, perhaps beginning in as little as two weeks, experts say.<\/p>\n

The situation likely isn\u2019t as dire as U.S. President Donald Trump recently described, colorfully suggesting pipelines could start exploding within days. But once shut down, production from the aging wells may not be restarted so easily, if at all, undermining Iran\u2019s future oil output. Iran appears to have begun dialing back production already, analysts say, to avert outright shutdowns.<\/p>\n

The pressure is building as the U.S. Treasury Department ratchets up sanctions<\/a> on Iranian oil shipments already at sea. The U.S. military has seized at least two tankers off Asia believed to be carrying Iranian oil.<\/p>\n

With its oil trade constrained, Iran is seeing less hard currency<\/a> flow back into an economy mauled by weeks of war<\/a>, months of unrest and decades of international sanctions. But with fewer tankers shipping Iranian oil, the effects of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown<\/a> are only being magnified, leading to shortages of jet fuel and rising gasoline<\/a> prices around the world<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s leaders \u201care really resisting\u201d shutting down oil wells because of how painful that would be long-term, said Miad Maleki, a former sanctions expert at the U.S. Treasury who is now a senior fellow at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey\u2019ve been under sanctions, they\u2019ve been isolated for 47 years now. Those oil wells are not maintained well. Their machinery is not maintained well,\u201d Maleki said. Once shut off, he added, the wells won\u2019t easily \u201csnap back after a few months.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"FILE<\/p>\n

FILE \u2013 In this photo released by Tasnim News Agency, a Revolutionary Guard Navy (IRGC) speedboat approaches the cargo ship Epaminondas during what state media described as the seizure of one of two vessels accused of violations in the Strait of Hormuz, April 21, 2026. (Meysam Mirzadeh\/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)\n<\/p>\n

\"Tankers<\/p>\n

Tankers and bulk carriers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, Saturday, April 18, 2026. (AP Photo)\n<\/p>\n

\"A<\/p>\n

A cargo ship sails in the Persian Gulf toward the Strait of Hormuz, Wednesday, April 22, 2026. (AP Photo)\n<\/p>\n

\"In<\/p>\n

In this photo released by Tasnim News Agency, Revolutionary Guard Navy (IRGC) armed men climb aboard the cargo ship MSC Francesca during what state media described as the seizure of one of two vessels accused of violations in the Strait of Hormuz, April 21, 2026. (Meysam Mirzadeh\/Tasnim News Agency via AP)\n<\/p>\n

Show Caption<\/p>\n

1 of 4<\/p>\n

FILE \u2013 In this photo released by Tasnim News Agency, a Revolutionary Guard Navy (IRGC) speedboat approaches the cargo ship Epaminondas during what state media described as the seizure of one of two vessels accused of violations in the Strait of Hormuz, April 21, 2026. (Meysam Mirzadeh\/Tasnim News Agency via AP, File)\n<\/p>\n

Expand<\/a>
\nThe squeeze on Iran intensifies<\/p>\n

Iran had been pumping over 3 million barrels of crude oil a day before the war, with a little more than half going toward its domestic market. But since the American blockade began on April 13, ships have been filled with oil and unable to get out.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt looks like there\u2019s been a significant slowdown in production,\u201d said Antoine Halff, the co-founder and chief analyst at Kayrros, an environmental intelligence company that tracks emissions and energy supply chains. He pointed to signs that storage is not filling as fast as usual at Kharg Island, Iran\u2019s main oil export terminal in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

Iran is likely storing some of its oil in tankers positioned around Kharg Island, Halff noted.<\/p>\n

Kpler, a firm monitoring commodities markets, said it believes Iran has enough capacity left to store about two weeks worth of oil production, even after reducing output.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the immediate revenue impact is limited, operational constraints are now forcing production cuts and setting up a delayed but significant financial squeeze,\u201d wrote Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at Kpler.<\/p>\n

Wood Mackenzie, another oil analysis firm, estimates Iran will run out of storage capacity in about three weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf the blockade persists, cuts become inevitable,\u201d wrote Alexandre Araman of Wood Mackenzie. Shutdowns of more than a month \u201crisk long-term damage\u201d to Iran\u2019s oil reservoirs, he wrote, adding that recovering older fields \u201cremains uncertain.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s oil industry long a shaky lifeline<\/p>\n

From the moment it first struck oil in 1908, Iran\u2019s oil industry has been entangled in the region\u2019s politics. A move to nationalize Iran\u2019s oil fields and wrest control from the British sparked the CIA-backed 1953 coup that cemented Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi\u2019s rule. That also lit a long fuse to Iran\u2019s 1979 Islamic Revolution that toppled the shah. During the revolution, oil workers went on strike and brought production down from 6 million barrels a day to around 1.5 million.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s oil industry never recovered and faced decades of international sanctions, during which its infrastructure aged and faltered.<\/p>\n

In his first term, Trump exerted a \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign, hiking sanctions to severely cut Iran\u2019s oil exports. Forced to store oil in tankers at sea, the Iranian government lost tens of billions of dollars in revenues. Still, the pressure failed to push Tehran into reaching a nuclear deal with the U.S.<\/p>\n

Now Iran faces a combination of hiked sanctions and the blockade. Trump on Tuesday claimed that Iran was \u201cin a \u2018State of Collapse.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent piled on, writing on X, \u201cIran\u2019s creaking oil industry is starting to shut in production thanks to the U.S. BLOCKADE. Pumping will soon collapse. GASOLINE SHORTAGES IN IRAN NEXT!\u201d<\/p>\n

There have been no immediate signs of any gasoline shortages in Iran. However, Iran does seem to be acknowledging some of the pain indirectly.<\/p>\n

A segment on state TV, which is run by hard-liners, included journalists discussing the possibility of an oil storage crisis. One noted that if empty tankers get blocked from returning to Iran, \u201cwe won\u2019t be able to export.\u201d Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad on Monday praised oil terminal staff for their \u201ccontinuous perseverance.\u201d<\/p>\n

Maleki, the analyst from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that if the blockade continues and production slows further or halts, oil workers could potentially lose their jobs \u2014 which could cause new unrest.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 1979 when the oil industry was disrupted, in the 1980s war with Iraq \u2026 you can go and look at to see how effective they were in really pressuring the regime,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s really going to affect some of the most strategic provinces in Iran and the most strategic industry.\u201d<\/p>\n

EDITOR\u2019S NOTE \u2014 Jon Gambrell<\/a>, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By JON GAMBRELL DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) \u2014 Even as Iran squeezes world energy supplies with its…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":91458,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[102,34,1827,101,24317],"class_list":{"0":"post-91457","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-strait-of-hormuz","8":"tag-hormuz","9":"tag-iran","10":"tag-oil-industry","11":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","12":"tag-us-blockade"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116494899922207209","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91457\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91458"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}