Genta Koja, left, and incumbant Denny Tamaki are front-runners for the Okinawa gubernatorial election slated for Sept. 13, 2026. (Keishi Koja/Stars and Stripes)
Rising prices, jobs and the economy are eclipsing the U.S. military presence as the top concern for Okinawan voters heading into a closely contested gubernatorial election this month, according to a new poll and political analysts.
Nearly 47% of respondents to a Ryukyu Shimpo/JX Press survey said the economy, employment and measures to combat rising prices were their most important issues in deciding how to vote, compared with 16.6% who cited U.S. bases and security.
The poll, conducted Aug. 28-30 and published Wednesday, found incumbent Gov. Denny Tamaki and his principal challenger, Genta Koja, running neck and neck, with about half of respondents still undecided.
The election is Sept. 13.
Tamaki, 66, an independent seeking a third term, has made opposition to the U.S. military presence and the relocation of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma a defining issue of his administration.
Koja, 42, also an independent and a former Naha vice mayor, is backed by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party. He supports relocating MCAS Futenma from densely populated Ginowan to a new airfield under construction at Camp Schwab in Henoko.
Koja also supports the planned return to Japanese control of U.S. military property south of Kadena Air Base under the 2013 Consolidation Plan for Facilities and Areas in Okinawa.
But the latest polling suggests voters are placing greater emphasis on their finances than on the decades-old dispute over U.S. bases.
“Voters seem to be most worried about securing better economic prospects for themselves and their children,” Mark Davidson, an assistant professor of Asian studies and political science at Temple University Japan, said by email Tuesday.
The campaign has mostly centered on the economy, where there are “no striking differences” between the candidates, Junjiro Shida, a senior associate professor of international politics at Meio University in Nago, said by email Wednesday.
But the MCAS Futenma dispute remains a dividing line.
Tamaki has repeatedly challenged the Japanese government in court in attempts to halt construction of the replacement airfield and favors closing MCAS Futenma without completing the relocation.
A Koja victory could accelerate the project, while another Tamaki term would allow the governor to “delay but not prevent relocation,” Davidson said.
Opposition to the project has also been complicated by two fatal accidents involving people associated with the anti-base movement over the past two years, Shida said.
In June 2024, a security guard was killed and a protester injured when they were struck by a truck hauling landfill material for the Henoko project at Awa port.
In March, a teenage girl and a boat captain died after two vessels associated with the anti-base movement capsized near the construction site.
Tamaki has been less aggressive in his opposition to the Henoko project since the accidents, Shida said.
Six candidates are competing for governor, the largest field in the prefecture’s history. In addition to Tamaki and Koja, the ballot includes Masahiro Sueyoshi, Shun Kaneshima, Takashi Higa and Chosuke Yara, according to Okinawa prefecture’s website.
“This surge in candidacies is likely an expression of their shared desire to improve Okinawa through their own efforts,” Shida said.