Asia Economic Data Preview: Japan Inflation, BoJ Rate Decision, and Regional GDP Updates - News and Statistics

Apr 27, 2026

According to an ING analysis, upcoming economic data from Japan is set to show intensifying inflationary pressures alongside a resilient economy. Labour market conditions are expected to remain tight, with the unemployment rate forecast to dip to 2.5%. Monthly activity data is projected to rebound firmly, partially reversing previous months’ declines, while the energy shock is not believed to have significantly impacted production so far. The Tokyo CPI is anticipated to rise faster in April, driven by recent energy price hikes, a weak yen, solid wage growth, and bi-annual price adjustments.

These developments complicate the Bank of Japan‘s rate decision scheduled for Tuesday. Markets broadly expect the BoJ to hold rates steady due to uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation, though analysts see a chance of a rate hike on 28 April. Board members’ concerns about higher inflation expectations are likely to grow as real interest rates remain deeply negative. CPI inflation accelerated more than expected in March and is set to accelerate further in the coming months.

The BoJ will release its quarterly outlook report on the day of the rate decision. The inflation outlook is likely to be revised upward from the current 1.9% to 2.4% for fiscal year 2026 and from 2.0% to 2.2% for fiscal year 2027. Meanwhile, the GDP outlook is expected to be revised down modestly from 1.0% to 0.7% for fiscal year 2026, though GDP is still expected to remain above potential, supporting potential rate hikes.

In South Korea, early April trade data shows robust chip exports driving export growth. With memory chip prices climbing and refineries passing higher input costs through to output, April exports are expected to increase 50% year over year.

China will release its April PMI data. The official PMI rebounded to expansionary territory in March, but in April the index could dip back into contractionary territory, with the manufacturing PMI forecast to fall to 49.9 and the non-manufacturing PMI to 49.8. Evidence of price pressures is likely to continue building in the PMI sub-indices.

Taiwan is expected to report continued stellar growth in its first-quarter GDP data on Thursday, with an estimated 11.5% year-over-year growth for the January-March period amid consistently outperforming data. Growth will be primarily driven by external demand again. Following a flurry of upward revisions over the last two years, the full-year GDP forecast was revised up to 8.2% year over year from 6.7% earlier this month. The first-quarter release will help indicate whether this forecast is an overshoot or still too conservative.

Australia’s CPI is expected to accelerate to 4.6% year over year, largely driven by the surge in oil prices. Inflation dynamics are likely to deteriorate further in the second quarter amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and no meaningful de-escalation in the war. If the Reserve Bank of Australia intends to stay ahead of the curve, it is likely to move in May rather than waiting until August.

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

REPORT DESCRIPTION
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS

2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

KEY FINDINGS
MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional EditionPRO

3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects

MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
MARKET FORECAST TO 2035

4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT

5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES

6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export

TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
UNSATURATED MARKETS
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS

7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries

IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports

EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)

10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition
PRO

11.1

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