{"id":3187,"date":"2026-04-10T23:04:35","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T23:04:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/3187\/"},"modified":"2026-04-10T23:04:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T23:04:35","slug":"japans-gdp-expands-more-than-expected-in-second-quarter-as-tariffs-take-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/3187\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan&#8217;s GDP expands more than expected in second quarter as tariffs take hold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Tokyo Tower stands amid buildings at dusk in Tokyo, Japan.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images<\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 from the previous first three months, outpacing forecasts despite tariff headwinds out of the United States.<\/p>\n<p>This was compared to the revised <a href=\"https:\/\/www.esri.cao.go.jp\/en\/sna\/data\/sokuhou\/files\/2025\/toukei_2025.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">0.1% growth seen in the first quarter<\/a>, and was higher than the 0.1% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>The GDP beat was mainly attributed to resilience in exports, which added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared to the 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of the year. Japan&#8217;s trade deficit narrowed from April to June compared to the first quarter, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.customs.go.jp\/toukei\/shinbun\/trade-st_e\/2025\/2025_315e.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">data<\/a> from the country&#8217;s trade ministry.<\/p>\n<p>On a year-over-year basis, Japan&#8217;s GDP expanded 1.2% in the second quarter, falling short of the first quarter&#8217;s 1.8% growth.<\/p>\n<p>Annualized growth came in at 1%, more than double the 0.4% forecast.<\/p>\n<p>The benchmark <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/.N225\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nikkei 225<\/a> rose 0.59% on the news, while the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/quotes\/JPY=\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">yen<\/a> edged up 0.1% to trade at 147.6 against the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Stock Chart IconStock chart icon<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/static-redesign.cnbcfm.com\/dist\/a54b41835a8b60db28c2.svg\" class=\"Collapsible-dismissButton\" alt=\"hide content\"\/><\/p>\n<p>This comes as Japan struggled to cope with an uncertain trade environment in the second quarter, with the country only <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/07\/23\/trump-announces-massive-trade-deal-with-japan-with-15percent-tariffs.html\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">reaching a trade deal with the U.S. on July 23<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The deal sees Japan face a 15% blanket tariff on all exports to the U.S., including automobiles.<\/p>\n<p>Throughout the second quarter, Japan was spared the 24% tariff that was announced on &#8220;Liberation Day,&#8221; but had to face 25% duties on its key automobile sector.<\/p>\n<p>Auto exports to the U.S. are a cornerstone of Japan&#8217;s economy, making up 28.3% of all shipments in 2024,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.customs.go.jp\/toukei\/shinbun\/trade-st_e\/2024\/2024_117e.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">according to customs data<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Marcel Theliant, Head of Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, said in a Friday note that Japan was &#8220;shrugging off U.S. tariffs.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>However, Theliant pointed out that while the GDP rebound was &#8220;stronger than anticipated,&#8221; he expected a renewed slowdown over the coming quarters as investment spending was set to soften and exports to decline slightly.<\/p>\n<p>After its July 31 meeting, the Bank of Japan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boj.or.jp\/en\/mopo\/outlook\/gor2507a.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">upgraded its forecast for the country&#8217;s economy<\/a> to grow 0.6% in its 2025 fiscal year, running from April 2025 to March 2026. This was higher than the 0.5% in its earlier April forecast.<\/p>\n<p>However, the central bank also cautioned that trade and other policies globally would lead to a slowdown in overseas economies, as well as a decline in domestic corporate profits.<\/p>\n<p>Senior economist Masato Koike at Sompo Institute Plus said that there is a &#8220;strong sense of stagnation&#8221; ahead for Japan, according to a Google translation of his note in Japanese.<\/p>\n<p>Personal consumption is likely to continue on an upward trend as real wages recover on the back of wage increases, Koike said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;However, if the impact of tariffs affects bonuses and wage increases in 2026, this trend will likely be short-lived.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Koike also said that while demand for digital and labor-saving investments is strong, the decline in corporate profits due to tariffs will likely exert strong downward pressure on capital investment.<\/p>\n<p>There was a possibility that Japan could enter a recession, depending on the magnitude of the impact of tariffs, Koike added.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/preferences\/source?q=https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer nofollow\">Choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google and never miss a moment from the most trusted name in business news.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Tokyo Tower stands amid buildings at dusk in Tokyo, Japan. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images Japan&#8217;s&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3188,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[174],"tags":[725,728,209,191,189,188,190,1410,1506],"class_list":{"0":"post-3187","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-asia-economy","9":"tag-breaking-news-asia","10":"tag-business-news","11":"tag-economy","12":"tag-economy-of-japan","13":"tag-japans-economy","14":"tag-japanese-economy","15":"tag-nikkei-225-index","16":"tag-usd-jpy"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3187\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}