{"id":21689,"date":"2026-05-13T12:45:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T12:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/21689\/"},"modified":"2026-05-13T12:45:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T12:45:36","slug":"japan-quietly-prepares-itself-amid-chinas-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/21689\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan quietly prepares itself amid China’s rise"},"content":{"rendered":"

This was not my first visit to Japan. Every time I’ve been here over the past two decades, the country seems different. I feel as if I am stepping into a time laboratory, where the past and future quietly converse. But Japan sheds its skin without ever losing its soul. Its body may age, yet its eyes retain their brilliance.<\/p>\n

I began my journey in Osaka\u2014a city that manages its population density with quiet precision. Queues move in an unspoken rhythm, technology serves as a tool rather than a display, and public spaces are treated as shared treasures. The streets are free of clamour, and progress weaves itself discreetly into the fabric of daily life.<\/p>\n

I arrived as the city prepared to bid farewell to Expo 2025, passing the torch to Riyadh Expo 2030. I had been to Osaka years earlier, readying itself for this event, and now I returned to witness its close. The scene\u2014marked by respectful bows, measured applause, and music that treaded softly along the edges of order\u2014was more than a celebration. It was a bridge between two renaissances: Japan, which crafted its miracle in the 20th century, and Saudi Arabia, redefining ambition in the 21st. It felt like a symbolic moment\u2014one that encapsulated two eras and two visions: from discipline to aspiration, from experience to renewal.<\/p>\n

In the exhibition halls, I wandered through numerous pavilions. I entered a room dedicated to artificial intelligence. It glowed with cool light, screens pulsed with shifting images, and robots moved as if learning to emulate human caution. In Osaka, progress feels like an act of reflection rather than a race. While the world discusses China\u2019s ascent and the rivalry among great powers, Japan forges its own path\u2014one of patience.<\/p>\n

Osaka\u2014in the spirit of Expo 2025\u2014does not dazzle with novelty but convinces with utility. It presents an understated future, adding function without seeking admiration. Yet, in the background, a question chased me throughout my journey: how does Japan coexist with an increasingly powerful neighbour that is becoming more assertive\u2014testing its boundaries at sea, in the air, and economically\u2014without forsaking its tranquil nature?<\/p>\n

Hiroshima: here, nothing is ordinary<\/p>\n

From Osaka, the high-speed Shinkansen sent me to Hiroshima. The ride felt quick, but it was long enough to hear the hum of the future tied down to the weight of memory. Rice fields stretched in astonishing geometric precision, and small houses were neatly dotted along the path.<\/p>\n

Hiroshima treads gently on the edges of history. Here, nothing is ordinary. The very air carries a reminder that pain can be transformed into a lesson. In the Peace Memorial Park, trees sway beside the scarred Atomic Bomb Dome, and schoolchildren in uniform carry flowers, hanging hundreds of origami cranes on branches. Each crane bears words of peace, hope, and remembrance for the victims. Tourists queue to snap pictures of the arch visited by President Barack Obama as a gesture of reconciliation with the past.<\/p>\n

\"KIMIMASAUS President Barack Obama shakes hands with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe after laying a wreath in front of the cenotaph commemorating the US atomic bombing in 1945 at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park on 27 May 2016.<\/p>\n

Here, memory is not a call to arms nor a pretext for vengeance but a lesson in ethics. Visitors enter the museum to confront an ugly truth. The tragedy is taught not to be invoked but to be managed. Respect for humanity, through respect for facts, has become a code of conduct. This inclination toward order and civility is not merely social etiquette\u2014it is a defence mechanism. As one Japanese speaker noted, \u201cOur nation learned the meaning of defeat early and chose to respond with order.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kyoto: narrow alleys, big questions<\/p>\n

From Hiroshima to Kyoto, the language may change, but the essence endures. The narrow alleys feel unconfined. Paths are clearly marked, and temples remain vibrant because they are treated as living assets rather than frozen relics. Even elderly vendors distil philosophy into a simple triad: quietude, attentiveness, and order. Here, serenity becomes a form of architecture. This cultivated calm explains how Japan today navigates its quiet anxiety over China\u2019s rise and the shifting global landscape.<\/p>\n

