{"id":94893,"date":"2026-05-02T23:58:11","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T23:58:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/94893\/"},"modified":"2026-05-02T23:58:11","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T23:58:11","slug":"hormuz-deadlock-persists-as-trump-faces-war-powers-deadline-at-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/94893\/","title":{"rendered":"Hormuz Deadlock Persists as Trump Faces War-Powers Deadline at Home"},"content":{"rendered":"

Two months after the Iran war began, the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted for tanker traffic while U.S. President Donald Trump faces a key legal deadline at home under the 1973 War Powers Resolution<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As of early Friday, May 1, the deadlock at the world\u2019s most vital oil chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, doesn\u2019t appear close to being resolved. The U.S. is doubling down<\/a> on the naval blockade outside the Strait aimed at stopping Iranian oil exports. But Iran controls most vessel movements through the lane and is increasingly defiant that it wouldn\u2019t give up control over the passage that used to handle a fifth of daily global oil and LNG flows before the war.<\/p>\n

In a message on Thursday, Iran\u2019s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei \u2013 who hasn\u2019t been filmed or recorded since he was elected in early March after his predecessor, and father, was killed \u2013 suggested<\/a> that the only place of the U.S. in the Persian Gulf is \u201cat the bottom of its waters.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, under the 1973 War Powers Resolution, President Trump is required to terminate any use of U.S. Armed Forces within 60 days after submitting a report of a war to Congress if Congress hasn\u2019t authorized the military action\u2014and it hasn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The 60-day deadline expires on Friday, and could be extended by the President by no more than 30 days.<\/p>\n

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth argued<\/a> on Thursday the U.S.-Iran ceasefire \u201chas stopped the clock\u201d on that deadline count, while House Speaker, Republican Mike Johnson, said<\/a>, \u201cWe are not at war.\u201d<\/p>\n

Regardless of how the Trump Administration and Congress handle this legal provision, there appears to be no resolution in sight to the deadlock at the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to the loss of\u00a0hundreds of millions of barrels<\/a>\u00a0of crude since the war began.<\/p>\n

Related: Repsol Holds Off on U.S. Listing for Upstream Unit Despite 2026 Plans<\/a><\/p>\n

Losses are growing by the hour, and oil market participants may have finally caught up on the huge loss of supply that won\u2019t be returning for months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened unconditionally today.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn round numbers, the 1 billion [barrels] is baked in now because we have probably lost 600 million to 700 million at this stage, but by the time things get moving again, if they get moving again, it takes time to bring all back,\u201d Russell Hardy, CEO at the world\u2019s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group,\u00a0said<\/a>\u00a0at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne last week.<\/p>\n

The disrupted energy flows triggered a global race for alternative supply, and sent energy prices soaring with the prospect of slowing global economic growth and even leading to a global recession if the world\u2019s most critical oil chokepoint stays mostly inaccessible for another three months. In the U.S., gasoline prices hit their highest level since July 2022, the previous instance in which oil prices<\/a> spiked to above $100 per barrel after Russia invaded Ukraine.<\/p>\n

The U.S. blockade outside Hormuz has been partially effective, according to vessel-tracking and satellite imagery data.<\/p>\n

\u201cIranian export activity remains constrained but adaptive. Kharg Island continues to load, but with queue pressure and dark tanker drift,\u201d marine intelligence firm Windward said in a report<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n

Over the past week, traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has become more active, but the wider system is more opaque, Windward noted.<\/p>\n

\u201cVisible transit is increasing, while concealed activity, enforcement reach, and regional operating risk continue to grow.\u201d<\/p>\n

With no resolution to the Hormuz deadlock in sight, oil prices would continue to rise as the global system is exhausting the buffers that have cushioned the blow so far.<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the magnitude of the production loss and the unavailability of spare capacity, the buffers in the system are insufficient to replace the volumes of lost barrels, and if the disruption persists for longer, the existing buffers will become less effective,\u201d Bassam Fattouh, director at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) and OIES Head of Oil Research, Andreas Economou, wrote in a paper<\/a> this week.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsequently, prices will have to play a central role in the adjustment through their impact on production and consumption.\u201d<\/p>\n

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com<\/p>\n

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com<\/p>\n

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