Japan’s Upper House began deliberations on constitutional revision this week, marking the start of parliamentary debates following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pledge to be ready to advance an amendment by next year.
While revising the postwar Constitution has long been a goal of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Takaichi’s remarks drew criticism for appearing to set a timeline for progress. This was evident during this week’s constitutional review committee hearing, in which opposition parties denounced her assertions and revealed that achieving that timeline would not be easy.
Japan has high hurdles for constitutional revision. Amending the supreme law requires a two-thirds majority in both houses of parliament as well as a majority vote in a public referendum.
While the LDP currently holds the necessary supermajority in the Lower House, it is well short of that in the Upper House.
For the LDP, a successful push for amendment involves several steps, beginning with negotiations with its coalition partner the Japan Innovation Party, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai. Then it must get other pro-amendment parties to agree with the proposal, while also persuading the public ahead of a referendum.
Despite the challenges, Takaichi has communicated her intent to accomplish the first two steps by next year. “We hope to hold a party convention next year in a state where we can say that there is a prospect of proposing a constitutional amendment,” she said during last week’s LDP party convention. Takaichi was not specific about the intended content of such an amendment.
At the constitutional review meeting on Wednesday, parties laid out their positions on potential amendments, raising common arguments while introducing new perspectives on the debate.
In doing so, four things became clear.
Past debates on constitutional amendment included issues such as free education, local autonomy, emergency powers for the government and of course the Article 9 war renunciation clause. These now extend to issues such as expanding Upper House responsibilities and establishment of a constitutional court, among other things.
This presents a double-edged sword for the Takaichi administration. While it allows the prime minister to explain to the public that constitutional amendment is not simply about revising Article 9, adding technocratic arguments into the mix would make for complex policy explanations ahead of a nationwide referendum.
Second, while the LDP is likely to find support among conservative parties, it may struggle to settle on what will be included in the amendment proposal. Each of the pro-amendment parties have raised multiple topics that they want.
In the case of Sanseito, which holds 15 seats in the Upper House that could prove crucial to reaching the two-thirds threshold, the party has argued for major revisions to the Constitution…