Tokyo: a capital of precision and unease<\/p>\n

In Tokyo\u2014the capital that never sleeps\u2014this anxiety evolves from a cultural undercurrent into tangible political and economic concerns. The city moves with clockwork precision, as if powered by human hands. From Shibuya\u2019s skyscrapers and Ginza\u2019s boutiques to the imperial gardens, every detail feels deliberate\u2014every silence intentional. Yet beneath this discipline lies a subtle unease. In caf\u00e9s and private conversations, discussions frequently turn to China\u2019s rise, the threat of North Korea, and Russia\u2019s resurgence. In a caf\u00e9 near Ginza Station, a young man remarked, \u201cWe are the generation of caution. We live between the glory of our parents and our fear of becoming the weakest link in China\u2019s era.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Japanese are not afraid\u2014just introspective. This phrase captures their mood: silent reflection over shouting, contemplation over haste. But this time, something new stirs\u2014political turbulence. One expert observed: \u201cThe internal crises are unprecedented: the collapse of the Liberal Democratic Party government, corruption allegations, stifling inflation, and the rise of populism.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added that Japanese populism differs from its Western counterparts, describing it as \u201ca blend of demographic anxiety and economic strain.\u201d With a rapidly ageing population, Japan faces a unique crisis, making immigration both an economic necessity and a source of growing social tension.<\/p>\n

\"MikhailRussian President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during their meeting at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on 5 September 2019.<\/p>\n

Shifting geopolitics and challenges<\/p>\n

These islands, scattered across the waters, now gaze into a mirror framed by external threats. In past visits, the national conversation often centred on a peace treaty with Russia. The late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met President Vladimir Putin 28 times to resolve the legacy of the disputed islands and secure a peace agreement that Tokyo had waited for over 80 years. Today, the landscape has shifted. There is a clear condemnation of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and a growing consensus that the old framework is untenable. Concerns mount over China\u2019s increasing assertiveness in the Senkaku Islands and North Korea\u2019s missile tests, which serve as regular reminders of the limits of patience.<\/p>\n

Amid this internal fragility, Japan strives to maintain external equilibrium. Its alliance and comprehensive security agreement with the United States remain intact, yet the use of force and building a traditional army are still prohibited under Japan\u2019s post-war constitution. In a tense geopolitical environment\u2014Russia to the north, North Korea to the east, and China to the south and west\u2014Japan\u2019s security hinges on its relationship with Washington\u2014only now, Trump is in charge, not Biden.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s Self-Defence Forces number around 200,000, yet the country struggles to get younger generations to enlist. \u201cThe idea of a military remains sensitive,\u201d one expert noted, adding: \u201cThe world has changed, and wars are no longer confined to history books,\u201d even as World War II weapons sit behind museum glass. Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida\u2019s government increased the defence budget following Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine and has embarked on a plan to raise military spending to 2 % of GDP by 2027\u2014the highest in seven decades.<\/p>\n

Winds of anxiety<\/p>\n

This time, the anxiety emanates not from the north but the south. China, wielding its economic and military might, continues to test Japan\u2019s patience at sea and in the air. Beneath the surface lies a deeper concern that competition could give way to a strategic understanding between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping\u2014one that could potentially be at Japan\u2019s expense. \u201cTokyo is concerned about a possible trade deal between Trump and Xi struck behind its back,\u201d an insider revealed.<\/p>\n

This is why Japan raced to form a new government in time to host Trump on 28 October, ahead of his scheduled meeting with the Chinese president in South Korea. Last week, it elected its first female prime minister, Sanae Takaichi. Her task will be to balance the country’s security imperatives with American expectations regarding burden-sharing, defence spending, and economic cooperation.<\/p>\n

\"PhilipLDP President Sanae Takaichi receives applause after she was selected as Japan’s new prime minister during an extraordinary session of the lower house of parliament in Tokyo on October 21, 2025.<\/p>\n

Read more: Sanae Takaichi: Japan’s first female prime minister<\/a><\/p>\n

The same source noted: \u201cBiden used to state his opposition to any unilateral move by China regarding Taiwan. Now, Xi wants Trump to say he opposes any unilateral move by Taiwan. A subtle shift in phrasing could alter the balance of deterrence.\u201d A seasoned diplomat, with experience in several major capitals, observed: \u201cAmerica played the role of global policeman for a long time and opened its markets. Trump wants to change that. He speaks of fairness\u2014but fairness means different things to different people.\u201d<\/p>\n

