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<\/a><\/p>\nThe details were mixed, but the policy message was clear. Unemployment slipped from 4.3% to 4.2%, while wage growth stayed robust at 0.3% mom and rose from 3.4% to 3.5% yoy. Those figures prevent the report from being a clean dovish signal. Still, weak headline hiring gives the Fed more room to wait, especially with oil prices now far below their Q2 highs. If lower energy prices pull inflation down naturally, Chair Kevin Warsh\u2019s Fed may decide that the current 3.50-3.75% policy rate is already restrictive enough.<\/p>\n
Yen\u2019s rally added a second major theme to the session. There is no official confirmation of Japanese intervention, but the reported shift toward surprise \u201cambush\u201d tactics appears to have done what verbal warnings could not: it made traders afraid of holding crowded short-yen positions. The timing was especially effective, coming just before NFP and creating a buffer for Yen before the data. With payrolls then disappointing, Japan may have needed no actual intervention at all.<\/p>\n
Currency performance now reflects two different repricings. Dollar has become the week\u2019s weakest major currency as Fed tightening pressure fades, followed by Loonie and Aussie. Sterling leads, followed by Kiwi and Swiss Franc, helped by resilient risk sentiment and relatively firmer domestic policy expectations. Euro and Yen sit in the middle, but for different reasons: Euro is still weighed by softer ECB expectations, while Yen has been support<\/p>\n
US NFP Miss Sharply With 57k Growth, Participation Falls and Wage Growth Holds Firm<\/p>\n
US employment growth disappointed in June after payrolls rose only 57k, while falling labor force participation helped push the unemployment rate lower. Read More. <\/a><\/p>\n USD\/JPY\u2019s 150 Pips Fall: A Tactical \u201cIntervention\u201d Masterclass by Japan Ahead of NFP<\/p>\n Japan may not have intervened, but it may have achieved the same effect. We explain how strategic uncertainty triggered a 150-pip USD\/JPY slide and changed the risk calculus for yen bears ahead of NFP. Read More.<\/a><\/p>\n EUR\/GBP Accelerates Through Key Support as ECB\/BoE Yield Convergence Trade Reverses<\/p>\n EUR\/GBP isn\u2019t just reacting to softer Eurozone inflation. It\u2019s unwinding one of this year\u2019s biggest FX trades. We explain why the reversal of ECB\/BoE yield convergence could keep the cross under pressure. Read More.<\/a><\/p>\n Swiss CPI Slows to 0.6% as Imported Price Pressures Fade Further<\/p>\n Swiss inflation remained subdued in June as CPI held at 0.5% year-over-year and imported price pressures eased sharply, reinforcing Switzerland\u2019s low-inflation environment. Read More. <\/a><\/p>\n Australia Posts Biggest Trade Deficit Since 2015 as Gold, Iron Ore Exports Slump<\/p>\n Australia posted its largest trade deficit since 2015 in May as exports of gold and iron ore plunged, overwhelming modest import growth and surprising markets. Read More.<\/a><\/p>\n USD\/JPY Daily Outlook<\/p>\n USD\/JPY\u2019s steep decline and strong break of 161.51 support confirms short term topping at 162.83, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. Since this level is close to 55 D EMA (now at 159.95), strong support should be seen from there to bring rebound. But overall, consolidations should continue below 162.83 for a while.<\/p>\n