{"id":62729,"date":"2026-07-23T08:10:09","date_gmt":"2026-07-23T08:10:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/62729\/"},"modified":"2026-07-23T08:10:09","modified_gmt":"2026-07-23T08:10:09","slug":"japans-deadliest-fault-line-shifts-frustrating-megaquake-forecasts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/62729\/","title":{"rendered":"Japan\u2019s deadliest fault line shifts, frustrating megaquake forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">A Japanese study has found that the locked zone in the Nankai Trough is not permanent but changes over time, further complicating the task of predicting megaquakes along the fault line.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">A locked zone is where tectonic plates merge, allowing stress to build up until it is released in an earthquake. In the case of the 900km (560-mile) long Nankai Trough off Japan\u2019s Pacific coast, it is where the Philippine plate meets the Eurasian plate.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">The Philippine plate is slipping under the Eurasian plate at a rate of 4-6cm (1.6-2.4 inches) a year, according to a report of the study by The Mainichi newspaper.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Earthquakes happen when the plates lock, causing movement to be impeded and pressure to build up. Should that immense energy be released, it could cause megaquakes, which is why identifying locked zones is useful in trying to predict future shaking and tsunamis.<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">However, the study conducted by a team from the University of Tokyo\u2019s Institute of Industrial Science and the Japanese coastguard found that while some areas remained continuously locked, others were more fluid.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Waves of a tsunami hit residences after a powerful earthquake in Natori, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, on March 11, 2011. Photo: Kyodo\/AP\" data-qa=\"BaseImage-handleRenderImage-StyledImage\" class=\"e1gf69pb2 css-6ikqhs e445x7d0\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/d8db3227-079b-4b0b-bbb6-8c4447057675_ea2c801f.jpg\" title=\"Waves of a tsunami hit residences after a powerful earthquake in Natori, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, on March 11, 2011. Photo: Kyodo\/AP\"\/>Waves of a tsunami hit residences after a powerful earthquake in Natori, Miyagi prefecture, Japan, on March 11, 2011. Photo: Kyodo\/AP<\/p>\n<p datatype=\"p\" data-qa=\"Component-Component\" class=\"e8zc9q40 css-1c6uqr6 ec74h0k1\">Using crustal deformation data from 2013 to 2023, the team calculated the rate at which the Philippine plate was moving and used that to estimate how much it was locking.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"A Japanese study has found that the locked zone in the Nankai Trough is not permanent but changes&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62730,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[40718,40716,8,4841,17,40719,8516,33,40717,39682],"class_list":["post-62729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-japan","tag-bungo-channel","tag-eurasian-plate","tag-japan","tag-japan-meteorological-agency","tag-japanese","tag-kochi-prefecture","tag-nankai-trough","tag-nihon","tag-philippine-plate","tag-tokai-region"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.europesays.com\/japan\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}