Samsung Electronics has reportedly allocated approximately 70% of its memory production capacity through 2031 to long-term supply agreements (LTAs). The move comes as intensifying competition for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) driven by surging AI accelerator demand has pushed spot prices to as much as five times contract levels, prompting Big Tech companies to lock in supply through multi-year commitments.

According to the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) on the 31st, DRAM export volumes used in AI chip manufacturing—including HBM and low-power double data rate (LPDDR) memory—fell 13.2% from approximately 681.79 million units in May to 591.74 million units in July. In contrast, total DRAM export value rose 18.5% over the same period, from $11.42837 billion (approximately ₩15.6 trillion) to $13.55155 billion (approximately ₩18.5 trillion), while export unit prices surged 36.6% from $16.76 to $22.90.

CategoryMayJulyChangeExport volume~681.79 million units~591.74 million units-13.2%Export value$11.42837 billion$13.55155 billion+18.5%Export unit price$16.76$22.90+36.6%

The divergence between falling volumes and rising values stems from the transition to HBM4. Each successive HBM generation carries lower production yields, meaning HBM4—currently in early mass production—consumes more DRAM wafers than its predecessor HBM3E. Ahn Ki-hyun, executive director of the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, explained: “HBM4 prices are roughly double those of the previous generation, so as memory companies ramp production, the amount of DRAM consumed increases, ultimately reducing overall export volumes.”

The restructuring of sales toward LTA-centric models by Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) is also exacerbating spot market shortages. With Samsung’s memory division having locked in roughly 70% of its supply through 2031 under LTAs, buyers unable to secure contracted volumes are being pushed into the spot market. Key counterparties include Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, and other global Big Tech firms.

According to memory market research firm MegaGrid Supply, the spot price for HBM3E 36-gigabyte (GB) products stands at $2,100 (approximately ₩2.9 million). Given that LTA pricing is reportedly around ₩500,000 to ₩700,000 (approximately $365 to $510), spot prices are effectively 4 to 5 times higher. The HBM4 16-high product, currently in production ramp-up coordination, is priced at $3,500 (approximately ₩4.8 million) on the spot market without an LTA.

ProductSpot priceLTA priceSpot/LTA multipleHBM3E 36GB$2,100 (approximately ₩2.9M)approximately ₩500K–₩700K4–5xHBM4 16-high$3,500 (approximately ₩4.8M)Undisclosed (LTA volume prioritized)—

Both companies, judging that supply shortages are unlikely to ease in the near term, are pursuing capacity expansion on multiple fronts. Samsung Electronics’ Device Solutions (DS) division management is reviewing a plan to convert the S5 line—the only foundry (semiconductor contract manufacturing) line at its Pyeongtaek campus—to memory production as early as next year.

SK Hynix is reportedly exploring expansion of its production bases in Yongin and South Korea’s Honam region, as well as the possibility of establishing a joint venture fab in Japan with a local partner. Industry observers are paying close attention to the potential for SK Hynix to expand cooperation with Kioxia—Japan’s top NAND flash maker, in which SK Hynix is effectively the largest shareholder—to strengthen its influence within the global memory supply chain.

Note: SK Hynix holds a 14.19% stake in Kioxia through an investment vehicle (SPC2), making it the de facto largest shareholder. Toshiba, the previous largest shareholder, saw its stake reduced to 14.12% (as of August 2026).

The price surge is expected to translate directly into record-breaking earnings for both companies. Financial industry analysts project that both firms will once again post all-time-high results in the third quarter. Over the past month, the consensus estimate for Samsung Electronics’ Q3 performance stands at revenue of ₩206.6376 trillion (approximately $151.0 billion) and operating profit of ₩116.379 trillion (approximately $85.0 billion)—well above Q2 figures of ₩171.4995 trillion (approximately $125.3 billion) in revenue and ₩89.4924 trillion (approximately $65.4 billion) in operating profit. Crossing the ₩100 trillion (approximately $73.1 billion) operating profit threshold would mark the first time not only for any South Korean company but for any Big Tech firm globally.

SK Hynix is likewise projected to post Q3 revenue of ₩101.7573 trillion (approximately $74.3 billion), up 28.2% quarter-over-quarter, with operating profit of ₩79.1565 trillion (approximately $57.8 billion), a 30.7% increase.

CategoryQ2 actualQ3 consensusQoQ changeSamsung revenue₩171.4995T₩206.6376T+20.5%Samsung operating profit₩89.4924T₩116.379T+30.0%SK Hynix revenue—₩101.7573T+28.2%SK Hynix operating profit—₩79.1565T+30.7%

Market research firm TrendForce projected in a June report that tight DRAM supply conditions will persist, with HBM contract prices expected to rise at an even steeper pace in 2027—signaling that the current phase of supplier pricing power may not end anytime soon.

Ahn cautioned: “To resolve the semiconductor supply shortage, more production facilities must be built. Even when planned new fabs come online, the shortage will be alleviated rather than eliminated.”