{"id":98068,"date":"2026-05-05T01:12:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T01:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/98068\/"},"modified":"2026-05-05T01:12:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T01:12:15","slug":"iran-no-further-to-nuclear-weapon-than-it-was-before-war-us-intel-agencies-assess","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/iran\/98068\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran no further to nuclear weapon than it was before war, US intel agencies assess"},"content":{"rendered":"

WASHINGTON (Reuters) \u2013 US intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a US-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year, according to three sources familiar with the matter.<\/p>\n

The assessments of Tehran\u2019s nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that US President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n

The latest US and Israeli attacks that began on February 28 have focused on conventional military targets, but Israel has hit a number of significant nuclear facilities.<\/p>\n

The unchanged timeline suggests that significantly impeding Tehran\u2019s nuclear program may require destroying or removing Iran\u2019s remaining stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or HEU.<\/p>\n

The war has stalled since the US and Iran agreed to a truce on April 7. Tensions remain high as both sides appear deeply divided, and as Iran has choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, blocking some 20 percent of world oil supplies and igniting a global energy crisis.<\/p>\n

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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has said publicly that the US aims to ensure Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon via ongoing negotiations with Tehran.<\/p>\n

\t\"\"<\/a>
\n\t\tThis handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows Iran\u2019s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the city of Qom, after US strikes on the site. (Satellite image \u00a92025 Maxar Technologies \/ AFP)<\/p>\n

US intelligence agencies had concluded prior to June\u2019s 12-day war that Iran likely could produce enough bomb-grade uranium for a weapon and build a bomb in around three to six months, said two of the sources, all of whom requested anonymity to discuss US intelligence.<\/p>\n

Following the June strikes by the US that hit the Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear complexes, US intelligence estimates pushed that timeline back to about nine months to a year, said the two sources and a person familiar with the assessments.<\/p>\n

The attacks destroyed or badly damaged the three enrichment plants known to have been operating at the time. But the UN nuclear watchdog has been unable to verify the whereabouts of some 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tThe flag of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) flies during a special session of an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna, Austria, March 2, 2026. (AP\/Heinz-Peter Bader)<\/p>\n

It believes that about half was stored in an underground tunnel complex at the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center, but it has been unable to confirm that since inspections were suspended.<\/p>\n

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assesses that the total HEU stockpile would be enough for 10 bombs if further enriched.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile Operation Midnight Hammer obliterated Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities, Operation Epic Fury built on this success by decimating Iran\u2019s defense industrial base that they once leveraged as a protective shield around their pursuit of a nuclear weapon,\u201d said White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, referring to the June operation and the latest war that began in February.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tIn this photo released on November 2, 2025, by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, President Masoud Pezeshkian visits the country\u2019s nuclear facilities during his tour to the Atomic Energy Organization in Tehran, Iran. (Atomic Energy Organization of Iran via AP)<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Trump has long been clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon \u2013 and he does not bluff.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did not respond to a request for comment.<\/p>\n

Stopping Tehran\u2019s nuclear program a key US goal<\/p>\n

US officials, including Trump, repeatedly cite the need to eliminate Iran\u2019s nuclear program as a key objective of the war.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation,\u2069\u201d Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on March 2.<\/p>\n

President Trump will not get the United States into a years-long conflict with no clear objective. <\/p>\n

Iran can never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. That is the goal of this operation and President Trump will see it through to completion.\u2069 pic.twitter.com\/Spi2Mcke6F<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 JD Vance (@JDVance) March 3, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

The unchanging estimate for how long it would take Iran to build such a weapon reflects in part the focus of the latest US and Israeli military campaign, the sources said.\n<\/p>\n

While Israel has struck nuclear-related targets, including a uranium-processing facility in late March, US attacks have concentrated on conventional military capabilities, Iran\u2019s leadership and its military-industrial base.<\/p>\n

The unchanged estimates may also stem from a lack of major nuclear targets that can be readily and safely destroyed following June\u2019s military action, according to some analysts.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tDirector of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testifies during the Senate Committee on Intelligence hearings to examine worldwide threats on Capitol Hill, March 18, 2026, in Washington. (AP\/Jose Luis Magana)<\/p>\n

Eric Brewer, a former senior US intelligence analyst who led assessments of Iran\u2019s nuclear program, said it was not surprising that the assessments have not changed because recent US strikes have not prioritized nuclear-related targets.<\/p>\n

\u201cIran still possesses all of its nuclear material, as far as we know,\u201d said Brewer, vice president of the nuclear materials study program at the Nuclear Threat Initiative arms control think tank. \u201cThat material is probably located in deeply buried underground sites where US munitions can\u2019t penetrate.\u201d<\/p>\n

In recent weeks, US officials have contemplated dangerous operations that would significantly impede Iran\u2019s nuclear efforts. Those options include ground raids to retrieve the HEU believed to be stored in the tunnel complex at the Isfahan site.<\/p>\n

Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Tehran halted a warhead development effort in 2003, though some experts and Israel contend that it secretly preserved key parts of the program.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tThis handout satellite picture, provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (Satellite image \u00a92025 Maxar Technologies \/ AFP<\/p>\n

Possible impact from killing of scientist<\/p>\n

Precisely evaluating Iran\u2019s nuclear capacity is difficult, even for the world\u2019s leading intelligence services, experts say.<\/p>\n

Several US intelligence agencies have independently studied Iran\u2019s nuclear program, and while the sources described a broad consensus regarding Iran\u2019s capacity to build a nuclear weapon, outlying assessments do occur.<\/p>\n

It is possible that Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions have been set back further than the intelligence estimates suggest.<\/p>\n

Some officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have argued that US strikes on Iranian air defenses have reduced the nuclear threat by diminishing Iran\u2019s ability to defend its nuclear sites should it decide to rush toward weaponization in the future.<\/p>\n

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\n\t\tA billboard carries a portrait of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, an Iranian scientist linked to the country\u2019s nuclear program who was killed by unknown assailants, at the site of his killing in Absard east of the capital, Tehran, Iran, on December 16, 2020. (AP Photo\/Vahid Salemi)<\/p>\n

There is also the impact of Israel\u2019s assassinations of Iran\u2019s leading nuclear scientists.<\/p>\n

David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector who runs the Institute for Science and International Security, said the killings have added significant uncertainty to Tehran\u2019s ability to build a bomb that would function as intended.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think everyone agrees knowledge can\u2019t be bombed, but know-how certainly can be destroyed,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n


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