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TOKYO \u2014 Japan\u2019s population fell by more than 3 million over the past five years, according to official statistics released Friday, a drop that underscores the depths of the country\u2019s accelerating demographic crisis.<\/p>\n
The population stood at 123 million last year, according to preliminary census results, down from 126.1 million in 2020. It is the biggest decrease since the government began collecting census data in 1920.<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s population peaked in 2008 at 128 million, and it is projected to fall to 87 million by 2070. The country is now roughly the same size it was in 1989.<\/p>\n
For decades, the Japanese authorities have tried to make up for the rapidly aging population by encouraging young people to have more children.<\/p>\n
But the effort has fallen short, leaving the country with one of the world\u2019s lowest birth rates. For each new birth, there are two deaths.<\/p>\n
Japan is a harbinger of the demographic challenges that will soon buffet other developed countries. The shrinking population is already constraining Japan\u2019s economic growth, putting pressure on its healthcare system and causing labour shortages.<\/p>\n
The census data shows that the demographic crisis has reached almost every part of Japan. All but two of the country\u2019s 47 prefectures reported population decreases last year, and the rate of decline is accelerating.<\/p>\n
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A shrine maiden walks at Yasukuni Shrine during the shrine’s spring festival in Tokyo,\u00a0Japan, on April 21, 2026. (File photo: Reuters)<\/p>\n
Among the hardest-hit areas were the northern prefectures of Akita and Aomori, where the population shrank by 8% from 2020 to 2025. Those areas are home to some of Japan\u2019s oldest residents, and young people have left at a rapid rate because of stagnant wages and harsh winters.<\/p>\n
The Japanese countryside is hollowing out as the population ages and young people leave to seek jobs in Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya and other cities. In some rural areas, schools are being converted into nursing homes and community centres. Millions of homes are vacant, government offices and hospitals are downsizing, and train lines are shutting down.<\/p>\n
Opening Japan\u2019s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration, and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a \u201cJapan First\u201d agenda.<\/p>\n
\u201cJapan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run,\u201d said James Raymo, professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. \u201cIt simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n
There were a few bright spots in the census, including Okinawa, a subtropical chain of islands in the south, where the population grew slightly. Okinawa has Japan\u2019s highest fertility rate, with women there giving birth to an average of 1.5 children in their lifetimes, compared with 1.1 nationally.<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s biggest cities are managing to stave off demographic decline \u2014 for now. The population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures of Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, rose slightly to 37 million in 2025. The area now accounts for roughly 30% of Japan\u2019s total population.<\/p>\n
Tokyo, a vibrant hub of business, politics and culture, is now about 20 times denser than the rest of Japan \u2014 and one of the world\u2019s densest cities. (Tokyo\u2019s population rose more than 1% to 14.2 million last year.) The growth has been fuelled in large part by an influx of students and young workers looking for jobs and educational opportunities.<\/p>\n
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A woman in kimono, walks past a shop in a shopping district in Tokyo,\u00a0Japan, on Nov 29, 2016.\u00a0(File photo: Reuters)<\/p>\n
Japan\u2019s woes are likely to worsen in the coming decades. It will probably become increasingly difficult to find workers to staff schools, hospitals, police departments and train stations. And the country could lack enough young people to pay the taxes necessary to support retirees.<\/p>\n
Raymo said the Japanese government\u2019s efforts to promote fertility had \u201cnot really moved the needle.\u201d<\/p>\n
He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments.<\/p>\n
\u201cMore and more countries in Asia and elsewhere will experience similar levels of demographic decline,\u201d he said. \u201cJapan is just at the forefront and has been at it much longer.\u201d<\/p>\n