(Bloomberg) — The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is creating an economic split among oil exporters in the Persian Gulf, with Saudi Arabia and Oman set for a windfall and others including the United Arab Emirates seeing a drop in petrodollar income.<\/p>\n
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Saudi Arabia is gaining a revenue edge over most of its Gulf Arab neighbors as it is able to divert the bulk of crude exports to the Red Sea. Higher prices more than compensated for lost shipments through the strait, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The UAE, by contrast, is likely suffering a steep fall in oil income, as its own detoured barrels only partially mitigate the impact from Hormuz\u2019s closure.<\/p>\n
Goldman estimates weekly oil revenue rose 10% relative to pre-war levels in Saudi Arabia and fell around 25% in the UAE, Middle East and North Africa analyst Farouk Soussa wrote in a note published last week.<\/p>\n
The divergence may feed into the intensifying rivalry between the Middle East\u2019s two biggest economies, which was at the heart of UAE\u2019s shock decision to quit OPEC this week. Free from quotas imposed by the Saudi-dominated group of oil producing nations, the UAE can \u2014 once the Hormuz strait reopens \u2014 pump more crude and monetize its reserves before demand tapers off with the energy transition.<\/p>\n
The overall financial implications of the war on one of the world\u2019s most important energy-exporting regions are severe. The six Gulf Cooperation Council members are losing about $700 million in oil revenue every day the strait is closed, Goldman said in a separate note on March 20.<\/p>\n
Since the war began in late February, Riyadh has rerouted around 4 million barrels of oil a day to its East-West pipeline, which connects fields to the port of Yanbu. The UAE ramped up oil shipments through its own pipeline that empties beyond Hormuz. It loaded about 2 million barrels each day in March, still only half what it was exporting in February.<\/p>\n
Oman, which has its oil ports outside of the strait, hasn\u2019t had to cut exports and has seen its revenue surge by 80% since the conflict erupted, Goldman estimates. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iraq are in the worst positions. Their income from oil and natural gas has cratered as they have little way of bypassing Hormuz.<\/p>\n
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\u201cThe war is splitting the region into winners and losers,\u201d according to Ziad Daoud, chief emerging markets economist for Bloomberg Economics.<\/p>\n
MIDEAST INSIGHT: Hormuz Crisis Splits Oil Winners and Losers<\/p>\n
The difference in oil revenue is reflected in the performance of GCC countries\u2019 stocks. Omani and Saudi equities are easily outperforming those of the other four states.<\/p>\n
Crude prices have jumped since the start of the Iran war, which led to an almost complete shutdown of the waterway through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil and liquefied natural gas flows previously transited. Global benchmark Brent traded above $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest since the aftermath of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It\u2019s eased to $108 but is still up almost 80% in 2026.<\/p>\n
Oil revenues only partially reflect the fallout from war. Iran\u2019s airstrikes across the Gulf states, in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, damaged their infrastructure and hit their non-oil economies as tourists and other visitors stayed away. Goldman estimates the UAE\u2019s annualized fiscal surplus of 6% of gross domestic product before the war has almost entirely been erased and sees only a marginal improvement of 1 percentage point in Saudi Arabia\u2019s deficit.<\/p>\n
The war has led to Oman\u2019s fiscal balance swinging from a deficit of 7% of GDP to a surplus of 8%, according to Soussa. Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait now have deficits of 17%, 20% and 40% respectively, he estimates.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan Chase & Co. sees the GCC\u2019s fiscal balance having deteriorated by around 3.6% of GDP during the war.<\/p>\n
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar can weather the impact of the conflict using their large foreign reserves and wealth funds, Bloomberg\u2019s Daoud said. Bahrain and Iraq don\u2019t have that luxury and depend heavily on oil revenues for basic fiscal stability.<\/p>\n
Aramco Windfall<\/p>\n
If the blockade is lifted in the short term, Goldman\u2019s Soussa notes, some of the damage to public finances may be reversed.<\/p>\n
Saudi Aramco\u2019s first-quarter corporate results, due May 10, may offer more evidence of the kingdom\u2019s resilience.<\/p>\n
The oil giant is expected to post its highest profit since the third quarter of 2023, according to the Bloomberg consensus of analyst estimates.<\/p>\n
Net income is forecast to hit $32 billion in the period, with higher prices and seasonally lower costs offsetting the drop in production, Citigroup Inc. analysts wrote.<\/p>\n
Debt market<\/p>\n
Since the war began, sovereign and corporate borrowers in Qatar and Kuwait, typically infrequent issuers in the global bond market, raised billions of dollars through private sales, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. Bahrain turned to the UAE for a currency swap of $5.4 billion.<\/p>\n
UAE issuers, including Abu Dhabi, also tapped markets, though less heavily than in the same period a year earlier. Saudi Arabia, usually the region\u2019s biggest borrower, scaled back issuances.<\/p>\n
For the GCC as a whole, Goldman estimates the net government borrowing requirement has doubled from around $1.7 billion a week to $3.5 billion. \u201cWe think this will prompt authorities to continue to seek to optimize funding sources as long as the disruption lasts,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
(Adds commentary in seventh paragraph)<\/p>\n
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\u00a92026 Bloomberg L.P.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Bloomberg) — The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is creating an economic split among oil exporters in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":94263,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[1824,33242,964,33243,17047,39,50,101,272],"class_list":{"0":"post-94262","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-persian-gulf","8":"tag-bloomberg","9":"tag-farouk-soussa","10":"tag-goldman-sachs-group-inc","11":"tag-oil-income","12":"tag-oil-revenue","13":"tag-persian-gulf","14":"tag-saudi-arabia","15":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","16":"tag-united-arab-emirates"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116505233534371159","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94262","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94262"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94262\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94263"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94262"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94262"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94262"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}