{"id":97869,"date":"2026-05-04T21:35:05","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:35:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/97869\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T21:35:05","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:35:05","slug":"project-freedom-unlikely-to-pay-off-in-strait-of-hormuz-right-away-analysts-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/97869\/","title":{"rendered":"Project Freedom unlikely to pay off in Strait of Hormuz right away, analysts say"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON \u2014 As the US unfurls a multi-layered plan to help commercial vessels safely transit the Strait of Hormuz<\/a>, analysts tell Breaking Defense it will likely take time for commercial shipping companies to feel safe enough to move through the waters \u2014 with US forces carrying a greater risk in the interim.<\/p>\n

The US officially launched \u201cProject Freedom<\/a>\u201d on Sunday, with the stated goal of helping commercial vessels transit safely<\/a> though the strait. On a call with reporters today, US Central Command head Adm. Brad Cooper described the effort as \u201cinherently a defensive operation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cWe are employing US ballistic missile defense-capable destroyers, over 100 land and sea based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms \u2014 meaning under the sea, on the sea and from the air \u2014 and then 15,000 service members to extend this defensive umbrella across the Strait of Hormuz to protect our forces and \u2026 defend commercial shipping,\u201d he added, noting that the US has hit six Iranian small boats so far.<\/p>\n

As of noon Eastern Monday, two US-flagged merchant vessels have transited through those waters, and Cooper said more may be going through in the coming hours and days.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Strait of Hormuz is a key waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman used for shipping, including nearly a quarter of the world\u2019s maritime oil trade. But commercial shipping there ground to a halt due to concerns about Iranian mines and aerial weapons after the US and Israel began military operations inside Iran<\/a> in late February. Subsequently, the US and Iran both announced competing blockades, with Cooper stating today the US is still enforcing its blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
The project, Cooper explained, is not providing vessels with a maritime escort. Instead, the four-star admiral explained that the US mapped out a narrow path that should be safe for commercial vessels to follow, and is then using maritime and aviation assets like AH-64 Apache and MH-60 Jayhawk helicopters, along with a host of fighters including F-15s, F-16s, F-35s and the EA-18G Growler, to provide cover to passing ships.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a much better defensive arrangement in this process where we have multiple layers that include ships, helicopters, aircraft, airborne early warning [and] electronic warfare,\u201d Cooper added. \u201cWe have a much broader defensive package than you would have if you request [an escort]. I feel good about that and it was proven just in the last couple of hours.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] has launched multiple cruise missiles, drones and small boats [at] ships we are protecting,\u201d he said separately, though he declined to detail how many vessels have been targeted. \u201cWe have defeated each and every one of those threats through the clinical application of defensive munitions.\u201d<\/p>\n

As for the status of the ceasefire between the US-Iran, he said he wouldn\u2019t go into details of whether it\u2019s over or not<\/a>, despite confirming that Iran had fired on ships and the US had fired on Iranian vessels.<\/p>\n

Greater Risk For US Forces?<\/p>\n

Multiple experts told Breaking Defense that while Project Freedom is getting a full-court press from the administration, it is unlikely to open the floodgates and restore mass transit in the region in the short term.<\/p>\n

Mick Mulroy, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, estimated that there are roughly 20,000 commercial captains and crew stuck on ships right now due to the dueling blockades in the international waterway, leading to humanitarian crises.\u00a0However, it may take time, he added, to see whether ships will trust their ability to get through without being attacked, and, \u201cperhaps more importantly\u201d if the insurance companies will back it.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf not, this effort will not have the impact we hoped,\u201d Mulroy added.<\/p>\n

Michael O\u2019Hanlon, Brookings Institution\u2019s director of research for foreign policy, also added that \u201cIran has a decent chance to score hits with drones, missiles, and\/or mines if ships actually do try to traverse the Strait; that\u2019s the whole reason why we\u2019ve been doing the embargo further out to sea, in more open waters.\u201d <\/p>\n

