The “Dead Man’s Switch” or Hand is a Russian concept dating back to the Cold War. It was a system designed to automatically launch a nuclear strike in the event the Soviet leadership was killed or incapacitated.
The North Koreans appear to believe their leadership is vulnerable given the relative ease with which Israel eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and other top figures.
A few days back, according to South Korean sources, they changed their constitution to mandate an automatic nuclear strike on the US if Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un were killed or otherwise incapacitated.
Why target the US? Because they believe a strike is more likely from the US, less so from South Korea.
For India, which is among 25-odd countries that maintains a mission in Pyongyang, the “Dead Man’s Switch” story may reinforce existing negative perceptions of the country: Pyongyang’s role in the nuclear black market run by Pakistani atomic scientist AQ Khan in the 1990s is well documented.
Khan got missile technology in exchange for the designs of uranium centrifuges. It enabled Pyongyang to set up a uranium enrichment plant by 2002, while Khan was able to refine, test and deploy the 1,500-km range, liquid-fuelled Ghauri missiles.
Is it the primary purpose of the Indian mission then, to keep an eye on North Korea’s nuclear antics? Possible, although North Korea has moved onto more sophisticated missile designs.
According to Niranjan Oak, a research analyst at the Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, India is wary of North Korea’s long-standing and often discreet military ties with Pakistan.
Though an economic dwarf, North Korea’s army of 1.3 million personnel is seen as formidable although the Ukraine war has showed up major gaps in the training and tactics of its personnel stationed there.
But Russia is known to be helping upgrade its military arsenal, so is China which may see a need to ensure its influence in Pyongyang stays steady. But do recall, Beijing along with Pakistan and North Korea made up the key players in the nuclear black market and any coming together of these actors triggers international concern, not only India’s.
It explains India’s continued provision of humanitarian aid to North Korea. China remains the north’s top trading partner but India was second many years ago with $250 million. Since then it seems to have slipped to sixth position.
Nevertheless, the north’s push to diversify relations away from its dependence on China is being keenly watched from New Delhi. Pyongyang does not appear inimical to India and it probably helps that this country’s role in the peace negotiations of the 1950s gives it a certain credibility.
On a lighter note, a North Korea film 72 Sigan or 72 Hours drew some interest at the recently concluded 15th Delhi International Film Festival. One understands that despite his onerous duties as Supreme Leader, Kim scripted and directed the movie. It had a familiar if propagandistic theme: the North Korean capture of Seoul in three days of fighting during the civil war. What can we say except perhaps more power to Kim!