NH Investment & Securities maintained its Buy rating and ₩133,000 (approximately $96) target price on South Korea’s Doosan Enerbility (034020.KS), projecting that policy momentum in the domestic and global nuclear power industry will continue through the run-up to the U.S. midterm elections. The stock closed at ₩80,700 (approximately $58) in the previous session, implying roughly 65% upside to the target.
In a report published on the 26th, NH Investment & Securities analyst Lee Min-jae wrote, “Policy momentum is continuing both domestically and internationally in the lead-up to the U.S. midterm elections, and valuation appeal relative to global peers has also improved.” He projected that order intake could accelerate meaningfully from next year, underpinned by the company’s competitive positioning in both large-scale nuclear reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs).
Doosan Enerbility shares had fallen for five consecutive sessions from the 18th through the 24th before surging 10.55% the previous day, as expectations for nuclear order momentum built on rising domestic and global electricity demand.
Dual Growth Engines: Nuclear and Gas Turbines
In the United States, nuclear investment is expanding beyond the federal government to include state governments, public institutions, and private companies. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is advancing construction of 10 large-scale nuclear reactors, while the Department of Commerce (DOC) is separately pursuing another 10. State governments and private enterprises are also formulating SMR deployment plans.
In South Korea, discussions on additional nuclear capacity have begun in light of medium- to long-term electricity demand growth tied to the “three mega-projects.” Early-stage movements toward new nuclear construction are also emerging in Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
Doosan Enerbility’s other core business, gas turbines, is also seen as having strong growth potential centered on North America. Power demand from North American Big Tech companies operating AI data centers continues to rise, while South Korea is expected to see increased demand from fuel switching and large-scale projects. In the second half of this year, the company is expected to determine whether it can secure new customers, including North American utilities.
Valuation Appeal Versus Global Peers
NH Investment & Securities also highlighted Doosan Enerbility’s valuation relative to global competitors. Global gas turbine manufacturers trade at an average 2030 EV/EBITDA (enterprise value relative to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of 18x, higher than Doosan Enerbility’s level. The firm noted that valuations can differ by more than twofold depending on the proportion of North American business.
Lee attributed the premium valuations of global peers to their substantial order backlogs and proven profitability. He noted that Doosan Enerbility also has more than half of its orderable large-scale nuclear and SMR pipeline through 2030 — approximately 50 gigawatts (GW) — concentrated in North America, and expects the North American share of its gas turbine business to grow as well. The increasing contribution of high-margin service revenue was also viewed positively.
Event Pipeline Through the Midterms
The upcoming calendar could provide additional support for the stock. NH Investment & Securities expects a series of nuclear-related events before the U.S. midterm elections, including high-level talks on the U.S.-South Korea nuclear cooperation agreement (date undetermined), the first U.S. investment announcement (expected in September), the draft of South Korea’s 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (October), and a nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia (expected October–November).
That said, the firm cautioned that short-term share price volatility could increase depending on the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, as the direction of nuclear policy may shift with the election results.