Everyone, he added, will likely be \u201cnervous at first, though that could ease with time \u2014 or not, depending on how safe and successful the first attempted transits prove to be.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American Strategy at The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), also said that Project Freedom won\u2019t alleviate concerns from commercial shippers immediately, claiming that they are \u201crisk averse\u201d because even a single mine or drone strike could lead to crew casualties and take ships offline for months \u2014 even if the ship isn\u2019t sunk.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThis puts a heavy burden of proof on the US to show that the Strait is safe to transit, but that hasn\u2019t happened yet,\u201d Ruhe said. \u201cThe US hasn\u2019t made clear how it plans to reopen the Strait, which gives Iran plenty of leeway to keep deterring any shippers who might think of risking the transit.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic & International Studies\u2019 defense and security department, said that since the US government has said it is providing ships with insurance, US-flagged ships might initiate the transit. But other shippers may not take the risk themselves due to the massive uncertainty.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey will want to see several convoys transit successfully and undamaged before they are willing to make a move,\u201d Cancian said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Cancian also cautioned that if the US does start running escort ships, it could lead to more casualties than previously seen during Operation Epic Fury<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cRunning convoys through the Strait increases the possibility of renewed fighting,\u201d Cancian said. \u201cConvoy battles could produce heavier casualties than seen previously because so many ships would be exposed to damage from Iranian weapons. Iranian anti-ship missiles and mines have very large warheads, about 1,000 lbs, and can therefore cause tremendous damage.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Ruhe said that the Iranian regime has incentive to fight because it has \u201cstaked so much on controlling the Strait,\u201d and therefore \u201ccan\u2019t afford to let the US cross this redline unhindered.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cUnlike the US blockade, which operates beyond the range of Iran\u2019s anti-ship capabilities, this new operation puts US forces right up against the IRGC Navy,\u201d Ruhe said. \u201cThough it\u2019s been hit hard, the IRGC Navy is built for exactly this kind of fight, and it retains enough fast attack craft, naval mines, missiles and drones, and tactical air defenses to credibly threaten U.S. forces.\u201d<\/p>\n

More broadly, the operation will only extend the wear and tear on US military assets in the region, potentially impacting readiness in the future, according to several experts.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Institute think tank\u2019s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, said that the both the aircraft carriers Ford and Lincoln have faced deployment extensions and that they could enter their maintenance periods late \u2014 leading to \u201ccascading delays\u201d at both Norfolk Naval Shipyard in Virginia and Puget Sound Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility in Washington.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Likewise, the destroyers from their respective strike groups have also faced extensions and will likely cause delays at ship repair yards, he said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cMoreover, the wear and tear of the deployment will increase the workload at repair facilities, which will further delay repairs,\u201d Clark said. \u201cThe end result will be the Navy will have difficulty getting more than 2 CSGs (carrier strike groups) deployed at a time in 2027 and 2028.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Dan Shapiro, who previously served as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and the US ambassador to Israel, also said that ongoing operations in the Middle East like Project Freedom would augment the impact of wear and tear<\/a> on the ships since the launch of Operation Epic Fury. Likewise, it would have repercussions tied to deferred maintenance and future deployment schedules, he said.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat will pose challenges to the Navy\u2019s ability to fulfill other missions, including deterring China in the IndoPacific,\u201d Shapiro said. \u201cIt\u2019s quite noteworthy that for over two months, we have had no aircraft carrier operating in the IndoPacific, which indicates the kinds of tough choices leaders and commanders already face, and will undoubtedly face even more after this war concludes.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"WASHINGTON \u2014 As the US unfurls a multi-layered plan to help commercial vessels safely transit the Strait of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97870,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[17078,1726,34239,141,7869,24061,2092,102,34,37,34240,49,1488,1403,33820,101],"class_list":{"0":"post-97869","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-strait-of-hormuz","8":"tag-adm-brad-cooper","9":"tag-air-force","10":"tag-apache","11":"tag-centcom","12":"tag-commercial-ships","13":"tag-destroyer","14":"tag-f-35","15":"tag-hormuz","16":"tag-iran","17":"tag-israel","18":"tag-mh-60-jayhawk","19":"tag-middle-east","20":"tag-navy","21":"tag-pentagon","22":"tag-project-freedom","23":"tag-strait-of-hormuz"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/pubeurope.com\/@iran\/116518461362549138","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97869"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97869\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97870"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}