Italy’s prime minister is seeking to revive her government’s fortunes after a damaging referendum defeat with a new electoral reform introduced in parliament on Tuesday.<\/p>\n
Reeling from her first major drubbing since taking office in 2022, Giorgia Meloni now wants a win with the new polls system, which could boost her chances of re-election next year.<\/p>\n
Though the coalition government has a comfortable majority in parliament, last week’s justice reform referendum loss undermined Meloni’s authority and destabilised her allies.<\/p>\n
“Meloni is in trouble and is showing undeniable signs of weakness,” Giovanni Orsina, political scientist at Rome’s Luiss University, told AFP.<\/p>\n
The resignations of two ministers have not stopped speculation over the government’s future, with commentators suggesting Meloni may even be forced to trigger early elections, to take advantage of a divided left.<\/p>\n
Though she has repeatedly vowed to serve until 2027, Meloni could resign once the electoral law is adopted, sparking a ballot in October.<\/p>\n
Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, head of the far-right League, vowed Monday the government would “reach the end of its term without any doubts or hesitation”, though he is weakened by a split within his party.<\/p>\n
Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani’s centre-right Forza Italia, the driving force of the referendum, is also under strain.<\/p>\n
Meloni’s office refused a request for comment.<\/p>\n
Orsina thought the prime minister’s resignation “highly improbable”, but said the challenge now is to stop the political “snowball effect” triggered by the defeat.<\/p>\n
–\u00a0‘Potentially irreversible decline’ –<\/p>\n
The prime minister needs a new project to galvanise her government after the defeat, and the electoral reform is cost free.<\/p>\n
But Meloni’s own far-right Brothers of Italy party is divided over whether to push forward with it, commentator Ilario Lombardo wrote in the Stampa daily Monday.<\/p>\n
“On the one hand they see it as the only way to avoid a potentially irreversible decline,” he wrote.<\/p>\n
“On the other, they fear insisting on the electoral law will sound off in a moment of global uncertainty, with the war, sky-high energy prices, cost of living (crisis), and an ally in Washington who cannot be relied upon.”<\/p>\n
And though government parties are ahead in the polls, the revised law could also prove an electoral boomerang.<\/p>\n
The current system is a mix of seats allocated with first-past-the-post and the proportional method.<\/p>\n
The reform would see Italy switch to a fully proportional system, with a seat bonus in both chambers for the coalition that wins more than 40 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n
A simulation by polling firm YouTrend last month found that under Italy’s\u00a0current system neither the centre-right nor the centre-left would get a parliamentary majority at the 2027 polls.<\/p>\n
Under the new one, the centre-right would likely win the bonus seats.<\/p>\n
– ‘Heavy burden’ –<\/p>\n
But a simulation by pollster Nando Pagnoncelli Monday showed that the centre-left could take those bonus seats, should the right bloc lose the rebel, far-right National Future party.<\/p>\n
And though the left has long struggled to find a way to work together on key issues, and lacks a shared PM candidate, it has been invigorated by its referendum win.<\/p>\n
It accuses Meloni of ignoring the defeat and rushing to change the electoral law for her own political interests, rather than focusing on the country’s ills.<\/p>\n
Salvatore Vassallo, political science professor at Bologna University, said her main problem is that her closeness to US President Donald Trump is seen as an increasing liability, according to pollsters.<\/p>\n
The relationship “risks becoming a heavy burden, both because of the embarrassment caused by Trump’s choices and methods, and because of their potentially devastating impact on the Italian economy,” he told AFP.<\/p>\n
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