Following disputes over resource management, Mexico and Japan agreed to modify Pacific bluefin tuna fishing quotas for 2027-2028. The agreement is key for Mexico’s fishing and seafood industries, particularly Baja California, where bluefin tuna production is export-oriented and Japan is a key market. The quota changes could affect fisheries management, export supply, and negotiations within the WCPFC and IATTC.

Mexico and Japan have reached an agreement to modify Pacific bluefin tuna fishing quotas for 2027 and 2028. The agreement includes a 25% increase in the quota for large bluefin tuna, based on the argument that the species’ populations have recovered and are no longer at risk levels that would justify maintaining current catch restrictions.

The agreement comes after weeks of disagreements between the two countries. During the International Conference for the Management of Pacific Bluefin Tuna Fisheries, held in July in Nagasaki, Japan, the Mexican government opposed an increase in fishing quotas for the Western and Central Pacific.

The Japanese government, which sought to implement a new automated management system to increase the catch limit for bluefin tuna weighing more than 30kg, described Mexico’s position as “extremely regrettable,” arguing that it disregarded the negotiating efforts undertaken by participating countries.

Japan’s proposal to increase catch quotas is based on the recovery of bluefin tuna populations following a period in which fishing pressure in the region was reduced to support the species’ reproduction. According to local media, waters off Japan, particularly around Hokkaido and the Tohoku region, are experiencing an abundant fishing season, with catches far exceeding current limits.

A fishing cooperative in Tohoku revealed that in June it was forced to release more than 99% of the 6,000 tuna caught in its fixed nets. Against this backdrop, local fishermen have called for regulatory reforms that would allow catch limits to be adjusted to the biological conditions of the resource and the economic realities of fishing communities.

On the other hand, the Mexican delegation’s initial decision was supported by concerns that fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific, particularly Japan, could ultimately catch more tuna than anticipated under the new system. Although Mexico primarily fishes in the Eastern Pacific, Pacific bluefin tuna is a transoceanic population, meaning that decisions adopted in the Western Pacific also have implications for resource management in Mexican waters.

Nevertheless, Japanese authorities announced on August 18 that negotiations had resumed and concluded with an agreement to modify catch quotas for 2027 and 2028. Japan’s Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Norikazu Suzuki, confirmed that Mexico had agreed to the proposal.

Recovery of Bluefin Tuna Populations

The observations reported by Japanese fishermen are consistent with scientific data showing the recovery of Pacific bluefin tuna populations. In this regard, the increase in resource abundance should be analyzed in the context of international measures implemented in previous years to reduce fishing pressure.

International restrictions were introduced after Pacific bluefin tuna reached historically low population levels. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the stock’s spawning biomass fell to approximately 2% of its unfished potential between 2009 and 2012. In response, the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC) and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) adopted measures beginning in 2011 to reduce fishing pressure, particularly on juvenile tuna. The strategy established rebuilding targets aimed at restoring spawning biomass to 10% of unfished levels as a first target and 20% as a second target.

The measures produced results faster than anticipated. The 2024 assessment by the International Scientific Committee for Tuna and Tuna-Like Species in the North Pacific Ocean (ISC) estimated that spawning biomass reached 144,483 tonnes in 2022, equivalent to 23.2% of unfished levels and more than 10 times the minimum recorded in 2010. The stock surpassed the second rebuilding target of 20% in 2021, approximately a decade ahead of schedule. Based on this assessment, NOAA currently classifies Pacific bluefin tuna as neither overfished nor subject to overfishing. However, the ISC cautions that increases in catches should remain subject to controlled management measures to avoid compromising the progress achieved.

What Does the Agreement Entail?

The quota modification includes higher catch limits in different areas of the Pacific, although not all regions will receive the same increase or operate under the same conditions. For Pacific bluefin tuna weighing more than 30kg, the 2027 and 2028 catch quota in the Western and Central Pacific will increase from 11,869 tonnes to 14,836 tonnes, representing an increase of nearly 25% over the current limit and primarily benefiting Japan. However, the new system also calls for a 6% reduction in the quota for tuna weighing less than 30kg. This measure is intended to contribute to the conservation of the species and maintain the recovery of its populations.

In the Eastern Pacific, where Mexico operates, no distinction will be made between tuna weighing more or less than 30kg. The quota for this region will increase from 7,581 tonnes to 7,740 tonnes. Although the increase is considerably smaller than that agreed for the Western and Central Pacific, it is strategically important for Mexico’s fishing industry given Japan’s importance as a destination for bluefin tuna caught in Mexico. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER), production in Baja California is primarily destined for export, and Japan has historically been one of the main markets for this fishery.

What Comes Next?

Despite the agreement reached between the two countries, the proposal must still be approved at the annual meetings of the WCPFC and IATTC, the organizations responsible for managing tuna fisheries in the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively, before it can take effect.

Norikazu Suzuki, Japan’s Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries, acknowledged that negotiations will continue among the countries and regions involved in managing Pacific bluefin tuna, particularly regarding the allocation of catch limits.

“Looking ahead, we anticipate difficult negotiations to reach consensus among the countries and regions concerned on issues such as the allocation of catch quotas,” says Suzuki. Japan expects complicated negotiations, particularly with South Korea and Taiwan, which are also seeking access to these resources.