Japan’s exports rose at the fastest clip in more than three years as demand for chips related to artificial intelligence offset sluggish car shipments to the U.S., in data that were helped somewhat by the Lunar New Year effect.
The value of overall exports gained 16.8% in January from a year earlier, the sharpest increase since November 2022, the Finance Ministry reported Wednesday. That beat the median analyst forecast of a 13% rise. Overall shipments of semiconductors and other electronic components rose by almost 40%, led by a 51.7% jump in exports destined for China.
The figures come against a backdrop of growing optimism over the outlook for international commerce at the World Trade Organization. The WTO’s director-general said last month that the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence may underpin global merchandise trade this year, helping overcome U.S. tariff headwinds.
“Some semiconductor-related shipments are showing strength and that’s probably the benefit of rising AI demand,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. “The data confirm little impact from U.S. tariffs as a weak yen is helping Japanese exporters.”
The data show that goods exports continue to pick up as companies work around the impact of U.S. tariffs, which eased somewhat following a trade deal last year. Japan and the U.S. are working to implement Tokyo’s pledge to increase investment in the U.S., a key provision of the agreement that reduced tariffs on U.S. imports of Japanese cars.
Tokyo plans to invest $36 billion in U.S. oil, gas and critical mineral projects, the first tranche of the $550 billion commitment. Those plans, announced overnight, come ahead of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s planned visit to Washington for a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in March.
By region, exports to China rose by 32%, while those destined for the European Union increased 29.6% and those to the U.S. fell 5%. The figures for China were distorted by the Lunar New Year factor, as the holidays fell in January a year ago.
“Some special factors are at play, including front loading before the Chinese new year, so Japan’s exports aren’t as strong as the headline figure suggests,” Minami said. “But it’s probably safe to say they’re recovering gradually.”
The value of auto shipments to the U.S. fell 9.9%, while the number of vehicles shipped declined by only 0.8% from a year earlier. The gap suggests Japanese carmakers faced with Trump’s tariffs are continuing to sacrifice profits in order to maintain market share in the U.S. through price cuts. There’s a risk that narrowing profit margins resulting from the strategy may limit the firms’ capacity to raise wages at home.
While the yen was largely unchanged from levels a…