A challenger backed by the Liberal Democratic Party holds a slight lead over the incumbent in Okinawa Prefecture’s gubernatorial race as voters focus more on economic revitalization than U.S. military base concerns, a survey showed.

However, about 40 percent of respondents in the survey declined to disclose their voting preference, meaning the race could still shift before the Sept. 13 election day.

Genta Koja, 42, has consolidated support among LDP backers and was running strongly among younger voters, according to the survey.

Denny Tamaki, 66, who is seeking a third term, retained support among older voters and opponents of the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in Ginowan to the Henoko district in Nago, also in the prefecture, the survey showed.

The survey was conducted jointly by The Asahi Shimbun, The Okinawa Times Co. and Ryukyu Asahi Broadcasting Corp. on Sept. 5 and 6 through telephone and online polling.

The results showed that economic revitalization was the top voting issue, cited by 52 percent of respondents. Among those voters, 70 percent supported Koja, while 20 percent backed Tamaki.

By contrast, 15 percent identified the U.S. military base issue as their top concern, and 80 percent of those respondents favored Tamaki.

An additional 19 percent cited personal character and background as their top consideration, with 60 percent backing Tamaki and 40 percent supporting Koja.

The survey results continue a trend seen in recent elections.

SHIFTING PRIORITIES

The share of voters who said economic revitalization was their top priority rose from 35 percent in 2018 to 48 percent in 2022.

Over the same period, the percentage citing the military base issue as their most important concern fell from 42 percent to 32 percent.

Koja, a former vice mayor of Naha, is backed by the LDP, Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), the Democratic Party for the People, Sanseito and the Conservative Party of Japan.

Tamaki, a former Lower House member, first won the governor’s office in 2018 with backing from anti-relocation groups.

His political base is the All Okinawa Kaigi (All Okinawa Council), a coalition that includes the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party.

Fifty-six percent of voters opposed the project, more than double the 26 percent in favor of it, in a survey conducted ahead of the 2022 gubernatorial election.

This time, support and opposition were nearly evenly split, at 35 percent and 37 percent, respectively.

Among respondents who support the relocation plan, 90 percent said they would vote for Koja, who favors the project.

Among those opposed, 80 percent backed Tamaki.

The survey also asked about the Self-Defense Forces’ “southwestern shift” strategy to strengthen defenses across the Nansei island chain, including islands of Okinawa Prefecture.

Support stood at 45 percent, compared with 34 percent in opposition.

Among supporters of the policy, 80 percent backed Koja, while 80 percent of opponents favored Tamaki.

Among voters who identified the base relocation issue as their top concern, 77 percent opposed the policy.

COALITIONS TAKE SHAPE

Among decided voters, Koja had nearly unified support among LDP backers and drew support from 40 percent of independents.

He also gained support from 50 percent to 60 percent of voters in their 60s and younger.

Tamaki retained support from CDP and JCP backers and won support from about half of voters aged 70 and older.

He also received support from about half of independent voters.

Also running are: Shun Kaneshima, 48, president of an IT company; Chosuke Yara, 74, leader of the Ryukyu Independence Party; Takashi Higa, 49, president of a magnetic survey company; and Masahiro Sueyoshi, 73, an executive of a medical corporation. All face long odds in the race.

The online survey, conducted by four research companies, targeted registered panelists who are eligible voters in Okinawa Prefecture and collected 1,260 valid responses.

The telephone survey used the random digit dialing method, in which interviewers called randomly generated landline numbers. Of 1,853 households confirmed to contain eligible voters, 900 valid responses were obtained, for a response rate of 49 percent.