TOKYO: Just four hours after US President Donald Trump departed Beijing aboard Air Force One on May 15, capping a high-stakes summit with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, he made a phone call.<\/p>\n
On the line was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who later noted in a post on X that Trump provided a \u201cdetailed explanation\u201d of his talks with Xi.<\/p>\n
They also exchanged views, she wrote, \u201cprimarily on issues related to China, including economic security, as well as security affairs\u201d.<\/p>\n
Though they spoke for only 15 minutes, the gesture went a long way towards soothing Japanese anxieties.<\/p>\n
There were fears that its sole security ally \u2013 who resurrected the concept of a \u201cG-2\u201d world dominated by two superpowers \u2013 might make concessions at Tokyo\u2019s expense.<\/p>\n
These nerves are raw in Japan, where relations with Beijing are in a tailspin after Takaichi made blunt, impromptu comments that Tokyo might intervene militarily should China invade Taiwan.<\/p>\n
Speaking to reporters after the call, Takaichi expressed immense gratitude for the \u201ctremendous support to Japan\u201d that Trump extended, implying he had spoken up for Japan while in Beijing.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe agreed to maintain close communication on the Indo-Pacific situation,\u201d she said. \u201cI was able to confirm with President Trump that the Japan-US alliance is unwavering.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, a \u201cG-2\u201d worldview threatens to leave Japan sidelined in its own neighbourhood, particularly if Trump \u2013 an unpredictable and transactional leader \u2013 decides to reduce the US military footprint in East Asia or curtail arms sales to Taiwan to win concessions from China.<\/p>\n
Fuelling these concerns was Japan\u2019s reported failed attempt to convince Trump to stop over in Tokyo en route to Beijing in a bid to ensure they were on the same page, even as Takaichi had visited Washington for a summit in March 2026.<\/p>\n
The apparent snub reignited fears of \u201cJapan Passing\u201d, a phrase to invoke the nation feeling overlooked in global statecraft.<\/p>\n
While institutional frameworks between the US and Japan are robust, Professor Heng Yee Kuang of the University of Tokyo\u2019s Graduate School of Public Policy told The Straits Times: \u201cPresident Trump\u2019s self-image as a master deal-maker means Japan must remain hyper-alert.\u201d<\/p>\n
This is all the more so, he said, given Trump\u2019s hot-cold relationships with other \u201cTrump whisperers\u201d such as Italian PM Giorgia Meloni and British PM Keir Starmer.<\/p>\n
Such sensitivity has been heightened since Japan and China have effectively stopped talking to each other. Beijing\u2019s retaliation for Takaichi\u2019s Taiwan comments was swift and multifaceted.<\/p>\n
Chinese visitor numbers have plunged, and students are being urged to avoid Japanese universities. China has also tightened export controls on rare earths and dual-use products.<\/p>\n
Japan, meanwhile, stripped away any attempt at diplomatic politesse by demoting China in its annual Diplomatic Bluebook in April, from describing it as a \u201cmost vital bilateral relationship\u201d to an \u201cimportant neighbouring country\u201d.<\/p>\n
The semantic demotion speaks volumes in the world of Asian statecraft, with China\u2019s Foreign Ministry protesting against the rewording as a \u201cbreach of faith\u201d that undermines the very foundation of their ties.<\/p>\n
Dr Rumi Aoyama, who heads the Waseda Institute of Contemporary Chinese Studies at Waseda University, told ST that Sino-Japanese relations are at their \u201cworst state\u201d since the normalisation of ties in 1972.<\/p>\n
She characterised the rewording in the Bluebook as a pragmatic effort to \u201cmore accurately reflect the current state\u201d of relations, rather than a rhetorical shift.<\/p>\n
Likewise, Prof Heng said it was \u201cmore telling to assess concrete policy developments\u201d, pointing to Japan\u2019s recent decision to lift restrictions on lethal weapon exports.<\/p>\n
Tokyo is currently in talks to send destroyers and surface-to-ship missiles to the Philippines, a neighbouring country to Taiwan.<\/p>\n
Japanese forces conducted live-fire drills with Type 88 anti-ship missiles alongside Philippine and US forces in early May, successfully striking a decommissioned minesweeper.<\/p>\n
An editorial in the Yomiuri newspaper argued that Japan is merely reacting to China: \u201cThe more China tries to intimidate Japan, the more wariness towards China spreads in Japan, bolstering support for the push… to strengthen defence capabilities.\u201d<\/p>\n
As tensions flared, Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force vessels moved through the Taiwan Strait in April for the first time in 10 months.<\/p>\n
The Yomiuri newspaper cited an official as saying that Beijing\u2019s maritime expansion could be emboldened without such passage.<\/p>\n
The friction is also evident in the East China Sea, where there are overlapping claims to the Exclusive Economic Zones.<\/p>\n
Despite a 2008 pact for joint gas exploration in the East China Sea, China has unilaterally constructed 23 \u201cgas platforms\u201d near the median line between the two countries. Two of them were built since January, Japan\u2019s Foreign Ministry has said.<\/p>\n
Experts warn that these structures could create a fait accompli, allowing Beijing to dominate maritime corridors essential for any potential military operation against Taiwan.<\/p>\n
Professor Shin Kawashima, a Sino-Japan expert at The University of Tokyo, observed that China is attempting to transform the East China Sea into an \u201cinland sea\u201d via blockading drills and structural expansion.<\/p>\n
But beyond military developments, he also saw a battle to control the narratives. \u201cThe narrative of \u2018Japan Passing\u2019 is what China desires most,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cJapan must prevent such a narrative from spreading… and explain developments to third countries to prevent them from believing Chinese propaganda.\u201d – The Straits Times\/ANN<\/p>\n
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