South Korea’s government has set a target to expand utility-scale renewable energy capacity to 220GW (gigawatts) by 2040. This represents roughly six times last year’s actual capacity of 37GW, with solar positioned as the near-term cornerstone of deployment and offshore wind slated for large-scale expansion over the medium to long term.
The Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment and the General Committee for the 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand held a public forum on the 26th at the Korea Electric Power Corporation’s South Seoul headquarters in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, where they unveiled a provisional outlook for renewable energy deployment through 2040. The Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand is a national plan that determines the scale and composition of required generation facilities based on projected electricity demand over the next 15 years.
According to the General Committee’s projections, utility-scale renewable energy capacity will grow to 100GW by 2030, 163GW by 2035, and 220GW by 2040. Including self-consumption solar installations, the 2040 figure reaches 236GW. Compared to the 2030 target, this represents a more than twofold increase within a decade—an ambitious trajectory.
By energy source, solar accounts for the largest share. Utility-scale solar is projected to expand from 31GW last year to 87GW in 2030, 122GW in 2035, and 155GW in 2040. Onshore wind will grow from 2GW to 6GW, 12GW, and 16GW over the same period. Offshore wind is expected to show the steepest growth trajectory, rising from 0.4GW to 3GW, 25GW, and 45GW.
The 2040 utility-scale renewable energy mix of 220GW consists of 155GW solar, 45GW offshore wind, 16GW onshore wind, and 4GW of other renewables.
Solar is designated as the key near-term power source given its relatively mature deployment conditions. The government’s analysis identified a 2040 solar market potential of 271GW. While a diffusion model using this as a saturation point yielded 132GW for 2040, the final projection was raised to 155GW to reflect the effect of concentrated policy efforts to accelerate deployment. Plans include expanding projects exempt from setback distance regulations—such as building rooftops and resident-participation projects—and utilizing industrial complexes, factory rooftops, agrivoltaic and floating solar installations, roads, railways, agricultural waterways, schools, parking lots, and traditional markets as key policy locations. Streamlined permitting and expanded grid infrastructure and energy storage systems (ESS) will be pursued in parallel.
For offshore wind, the government plans to designate development zones under government leadership, process multiple permitting procedures simultaneously, and secure support ports and dedicated installation vessels early to increase annual completion volumes. From 2036 onward, planned-location projects will enter full-scale construction, targeting annual deployment of approximately 4GW. This combines the existing permitted capacity of 24.6GW with an additional 20GW of new planned locations.
However, even with such a substantial expansion of renewables, meeting total electricity demand that incorporates the three major megaprojects—semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, and electric vehicles—appears challenging. The General Committee did not separately present a 2040 renewable energy generation forecast, but applying capacity factors of 15% for solar and 30% for wind yields an estimated annual solar and wind generation of approximately 364TWh (terawatt-hours) in 2040. This slightly exceeds 40% of total projected 2040 electricity demand (847.3–885.1TWh) that includes the three megaprojects.
Debate is expected to intensify over which generation sources will fill the electricity demand that renewables cannot cover. Large-scale nuclear power plants require extended timelines from planning to construction, and views on safety remain sharply divided. Kim Sung-hwan, Minister of Climate, Energy and Environment, said regarding additional nuclear plant construction: “We are not approaching this with predetermined answers. We intend to find the greatest common denominator through these forums and make decisions after gathering diverse opinions.”
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) generation could play a larger transitional role, but this also has limitations. Minister Kim noted, “Gas-fired generation will inevitably increase to some extent, and we need to discuss how to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from gas generation.” Since LNG is also a fossil fuel that emits greenhouse gases, minimizing conflicts with carbon neutrality goals during expansion remains a key challenge.
The government assesses that renewable energy has emerged as a core power source determining energy security and industrial competitiveness, beyond merely serving as a means to achieve carbon neutrality and national greenhouse gas reduction targets (NDCs). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewables accounted for 34% of total global electricity generation in 2025, up 8.7% from the previous year. New renewable energy installations reached 800GW, with new solar additions surpassing 600GW for the first time.
By contrast, South Korea’s renewable energy share of electricity generation stood at 9.7%, ranking 38th among the 38 OECD member countries. From an industrial perspective, global power sector investment in 2026 is projected at $1.6 trillion (approximately 2,214.2 trillion won), of which renewable energy investment is expected to account for 42%, or $665 billion (approximately 920.3 trillion won).
The government previously set targets through the 1st Basic Plan for Renewable Energy in May: 100GW of renewable capacity by 2030 and a renewable generation share of 30% or more by 2035. The renewable energy deployment outlook in this 12th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand extends and concretizes these policy goals through 2040.