There is already strong interest from Asia and beyond. Masahiko Arai, a senior vice-president at Mitsubishi Electric’s defence unit, told Reuters that “offers are coming from everywhere”, and the company has been adding staff in London and Singapore to facilitate defence exports.
The government has also argued that opening up the defence industry – which has until now been reliant on domestic spending – could help boost economic growth. Mr Arai said Mitsubishi expected defence sales to triple to roughly $3.8bn (£2.8bn) by 2031.
“Globally, the next big muscle movement in allied deterrence will be building industrial capacity and supply chains that don’t run through China,” said Mr Koch. “For both of those, Japan becomes an indispensable ally… the harder question is whether Japan’s industrial base can actually scale fast enough to matter in the timeframe deterrence requires.”
Mr Yang added: “It’s not only just traditional US allies in Asia looking for Japan as an alternative supplier of advanced weapons systems. European countries are also looking to Japan because of the same backlog in the US industrial pipeline, and the US capacity to supply much-needed weapons.”
‘Iron Lady’ also eyes constitutional change
For Ms Takaichi, who is known as Japan’s Iron Lady, easing restrictions is not the only change in her sights. At her party’s annual conference earlier this month, she said the time had come to revisit the constitution, and suggested that proposals for change could be put forward in 2027.
But although she may have the votes to push through constitutional amendments after securing a three-quarters majority in the lower house in February, many in Japan view constitutional reform as much more extreme than boosting defensive abilities and partnerships.
Addressing these concerns on Tuesday, Ms Takaichi stressed that “there is absolutely no change in our commitment to upholding the path and fundamental principles we have followed as a peace-loving nation for over 80 years since the war”.
Mr Yang said: “There’s a long-standing, self-imposed pacifism mindset among Japanese people, which is why I think Takaishi is focusing on lifting the export of weapons as a first step. She understands that it will take longer to build a social consensus around changing the specific clauses in Japan’s pacifist constitution.
“Meanwhile, the export of lethal weapons can always be packaged as beefing up Japan’s industry and economy. The ruling party will be tracking the response to any upcoming announcement closely.”
Beijing’s anger at ‘reckless’ move
China reacted angrily to the announcement on Tuesday, vowing to resist what it called Japan’s “reckless militarisation”.
Guo Jiakun, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, told a news briefing: “The international community, including China, will remain highly vigilant on this, and firmly resist Japan’s reckless new-style militarisation.”
In a sign of Japan’s mounting security concerns, Tokyo also sent a contingent of 1,400 soldiers to take part in the annual Balikatan war games for the first time this week. Held in and by the Philippines, along with the US, the 17-day exercises this year are the largest ever, featuring some 17,000 soldiers.
In a separate military exercise in Japan’s south-western Oita region on Tuesday, an explosion in a tank killed three soldiers, according to Ms Takaichi, who said an investigation into the “truly regrettable” accident was under way.
Meanwhile, Ms Takaichi sent a ritual offering on Tuesday to a shrine honouring the country’s war dead that has long angered neighbouring countries, but did not visit in person.
The Yasukuni Shrine, in central Tokyo, is dedicated to 2.5 million war dead, mostly Japanese, who perished in conflicts since the late 19th century – including senior military and political figures convicted by an international tribunal of war crimes before and during the Second World War against China and Korea.
A Japanese prime minister has not visited the shrine since 2013, but Ms Takaichi’s predecessors Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida regularly sent offerings for the biannual spring and autumn festivals.
Abe visited the shrine in 2013, provoking fury in Beijing and Seoul and earning a rare diplomatic rebuke from close ally the US.
On Tuesday, South Korea expressed “deep disappointment and regret” over Ms Takaichi’s offering.