Japan’s arms export revival sets up showdown with Korea

A launch ceremony for the 3,000-ton JS Taigei takes place at the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Kobe Shipyard in Kobe, Japan, on Oct. 14, 2020. [JAPAN MARITIME SELF-DEFENSE FORCE]

 


[NEWS ANALYSIS]

Is Tokyo muscling in on Seoul’s defense export markets? 

 

With the easing of a decades-old ban on arms exports, Japan has clinched a defense cooperation pact with Indonesia while eyeing Poland and the Philippines for potential arms sales.

 

All three nations are important export markets for Korean defense firms, although it remains to be seen whether the deals will carry through. Mariusz Boguszewski, deputy chief of mission at Poland’s embassy in Japan, said that “Warsaw and Tokyo can help plug gaps in each other’s arsenals, cooperating in areas like antidrone and electronic warfare systems,” according to a Reuters report published on April 15. 

 


 

Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin met in Jakarta on Monday and committed to “practical cooperation in the defense industry and personnel development sectors while taking into account each country’s national interests,” according to a joint statement reported by Indonesia’s Antara news agency.  

 

The Japanese defense ministry said the two sides would also expand exchanges on defense equipment and technology.

 

Koizumi described the cooperation as a strategic move amid rising global tensions, citing both nations’ status as archipelagic states that need to reinforce maritime defense. The two ministers also agreed to cooperate on humanitarian missions, including disaster response.

 

Indonesia has been Korea’s principal foreign partner in the KF-21 Boramae fighter program since 2010, originally committing to fund 20 percent of development costs in exchange for technology transfers and license production rights.

 

The partnership has frayed in recent years as Jakarta fell behind on payments, prompting renegotiations, but Indonesia remains officially engaged, and Indonesian engineers have worked alongside Korea Aerospace Industries on the program.  

Indonesia’s Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, right, walks with Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, left, at the Indonesian Defense Ministry’s office in Jakarta on May 4. [AFP/YONHAP]

 

While Japan’s entry into Indonesia may raise concerns in Seoul, experts argue that Korea should avoid overreacting to Tokyo’s expansion into more offensive capabilities.

 

“Rather than being overly concerned about Japan exporting offensive weapons, Korea should focus on its own strengths, particularly defensive systems,” said Kim Ki-won, a professor at Daekyung University’s department of military studies. “Countries facing threats from major powers need cost-effective and efficient defensive capabilities to build minimum defense capacity.”

 

The Japanese diplomatic push comes weeks after a major regulatory overhaul. The Japanese government on April 21 revised its Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology, abolishing the so-called five categories framework that had previously limited exports to rescue, transport, surveillance, monitoring and mine-clearing equipment, the Nikkei reported.  

 

Japan’s arms exports remain limited to a small group of partner nations with which it has signed defense equipment and technology transfer agreements. The list of 17 countries includes the United Arab Emirates, the Philippines, Australia and Malaysia, all of which rank among Korea’s largest defense export markets. Including countries currently in negotiations, the figure could rise to around 20. 

 

The change, approved at a Japanese cabinet session and a meeting of the National Security Council (NSC)’s nine ministers, redefines the purpose of exports as strengthening the deterrence and response capabilities of allies and friendly countries to create a security environment favorable to Japan.

 

Equipment classified as “weapons” under Japan’s Self-Defense Forces Act can now be exported, lifting the principal ban on finished products with lethal capability. Exports to countries at war remain prohibited in principle, but exceptions are allowed when national security necessitates it, subject to review by the four-minister NSC meeting attended by the prime minister.  

 

While formal control mechanisms remain in place, the practical effect is to remove the lock on lethal weapons exports.

 

Korean submarine ROKS Dosan Ahn Chang-ho enters Naval Base Guam on April 7 for logistics loading while en route to Canada. [NEWS1]

  

The policy shift is already showing competitive results. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries signed a $7 billion next-generation frigate contract with Australia on April 18, beating bids from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean.  

 

Japan is also co-developing a sixth-generation stealth fighter with Britain and Italy, producing Patriot PAC-3 missiles with the United States and jointly developing the Glide Phase Interceptor, a hypersonic missile interceptor, with Washington.

 

Two Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile (M-SAM) systems are used during a drill in Korea in this undated stock photo [JOONGANG PHOTO]

 

Tokyo is also exploring strategies that could directly target Korean strongholds. The Japanese government is reviewing plans to provide used weapons to developing countries either free of charge or at low prices, accelerating its market entry.

Associate Prof. Jang Won-jun from the defense technology department at Jeonbuk University warned that Japan already holds advantages in certain sectors, particularly naval platforms.

 

“Japan is ahead in naval exports, especially in areas like frigates, where it has demonstrated competitiveness,” he said, citing its recent success in Australia.

 

Jang added that Japan’s ability to tailor systems, including reduced manpower requirements and extended operational range, has strengthened its position in bids.

The submarine market may be the next flashpoint. Indonesia placed a follow-on order for three Korean-built Nagapasa-class submarines seven years ago but has not moved on the contract since. On Tuesday, Korean news outlet OBS reported that Jakarta has now formed a “working group” with Tokyo to discuss buying new or used Japanese submarines instead. 

 

“If a new supplier shows up with a new deal, chances are [Indonesia] will say yes to it,” said Jang. “There will almost certainly be an expansion of choices for these countries.”

BY KIM MIN-YOUNG [[email protected]]