China\u2019s regional ambitions and Taiwan<\/p>\n

As Japan and its allies grapple with questions about the reliability of their American partner, China advances steadily, entrenching its influence in Asia and strengthening ties with Russia and North Korea. Beijing supports Moscow\u2019s war in Ukraine and buys large quantities of Russian oil. Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un\u2019s attendance at China\u2019s Victory Day celebrations was a symbolic gesture of a shifting regional alignment.<\/p>\n

But what concerns Japan the most is the prospect of China annexing Taiwan. Any escalation would likely lead to a wave of refugees reaching Japan\u2019s southern islands and could involve US bases in Okinawa, drawing Tokyo directly into the crisis. A military expert put it starkly: \u201cJapan doesn\u2019t want to become Taiwan\u2014China\u2019s Ukraine.\u201d For this reason, Japan is quietly bolstering its defences without forgoing its pacifist identity.<\/p>\n

The Senkaku Islands<\/p>\n

On the ground, the waters around the Senkaku Islands have become a test of nerves. Japan has administered the islands since 1895, but they were largely overlooked until a 1969 United Nations report suggested they possessed potential oil reserves. Since then, China made calculated moves. First, it asserted sovereignty in 1992, and then, in 2008, it sent vessels into Japanese waters. In 2016, it deployed nearly 200 ships and conducted repeated incursions, including a Chinese helicopter breaching the islands\u2019 airspace in May.<\/p>\n

China now operates three aircraft carriers\u2014one of which entered Japanese waters in September 2024, with two others conducting manoeuvres around Japan two months later. For Tokyo, these are not isolated incidents but part of what it calls \u201chostile normalisation\u201d\u2014turning friction into a routine that dulls the perception of threat. So far, Japan\u2019s response has been measured yet meticulous: legal documentation, regular patrols, and advanced electronic surveillance to minimise the chance of a surprise attack.<\/p>\n

\u201cJapan does not seek escalation, but it will not accept change by force,\u201d a senior diplomat stated. \u201cWe notify China of every breach of our territorial waters and maintain constant dialogue, as the absence of communication is the shortest path to misunderstanding.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"AlEditor-in-Chief of Al Majalla, Ibrahim Hamidi, tours a museum established by the Japanese government on maritime border disputes with Russia, South Korea, and China.<\/p>\n

The philosophy of deterrence and economic security<\/p>\n

In Japan, communication forms part of the philosophy of deterrence. Tokyo does not seek to sever ties with Beijing, but it does not fully trust it either. It continues to strengthen its maritime border forces, which now function as a small army in close coordination with the US and Australian navies while also conducting joint exercises with South Korea.<\/p>\n

In parallel, the government has launched a public awareness initiative: a museum in central Japan dedicated to educating younger generations about maritime and sovereignty disputes with Russia, South Korea, and China. It is a modest step, but one that signals a cultural shift\u2014from avoiding discussion of threats to fostering public understanding.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s confrontation with China is not solely military. It is pursuing \u201ceconomic security\u201d\u2014a form of deterrence through civilian means. The strategy is not to cut ties but to reduce dependency. Tokyo has tightened export controls on 23 categories of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for China while attracting significant domestic investment in the same sector. These projects are not merely economic but strategic, aimed at diminishing China\u2019s leverage in critical global supply chains.<\/p>\n

Navigating partnership, competition, and conflict<\/p>\n

A recent survey revealed that 90%of Japanese respondents view China negatively, with a similar proportion of Chinese respondents expressing the same sentiment toward Japan. This psychological divide complicates mutual trust, but it does not negate the need for dialogue. A seasoned diplomat summed up the dilemma: \u201cJapan cannot live in perpetual confrontation, but it cannot fully trust its neighbour either. That\u2019s why we navigate between three worlds: partnership, competition, and conflict. The key is to maintain enough distance to allow dialogue while preventing descent into confrontation.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"This was not my first visit to Japan. Every time I’ve been here over the past two decades,…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21690,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[176],"tags":[177,179,180,178],"class_list":{"0":"post-21689","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-politics","8":"tag-japans-politics","9":"tag-japanese-politics","10":"tag-politics","11":"tag-politics-of-japan"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21689","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21689"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21689\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21690"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21689"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21689"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21689"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}