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Long-pacifist Japan has shed its self-imposed ban on lethal weaponry exports, gunning for a prominent place in the global defence trade — a challenging feat that analysts say could take years to achieve.<\/p>\n
Under Japan’s once-strict stance adopted following its World War II surrender and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it has generally restricted arms exports in recent times to non-lethal categories like rescue, transport and surveillance.<\/p>\n
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government scrapped these constraints last month, allowing firms to supply lethal weaponry to any of the 17 countries where Japan has defence cooperation agreements.<\/p>\n
Prohibitions on sales to nations at war remain but can be circumvented under special circumstances.<\/p>\n
Five Japanese firms, including Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries, are already in the top 100 global defence companies, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).<\/p>\n
But they have largely lived off domestic demand from Japan’s military, often in cooperation with US defence firms.<\/p>\n
Analysts say a focus on high-tech sectors could help the transition, but caution that it could take years for defence exports to become a big contributor to economic growth, hampered by capacity and workforce shortages.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said it was a “transition from a domestic, ministry-led procurement model to a normal practice which companies could drive business opportunities just like other global companies are doing.”<\/p>\n
He added that as newcomers on the global market, Japanese firms should focus on “higher-tech niches” like naval and propulsion systems, advanced missiles, sensors and electronics.<\/p>\n
– No ‘immediate impact’ –<\/p>\n
With conflicts raging around the world, the international defence market is huge and fast growing, soaring by 41 percent between 2016 and 2025 to almost $3 trillion, according to SIPRI.<\/p>\n
While Japanese firms may only export to 17 countries, those include some of the world’s biggest defence spenders like the United States, Germany, India and Britain.<\/p>\n
Evolutions in technology and the way wars are fought — notably with drones — are also making the global arms market more diffuse, which could benefit Japan, according to analysts at the Stimson Center.<\/p>\n
Along with a steep decline in Russian arms exports, Washington’s “increasingly unpredictable, extractive, and at times\u00a0confrontational\u00a0approach” has also pushed importers to seek alternatives to the United States, the Stimson Center said in a research note.<\/p>\n
“Though the trend\u00a0remains\u00a0nascent, for Japan,\u00a0the wandering eyes of\u00a0traditional US defence partners\u00a0could add to the\u00a0demand for the sorts of sophisticated\u00a0capabilities\u00a0Tokyo is well-prepared to offer.”<\/p>\n